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Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)
Fox News | 10/24/08 | Thane Banquo

Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo

Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.

So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.

If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!

So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's

In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!

If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.

The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: mccain; obama; pa2008; pflouffe
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Damn I love being a math geek.
1 posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:06 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
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To: Thane_Banquo

I bet he was just pulling those numbers out his ass.


2 posted on 10/24/2008 7:58:23 PM PDT by CSI007
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To: Thane_Banquo

Ok, but I think there has been some flight from 2004. The party numbers for us aren’t as strong. Can you replug those numbers for 2006?


3 posted on 10/24/2008 7:58:30 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Say what you will of McCain. He’s no idiot. They know something’s going on in PA. Something that is eluding the Obama camp.

Between Murtha and Obama’s comments — and how Obama was soundly rejected in the primaries, I think McCain will win PA.

And I think McCain knows it. If he does (and keeps Florida, Virginia and Ohio), he’s in GREAT shape to put this election to bed early on election night.


4 posted on 10/24/2008 7:58:50 PM PDT by rom (Keep Senator Government from Spreading YOUR Wealth! McCain/Palin '08!)
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To: Norman Bates

Doesn’t matter. No way 2006 was even close to 20 pt Dem advantage.


5 posted on 10/24/2008 7:59:20 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Or, Poof could just be blowing smoke. He is, after all, a Democrat...lying is second nature to them.


6 posted on 10/24/2008 7:59:34 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (A vote for Hussein is insane!)
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To: HamiltonJay

Ping


7 posted on 10/24/2008 8:00:02 PM PDT by tatown
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To: Thane_Banquo

Ok let’s reshape our goal. Using 2006 numbers what would McCain NEED to win in PA?


8 posted on 10/24/2008 8:00:45 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: rom

I work in Philly, and let me tell you that all of the blue collar whites I know who usually vote Dem are uncomfortable with Obama and will not vote for him. If they don’t he can’t win here.


9 posted on 10/24/2008 8:01:16 PM PDT by Asceticon
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To: Recovering_Democrat; CSI007

Either way, he’s admitting a weakness. The only reason he’d blow smoke like that is to make people think McCain is off his rocker, to discourage McCain voters in PA and keep the Zero bubble from bursting.

Either way you slice it, Pflouffe is admitting a real weakness in PA.


10 posted on 10/24/2008 8:01:46 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: rom

If McCain wins PA, it’s over. He should win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. With PA he could LOSE Bush states Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia and still win the election.

Send Sarah and Joe the Plumber to PA!


11 posted on 10/24/2008 8:01:54 PM PDT by WatchYourself (McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: Norman Bates

Turnout in 2006 was essentially the same percentage breakdown as it was in 2004. Contrary to common belief, people did not stay home - they voted for “change.”


12 posted on 10/24/2008 8:02:15 PM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: Thane_Banquo

BOOM !!!!


13 posted on 10/24/2008 8:02:31 PM PDT by Deetes (N0BAMA)
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To: Asceticon

That’s great news. I see a lot of McCain signs in our part of Montgomery County too.


14 posted on 10/24/2008 8:02:49 PM PDT by Think free or die
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To: Norman Bates

I don’t have the turnout numbers for 2006 on hand. And unfortunately solving it in that direction is not as simple (you have two equations with three unknowns).


15 posted on 10/24/2008 8:03:28 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: Thane_Banquo

I love you being a math geek too!


16 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:03 PM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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To: Thane_Banquo

If I may add something..unlike 2006..I think (or hope) it is safe to say that the base is behind the ticket..(Thanks to Sarah)..we have seen what happens when the base is motivated..(victory)..and when it is not..(losses)..in other words..I think the base is going to show up..


17 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:07 PM PDT by BerniesFriend
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To: CSI007

Agreed. Pollsters make their living that way.


18 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:15 PM PDT by rdl6989 (What isn't above Obama's pay grade?)
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20% D’s here going for McCain is no stretch.


19 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:33 PM PDT by Hones (Ok I admit it -I love Sarah Palin)
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To: Ingtar

Thad McCotter’s Liberal-English Dictionary:

change: n. 1. The 1970s.


20 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:58 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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