YES TO MCCAIN-PALIN '08 FOR AMERICA
SARAH PALIN DRAWING HUGE CROWDS ALL ACROSS AMERICA
http://www.jeffhead.com/joeplumber.htm
Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
I bet he was just pulling those numbers out his ass.
Ok, but I think there has been some flight from 2004. The party numbers for us aren’t as strong. Can you replug those numbers for 2006?
Say what you will of McCain. He’s no idiot. They know something’s going on in PA. Something that is eluding the Obama camp.
Between Murtha and Obama’s comments — and how Obama was soundly rejected in the primaries, I think McCain will win PA.
And I think McCain knows it. If he does (and keeps Florida, Virginia and Ohio), he’s in GREAT shape to put this election to bed early on election night.
Doesn’t matter. No way 2006 was even close to 20 pt Dem advantage.
Or, Poof could just be blowing smoke. He is, after all, a Democrat...lying is second nature to them.
Ping
Ok let’s reshape our goal. Using 2006 numbers what would McCain NEED to win in PA?
I work in Philly, and let me tell you that all of the blue collar whites I know who usually vote Dem are uncomfortable with Obama and will not vote for him. If they don’t he can’t win here.
Either way, he’s admitting a weakness. The only reason he’d blow smoke like that is to make people think McCain is off his rocker, to discourage McCain voters in PA and keep the Zero bubble from bursting.
Either way you slice it, Pflouffe is admitting a real weakness in PA.
If McCain wins PA, it’s over. He should win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. With PA he could LOSE Bush states Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia and still win the election.
Send Sarah and Joe the Plumber to PA!
Turnout in 2006 was essentially the same percentage breakdown as it was in 2004. Contrary to common belief, people did not stay home - they voted for “change.”
BOOM !!!!
That’s great news. I see a lot of McCain signs in our part of Montgomery County too.
I don’t have the turnout numbers for 2006 on hand. And unfortunately solving it in that direction is not as simple (you have two equations with three unknowns).
I love you being a math geek too!
If I may add something..unlike 2006..I think (or hope) it is safe to say that the base is behind the ticket..(Thanks to Sarah)..we have seen what happens when the base is motivated..(victory)..and when it is not..(losses)..in other words..I think the base is going to show up..
Agreed. Pollsters make their living that way.
20% D’s here going for McCain is no stretch.
Thad McCotter’s Liberal-English Dictionary:
change: n. 1. The 1970s.
But they only lie to “help” the “common man”.
no...2004 was even, in 2006 was a 3% dem advantage, and a lot of dem candidates ran as conservatives, and our base stayed home.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I love you being a math geek as well! Thanks for the truth!
We love that you are, too ;-) Good analysis.
Again proving there are lies, damned lied, and statistics!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
True. But 95% of Repubs going for McCain is.
Survey USA poll out today has the following: 73% of GOPers for McCain, 75% of Dems for Obama, with independents breaking 54-33% for Obama.
How much has affiliation changed since 2006 do you think?
Cool. Neat analysis. I was trying to come up with a methodlogy for states Hillary won like FL, PA, OH and MI.
She got 50% in FL, Obama got 32% and Edwards got 14%. Repubs had 200,000 more votes. I think Obama will get less than 80% of Edwards & Hill voters in FL. Obama should be toast in FL.
Anyone know how big the Italian-American Rizzo Dems are around Philly these days? They were a powerhouse.
I would guess lower numbers than in the past but still a fairly large number. My guess is with Bishop Martino speaking up about abortion that Obama will get very few of their votes. The fact that Obama could be a Muslim or non-American will also help.
I also think Rendell and the Clintons will do nothing. I hope if Obama hands out “walking around money” that Rendell and his pals just pocket it. The Clintons & Rendell want to show Obama that Philly can play tougher hardball than Chicago.
On the other side of the state the clingers/rednecks/racists will also smash Obama. Murtha fired them up. McCain should win PA.
Here in Westmoreland County, I am now seeing new white McCain/Palin signs in yards that read “Another Democrat for McCalin*Palin” I counted only 2 signs for Obama on a 2 mile stretch of old Route 30 that always had plenty of Kerry and Gore signs.
I think we R’s ALWAYS have a healthy percentage of malcontents who protest the election. I don’t know if it’s any larger or smaller this election.
The most I would be willing to give the Democrats is a 2% edge. That alone is high for the last couple decades. The normal margins in Illinois, Pennsylvania, California, and New York easily make up that 2%, by the way.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Any feeling for Italian-Americans in Philly and Bishop Martino speaking about abortion. Are Italian-American still a large voting bloc there?
The Bishop is being as aggressive as he can getting the point acorss without naming names.
My guess is Italian-American Dems near Philly will not vote Obama.
EWWWWWWWWWWW!
Go check out this link.
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/
Are these the absentee ballots, early voting or what?
All through the primaries Mac jumped 5 pts on the last day and Obummer dropped against Hilary anywhere from 5-15pts. These polls are complete fraud.
Pray for W, McCain and Our Troops
Been wondering about the leak of the PA poll on the 14th, followed by the leak of Rendell’s emails and “nervous” statement. He asked 0bama to campaign with the Clintons, with three stops in Western PA.
Now 0bama can’t do that exactly, because it will be admitting that Rendell was right and they were in trouble. And if the Clinton’s come up with some cheap excuse, like the Zoroastrian New Year, to not campaign in PA, then it will be an effective Clinton endorsement of the PUMA pack. Could Rendell be putting the fix in?
Or could he just really be nervous? Probably the latter, but the former is more fun to think about.
I really detest seeing David Pflouffe on TV. He is just so full of himself and has that “Oh so superior than you” demeanor. He’s really irritating.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Obama is so over. On Nov 5 he will be yesterday’s news, a has been, actually, a never was. He will be humilated and so will all his creepy crummy commie cronies.
How do you figure? McCain only gets 73% of Republicans.
Ahem. “(Test from 10/20/2008 till 10/31/2008)”
I worked in Philly for four years recently, among blue-collar workers as well, and they will NOT vote for 0bama.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I think they and the media polls are making assumptions about new voters that won’t turn out to be true. That and McCain closing the gap with his ad push - which is now underway - is our path to victory.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I think he’s saying McCain’s GOP support in that SUSA poll was low as well. McCain will get much more than 73% of GOPers though - that’s in the silly zone.
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