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Poll: Obama edges ahead of McCain in Montana
Associated Press ^ | 10/23/08 | MATT GOURAS

Posted on 10/23/2008 12:46:39 PM PDT by Alter Kaker

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To: wbill; Cedric; Chet 99; Frantzie; GOP_Lady; HamiltonJay; impeachedrapist; IndependentWahoo; ...

http://www.msubillings.edu/CAS/NAMS/Poll2008%20Day-1.pdf


51 posted on 10/23/2008 1:48:30 PM PDT by Perdogg (Raila Amollo Odinga - community organizer)
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To: Yankee
Anyday now we'll see a headline saying: Obama edges ahead of McCain among White Supremacists

The weird thing is that it would be right in many cases. The neo-Nazi movement tends to support Democrats (especially liberals) because of their tepid support for Israel and appeament of Islamic fanatics, who the Neo-Nazis have allied themselves with. Both groups want to kill and expel outsiders, especially Jews, dontchaknow?

52 posted on 10/23/2008 1:50:16 PM PDT by SunStar (Democrats piss me off!)
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To: SunStar
Doesn't this add-up to 84%? And this is relevant? 4% different (not counting the margin of error), with 16% undecided?

See: #19

53 posted on 10/23/2008 1:56:41 PM PDT by Palin4President
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To: Alter Kaker

No way the red-neck independent minded Montana folks will vote for Obama.


54 posted on 10/23/2008 2:07:46 PM PDT by Gumdrop
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To: Perdogg

I know you sent me that link just to annoy me, right? :) Okay, here is what you want to know.

It is impossible to ascertain the breakdown by party ID, but you can glean the following. According to this poll, McCain had stronger support from Republicans than Obama did from Democrats. He also did slightly better among Democrats than Obama did with Republicans. Obama supposedly does about eight points better among Independents.

Now, here is what actually happened in 2004 in Montana:

R39 (95-5 Bush)
D32 (78-21 Kerry)
I (46-46)

Bush won the state by 20 points. He actually outperformed the predicted exit poll result (as reflected in the numbers I just posted) by 1.5 points. Note that Kerry got only 78 percent support from DEMOCRATS in Montana. Oh, and the state is 95% white.

Any questions?


55 posted on 10/23/2008 2:10:04 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Alter Kaker

If CA had the “Bradley effect”, then we must presume that MT has the “Ted Turner effect”. Also in WY, the Republican U.S. House candidate is trailing a liberal Democrat.


56 posted on 10/23/2008 2:11:36 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: Alter Kaker

If CA had the “Bradley effect”, then we must presume that MT has the “Ted Turner effect”. Also in WY, the Republican U.S. House candidate is trailing a liberal Democrat.


57 posted on 10/23/2008 2:11:59 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: Alter Kaker

If CA had the “Bradley effect”, then we must presume that MT has the “Ted Turner effect”. Also in WY, the Republican U.S. House candidate is trailing a liberal Democrat.


58 posted on 10/23/2008 2:12:10 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: Alter Kaker

Yeah, right.


59 posted on 10/23/2008 2:12:51 PM PDT by Boagenes (I'm your huckleberry, that's just my game.)
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To: scratcher

Frank Church has come out of the grave to endorse Oprah’s Obama. He said he wanted the CIA finished off now.


60 posted on 10/23/2008 2:14:05 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: scratcher

Frank Church has come out of the grave to endorse Oprah’s Obama. He said he wanted the CIA finished off now.


61 posted on 10/23/2008 2:14:11 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: Alter Kaker

They found the 200 democrats in the state and polled all of them at the same time.

I think Obama should spend all of his time until the election to go after this state. It could be the difference.


62 posted on 10/23/2008 2:33:04 PM PDT by Moconservative
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To: Alter Kaker

Yeah... right. Sure... Uh huh. (yawn)


63 posted on 10/23/2008 2:39:06 PM PDT by Jo Nuvark (Those who bless Israel will be blessed, those who curse Israel will be cursed. Gen 12:3)
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To: Alter Kaker

If this is true then Obama will win in a massive landslide.
Massive and he would be up at least 12 to 15 points nationally. I for one think this is ridiculous. Montana? get Real!!


64 posted on 10/23/2008 3:00:59 PM PDT by jimmur281974 (No Way! No How! NOBAMA)
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To: rjamesca

cool...
so the leftists students can vote in montana, and then submit absentee ballots in their home states..

Vote often!


65 posted on 10/23/2008 3:02:36 PM PDT by TV Dinners (....there's nothing else to eat)
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To: Alter Kaker

403 Brokeback Cowboys, lusting for Barry....


66 posted on 10/23/2008 3:13:22 PM PDT by La Enchiladita (To Colin Powell: How does it FEEL to be a traitor?)
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To: Alter Kaker
A new poll shows that Democrat Barack Obama could be edging ahead of Republican John McCain in Montana.

The operative word is "could"

67 posted on 10/23/2008 3:14:47 PM PDT by mlocher (USA is a sovereign nation)
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To: exist

They are only polling the hippies west of the Rockies. Central and Eastern Montana are much more conservative.


68 posted on 10/23/2008 3:16:54 PM PDT by CholeraJoe ("Everything's a lie and that's a fact. Life is a lemon and I want my money back!")
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To: BigSkyFreeper; kesg

This cannot be true.


69 posted on 10/23/2008 3:18:59 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (If Islam conquers the world, the Earth will be at peace because the human race will be killed off.)
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To: La Enchiladita

70 posted on 10/23/2008 3:21:13 PM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (You MUST see this website: http://www.neverfindout.org/)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

Apparently, the poofs go weak in the knees over Obama.
One such local talk show host, formerly conservative, has done so.
Good riddance.


71 posted on 10/23/2008 3:36:54 PM PDT by La Enchiladita (To Colin Powell: How does it FEEL to be a traitor?)
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To: La Enchiladita

This is unbelievable - John better make sure he doesn’t take some states for granted. While I don’t like polls, that he is still behind in states like Virginia and NC makes me nervous


72 posted on 10/23/2008 3:44:28 PM PDT by GerardKempf (Let's Get Over This)
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To: exist
This is a Missoula County-only poll! j/k
73 posted on 10/23/2008 3:46:09 PM PDT by Carling (I Am Joe the Plumber)
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To: Clintonfatigued

I responded to this poll elsewhere in this thread (insert “the exit poll data is my friend” here).


74 posted on 10/23/2008 4:39:36 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Alter Kaker

Hussein is going to win Montana?! Gag.

A sad period of American history is aobut to ensue.


75 posted on 10/23/2008 6:47:13 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (A vote for Hussein is insane!)
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To: wbill
Hi, just chiming in. I was doing a search on why Obama nearly won Montana and this thread came up. All the counties with the bigger cities went for Obama - Bozeman, Billings, Great Falls, Helena, Butte, and even in nowhere country, there were blue counties.

This was a squeaker. Montana can no longer officially be considered a "conservative" state.

Final vote for McCain/Obama was very close. McCain actually only got 50% of the vote to Obama's 47%. The difference being Ron Paul at 2% and Nader at 1%.

76 posted on 11/14/2008 2:14:45 PM PST by IYAS9YAS (Ever notice that Obama supporters chant "O-Bahm-AH" while McCain/Palin supporters chant "U-S-A".)
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To: Jim Hill
Just found this thread after doing a search on how Obama did so well in Montana. McCain 50%, Obama 47%, Paul 2% and Nader 1%. No 8 point lead for McCain there. Came damn close to going blue.

Even around the Air Force base in Great Falls, MT went blue.

77 posted on 11/14/2008 2:16:40 PM PST by IYAS9YAS (Ever notice that Obama supporters chant "O-Bahm-AH" while McCain/Palin supporters chant "U-S-A".)
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To: scratcher

Tagging on an old post. MT damn near went blue. All the populated areas went blue (even around the AF Base in Great Falls). McCain 50%, Obama 47%, Paul 2%, and Nader 1%. Too close.


78 posted on 11/14/2008 2:20:07 PM PST by IYAS9YAS (Ever notice that Obama supporters chant "O-Bahm-AH" while McCain/Palin supporters chant "U-S-A".)
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