Skip to comments.Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)
Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
For the most part, that tends to be how it works. But there's the separate question of resource allocation. If McCain is spending money to chase Pennsylvania, he's not spending that money in North Carolina, Virginia or Ohio. National trends are most important, but localized trends happen as well or else you wouldn't have local campaigns.
I think because some of the Dems that won’t vote for O will go to McCain the blue collar guy that doesn’t trust him. That’s just my theory and the independents that will break for McCain.
Yeah, I don’t buy that one bit.
By the by... IN and NC will be an interesting lab test on whether a politician can literally buy the votes of an otherwise politically hostile state. He has poured millions and millions to IN, has visited there over 30 times. But it is still a state that hasn’t gone Dem since 64 and Bush won by 20. Sure, McCain’s opposition to ethanol subsidies don’t help.
Indiana reports first in the nation at 630 EST.. If they report in with McCain 10 or better, it will be our first sign that the polls were busted this cycle, like in ‘96.
I will bet anything that he will not lose NC, my husband is from there. There are too many blue dog Dems, his whole family is an example they are voting McCain. It’s just my thoughts on NC. That’s a big military state.
My husband is an HM2 (FMF) I read your bio...and he’s from NC. I was a DT until they merged HM/DT. I got out in 2006 after 10 years and my husband is still in. Thanks for your service.
Mark Levin said to dy (he lives in VA) that the McCain ads are now all coming out.
You mean, like Obama's abysmal performance in PA during the primaries? The fact that PA was a very closely contested state in both 2000 and 2004, and now they are running a Republican who will be stronger in PA than Southerner Bush was against a Democrat who will be weaker than Gore or Kerry? Or that "bitter people who cling to religion and guns" comment in San Francisco?
Gee, I dunno what the McCain people could possibly be thinking. After all, there are all those PA polls with 15 point Dem samples showing Obama up by 13 points. Doesn't McCain believe these polls?
The 2004 numbers will be more relevant because they more accurately reflect what to expect with the higher turnout you get in a Presidential election.
43D, 38R, 19I in 2006. But this was a mid-year election, where many PA voters who voted in 2004 did not vote in 2006. The 2004 breakdown, which also happens to be how the state actually voted in both 2004 and 2000 (the last two previous Presidential electoins), is far more relevant to projecting turnout by party ID in 2008.
“Survey USA poll out today has the following: 73% of GOPers for McCain, 75% of Dems for Obama, with independents breaking 54-33% for Obama.”</i>
“In thirty-six states, the party affiliation weights for democrats used by SUSA was five points or more higher than in 2006, a high-water mark for democrats. In twenty states, the party afiiliation weights for democrats used by SUSA was ten points or more higher than in 2006, and in eight states, the party affiliation weights used for democrats by SUSA was thirteen points or more higher than in 2006. Significant battleground states affected by this bias are as follows:
Pennsylvania: D+5 in 2006, SUSA using D+19, 15 point variance
Indiana: R+14 in 2006, SUSA using R+1, 13 point variance
Nevada: R+7 in 2006, SUSA using D+6, 13 point variance
Colorado: R+3 in 2006, SUSA using D+9, 12 point variance
Iowa: R+2 in 2006, SUSA using D+10, 12 point variance
Virginia: R+3 in 2006, SUSA using D+9, 12 point variance
Ohio: D+3 in 2006, SUSA using D+13, 10 point variance
Missouri: R+1 in 2006, SUSA using D+7, 8 point variance
North Carolina: R+1 in 2006, SUSA using D+5, 6 point variance
I am not a math geek, but, in order for Obama to beat McCain in Pa ( Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania! ) Obama would have to have 20 pts higher turnout than the GOP .. am I correct ?
Pa is one of the first east coast EST state... so ? a lot of voters will be keeping a eye out on Pa, Florida, and Ohio.
Does anyone know what the internals look like on the polls in Oregon? I heard that Obama has a 14 pt. advantage here, but I live in one of the burbs outside of Portland, and the yard signs & bumber stickers (which aren’t many) are pretty even. In the last election I saw Kerry signs & stickers about 4/1 over Bush right before the election and I just don’t see that this time around.
I know my state usually goes democratic, but I sure am not seeing much support for either candidate in the general population. My children tell me most of their friends have parents voting for McCain. Either my children only pick friends from conservative families, or the figures here are really way off. Most of the adults I know are also voting for McCain here, but I know many of these same adults did vote for Kerry in the last election.
I love having a math geek around to counter the media's BS. :)
“Most of the adults I know are also voting for McCain here, but I know many of these same adults did vote for Kerry in the last election.”
Wow, really? That’s great news....
Whatever "they" don't want you to do, DO 10X HARDER AND LONGER!
Re: “Here in Westmoreland County, I am now seeing new white McCain/Palin signs in yards that read Another Democrat for McCalin*Palin I counted only 2 signs for Obama on a 2 mile stretch of old Route 30 that always had plenty of Kerry and Gore signs.”
It’s amazing I haven’t gotten into an accident here in L.A. as I drive around, eyes riveted on vehicle bumpers and peoples’ yards. Naturally there are lots more stickers/signs for Obama, but what seems odd is that compared to about a month ago I’d swear there are fewer bumper stickers visible. And, there are just a few MORE for McCain-Palin. They were a real rarity to begin with.
By no means would I expect a close election in a place like CA, but it’s interesting nonetheless. I suspect there may be even MORE McCain supporters out here but we are very nervous about signage due to the amounts of vandalism going on everywhere. No one disturbs the Obama stuff as “our” side just doesn’t do much of that sort of thing.
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