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Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)
Fox News | 10/24/08 | Thane Banquo

Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo

Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.

So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.

If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!

So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's

In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!

If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.

The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: mccain; obama; pa2008; pflouffe
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To: Norman Bates
Even if ACORN signed up a lot of new voters, the problem isn't get them registered. The problem is motivating them to vote, which many first time voters might not do if they think Obama has the election wrapped up.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

41 posted on 10/24/2008 8:15:45 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Obama is so over. On Nov 5 he will be yesterday’s news, a has been, actually, a never was. He will be humilated and so will all his creepy crummy commie cronies.


42 posted on 10/24/2008 8:16:07 PM PDT by HerrBlucher
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To: goldstategop
If Obama is getting 75% of Dems, then he's in trouble. He can't win with that even with two thirds of Independents breaking for him. That is if the Survey USA figures are really accurate.

How do you figure? McCain only gets 73% of Republicans.

43 posted on 10/24/2008 8:16:09 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: 1035rep

Ahem. “(Test from 10/20/2008 till 10/31/2008)”


44 posted on 10/24/2008 8:16:15 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: Asceticon
BUMP to what you said about blue-collar whites in Philly.

I worked in Philly for four years recently, among blue-collar workers as well, and they will NOT vote for 0bama.

45 posted on 10/24/2008 8:17:31 PM PDT by happygrl (we are all plumbers now!)
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To: Recovering_Democrat
"He is, after all, a Democrat...lying is second FIRST nature to them.
46 posted on 10/24/2008 8:17:41 PM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true.)
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To: Alter Kaker
Because a Democrat usually gets 90%. Algore got 92% and Kerry got 89%. We know the rest of the story.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

47 posted on 10/24/2008 8:18:53 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

I think they and the media polls are making assumptions about new voters that won’t turn out to be true. That and McCain closing the gap with his ad push - which is now underway - is our path to victory.


48 posted on 10/24/2008 8:20:34 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Alter Kaker
I find hard to believe almost quarter of Republicans are switching to Obama. But Obama is losing more Democrats than McCain is losing Republicans!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

49 posted on 10/24/2008 8:21:28 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

I think he’s saying McCain’s GOP support in that SUSA poll was low as well. McCain will get much more than 73% of GOPers though - that’s in the silly zone.


50 posted on 10/24/2008 8:22:39 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Hey look, weirder crap has happened :)


51 posted on 10/24/2008 8:23:36 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Norman Bates
I work in a mixed neighborhood and pool everyone.All the blacks except for 2 back woman were for him.All the Hillary girls went to Sarah except for 4 .The men are for McCain except for one and he says all his friends are Dem racists.Hillary would have won here but O bama will lose.This is from a rednecked,racist,clinging to my guns and religion bitter person:)
52 posted on 10/24/2008 8:23:42 PM PDT by fatima (Let's Go Phillies.)
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To: Norman Bates
I don't know about that but the Hillary voters can't bring themselves to be enthusiastic about Obama. So you have a lot of disenchanted Democrats for whom he was their 2nd choice, mind you.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

53 posted on 10/24/2008 8:25:23 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Obama is worried about PA which is why he risked goign to an all-black rally in Philly. Unfortunately the media is so in the tank for him, they made no mention of this of course.

Philadelphia will drive up Obama’s margins by 400k+ the same as Kerry.

The blue-collar areas in eastern PA and around Pittsburg will go about even which is lower than Kerry’s numbers.

The big problem is Philadelphia’s suburbs where they’ve been hit hard by the stock market and mortage crisis. Mac was suppose to run strong here but the financial crisis has hit home hard. I think his mortage plan is aimed at these people and people in suburbs around the nation where he needs a strong showing in order to become president.


54 posted on 10/24/2008 8:26:08 PM PDT by DiogenesLaertius
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To: rom

I’m wondering how NY will go. They are dems and Hillary supporters, but will the disgruntled dem/loyal Hillary supporters cut into the dem vote enough to unseat obama?


55 posted on 10/24/2008 8:26:34 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: fatima

Are you in Lancaster?


56 posted on 10/24/2008 8:27:28 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: metmom
New York is safe for Obama. They could put Joe Stalin on the ballot in NY and CA and he would win.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

57 posted on 10/24/2008 8:27:50 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: HerrBlucher

Agreed... BUT... Obama is like a bad character from a horror movie.... he will keep coming back and I don’t wan’t a sequel to this cr@ppy movie...

IF (as we both suspect) he loses the election — we must keep up the pressure and keep the spotlight on the skeletons in his closet... the GOP needs to find someone to run against him for Senate seat and we need to pound him on his lies until he is known for what he is... an unreformed socialist who hates America


58 posted on 10/24/2008 8:27:52 PM PDT by NYC_BULLMOOSE ("extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice" -- BG)
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To: Asceticon
Same story on the west side of the state... it might not be all the blue collar whites that don't trust 0, but it's a bunch.

Murtha calling us rednecks and racists surely didn't help him or 0 much either.

59 posted on 10/24/2008 8:28:56 PM PDT by GCC Catholic (Sour grapes make terrible whine.)
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To: 1035rep

(Test from 10/20/2008 till 10/31/2008)


60 posted on 10/24/2008 8:31:07 PM PDT by TaxPayer2000 (The United States shall guarantee to every state in this union a republican form of government,)
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