Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
It was a test they were conducting. Not early voting or anything else.
One thing people need to understand about unions in the year 2008: very few union members work in the private sector. The huge majority of "union" workers are government workers, members of AFSCME and SEIU and the postal workers. People like autoworkers and teamsters and steelworkers are a small minority. When you talk about "the union vote" you are in reality talking mostly about minority government drones, not the lunchbucket Reagan democrats of the eighties. Goobermint parasites won't go for McCain.
I don’t think they know yet.
Amish and Mennonites are allowed to vote and sometimes do but I would guess not in very high percentages. In 2004 there was a news story about them voting for Bush, but it didn’t help carry PA.
“..BUT there is no reason to give up hope yet or to take these polls to heart.” ~ theophilusscribe
Exactly. bttt
PUMA (”PARTY UNITY MY A$$”) -— “And they’re NOT being polled accurately.”
First some comments:
“We all remember Harriet Christian; the lady who made a big scene after the DNC gave the nomination to B. Hussein. Well, Harriet and other PUMAs are taking weekend bus tours every weekend into PA. Check it out: http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/10/22/get-on-board-harriet%e2%80%99s-bus/
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I’ll say one thing for the PUMA’s too, they are very organized and when it comes to getting things done, they don’t mess around. 34
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“I was reading one of their forums and some of them are now listening [noon to 3 AM dial] on a regular basis to Hannity and Rush, and even Coulter (when’s she’s on Hannity and Colmes) with new ears. < http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/today.guest.html > Back in 1998, Rush is what turned me on to conservatism. I think if some of them listen long enough, they’ll discover Limbaugh is not the racist like they have been told and actually very smart when it comes to how the Dems operate. It’s hard to go back once you’ve had your eyes opened. It’s been 10 years now for me, and while I was never a Democrat per se, I was fairly brainwashed toward liberal/pop culture think. 30
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There is a guy a few streets down that always had Gore, Kerry and Dem signs. I think he is retired union. I have been watching his house because he always has yard signs. Today he has a McCain sign up. Other Dem houses I footnote in my head that had Kerry/Gore signs have no signs or McCain. ... McCain versus Obama is about 70 to 1. There are probably 2 to 1 or 2.5 to 1 more McCain signs then Bush 2000/2004. I think people are a lot more motivated. 44
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I normally wouldn’t believe stuff like this except for two women in my office. Both were ardent Hillary supporters in the primary. Both have told me they will be voting for McCain. I was very shocked when they each told me this because both of these women are feminist. They resent like hell the way the MSM treated Hillary and crowned Obama. They also said they did not like the way the MSM has treated Sarah Palin. Like I said I was shocked because I thought both of these women would never vote Republican. Maybe there is hope for this country! 46
Win or lose, Obama may have broken the Democratic Party
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2113100/posts
By Christopher Cook
I talk to them every day.
To call them “disgruntled Hillary supporters” is to drastically underestimate who they are and what has happened to their thinking. To call them “disgruntled Hillary supporters” suggests that they’re only upset at Hillary’s loss in the primary, and that they’ll be back after the anger settles.
Wrong.
Okay, that will undoubtedly be true of some of thembut not the ones I’ve been talking to. The ones with whom I ..have been speaking will NOT be back under the Democrats’ tent any time soon, and possibly ever.
You see, they didn’t just get upset at a loss, they saw something in the Democratic Party that they didn’t like.
Now, you and I will tell them, “oh, that’s been there for a long time.” I myself, especially after a recent improvement to my education on the subject, might suggest that what they see now has been creeping in since the start of the Wilson administration.
For right now, though, those details don’t matter. What matters is that they’ve seen the leftist rot eating away at an American political party.
The ones with whom we are in contact are not leaving the party out of some petulance at a primary loss, they’re leaving the party because that rot has been exposed to them.
Barack Obama has lifted up the carpet and showed them the rotting floorboards (or teeming roacheswhatever metaphor you like) underneath.
Obama represents the far left, and he will bring them in with him if he wins.
And, as scary as that prospect is, he has at least done us the favor of making the Democrats leftward lurch sufficiently obvious that it has awoken and angered a significant subset of the Democrats’ base.
They’re angryat what they see in the party, in the media, and in the radical leftist groups committing so much crime on Obama’s behalf. . .
They’re working HARD for McCain . . .
They’re making quiet confessions of conservative views and open declarations that they will never vote Democrat again . . .
And they’re NOT being polled accurately.
They’ve also got a pretty serious manifesto up at Just Say No Deal. I will include the first portion of the text here, with a link to continue reading.
This is not a transitory phenomenon; this is a sea-change:
We Clinton Supporters and bloggers have been viewing the death of the Democratic Party through the lens of a coup or hostile takeover by its liberal left wing. We witnessed in disbelief as our party became the party of violence, sexism, misogyny, racism, thuggery, theft, corruption, caucus fraud, and voter registration fraud.
Before casting a vote, Centrist Dems and all other Americans must stop looking at the current Democratic Party through the perception they have of what the Democratic Party once meant.
that party was dead and buried on may 31, 2008
This is not your grandmother’s left wing (or maybe it is). What is now being uncovered is that the takeover of the Democratic Party is being orchestrated by a group of people with socialist/marxist beliefs, with a pinch of fascism sprinkled inbeing led by a hand picked, groomed and marketed messiah under the guise of “progressivism”with a belief system that states the ends justify the means. This may also explain why well over 90% of the African American population is voting for this candidate, and though some of it has to do with his race, more may be because of his socialist philosophy.
barack obama is that hand picked candidate
Hillary Clinton was systematically destroyed by the “Democratic Party” in the primaries. We may debate her strengths and weaknesses as a candidate, but not being part of the ‘master plan’, she was quite simply irrelevant.
On the other hand, Barack was spoon fed his current core beliefs for decades, and is a willing participant in the downfall of America as you know it. The candidate who has shattered all fund raising records, is now deeply in political debt to his radical associations.
It’s time to understand where this “alien” democratic party is heading with Obama in the foreground and his numerous radical socialist/marxist associates in the background. Let’s start with a history lesson . . .
Continue reading here, < http://www.justsaynodeal.com/> about seven paragraphs down.
If the DNC and Democratic Party structure isn’t seriously worried about this, they should be. They may be drunk on Obamahol now, and they may even win the day, but when they sober up, they’re going to see that they’ve lost a number of friends.
I think Obama nationwide may get a handful of votes from Italian-Americans. Even the strong union I-A will not vote Obama.
I wonder with the I-A and Jewish vote if McCain could pull an upset win in NJ. Zogby’s BS had one datapoint that I expected but no one is mentioned - McCain is pulling more Jewish voters that Obama.
In FL - Kerry got 77% of the Jewish. Obama is expected to get 57%. I think he will be lucky to get 50% which will hurt Obama.
I see little enthusiasm in FL for Obamabi.
I think the little secret that no one in McCain, Obama and the MSM is mentioning is the Blue Dog and Hillary Dems who will not vote for Obama. Call it racism, call it revenge for Obama & ACORN screwing Hillary & her supporters, call it some people are actually worried about Obama’s terrorist pals, or whatever.
Also do Blue Dog Dems think Obama has foreign connections, muslim, friends with terrorists, etc. all the disturbing issues Obama has. These Blue Dogs are very patriotic and they are heavily in SE and many in the rust belt. I know they are in N and Central FL. NC, VA, OH and PA.
We saw it in the primaries. In FL in the primaries - 68% of Democrats voted against Obama. My guess is any state Hillary did well in - Obama will lose. What were the states where she had blowouts? PA? OH? Even MI?
These voters in their heads will have many conflicting demands:
1. Pro-Obama thoughts - Party, Union etc
2. Anti-Obama thought - Obama’s very questionable background, NRA is against Obama, maybe abortion, race, bitter clingers, racist/redneck slurs.
I think Obama will have a very tough time in states Hillary beat him in. If Obama loses, the Clintons regain the Dem Party. If Obama wins - the Dem Party becomes the Obama ACORN Dem Party.
Excellent!! Again, thanks for posting.
I’ve been a little skeptical of the PUMAs, thinking they would forgive and forget in the end. But this is truly heartening! I didn’t realize how hard they are working!
. . . And they are listening to Rush and Hannity . . . PHENOMENAL!
Most of my relatives that lived in N. NJ left. They were tired of being taxed to death.
I bet lot of bedroom communities with Wall Street workers are devastated.
What caused it? Fannie/Freddie/ACORN/CRA Lawsuits. I wish the public understood it. Dems are so guily on that. The Dems are trying to blame Wall Street. WS screwed up but Fannie & Freddie started the virus to infect the banking system.
See Obama Ayers and Cloward-Piven Strategy
The old weighted average trick, eh? Well done.
It is Clear that the Fauxbama camp is completely and UTTERLY clueless about PA, and the Rust Belt in general.
I have said it before and I’ll say it again... McCain will take PA, and I believe at least 1 more rust belt state that went Kerry last time.
He’s got huge problems, has from day one and and his people are so arrogant they can’t realize it.
Depends on where the poll was taken.
527 likely voters is NOT a huge sample.
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