Skip to comments.Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)
Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
I bet he was just pulling those numbers out his ass.
Ok, but I think there has been some flight from 2004. The party numbers for us aren’t as strong. Can you replug those numbers for 2006?
Say what you will of McCain. He’s no idiot. They know something’s going on in PA. Something that is eluding the Obama camp.
Between Murtha and Obama’s comments — and how Obama was soundly rejected in the primaries, I think McCain will win PA.
And I think McCain knows it. If he does (and keeps Florida, Virginia and Ohio), he’s in GREAT shape to put this election to bed early on election night.
Doesn’t matter. No way 2006 was even close to 20 pt Dem advantage.
Or, Poof could just be blowing smoke. He is, after all, a Democrat...lying is second nature to them.
Ok let’s reshape our goal. Using 2006 numbers what would McCain NEED to win in PA?
I work in Philly, and let me tell you that all of the blue collar whites I know who usually vote Dem are uncomfortable with Obama and will not vote for him. If they don’t he can’t win here.
Either way, he’s admitting a weakness. The only reason he’d blow smoke like that is to make people think McCain is off his rocker, to discourage McCain voters in PA and keep the Zero bubble from bursting.
Either way you slice it, Pflouffe is admitting a real weakness in PA.
If McCain wins PA, it’s over. He should win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. With PA he could LOSE Bush states Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia and still win the election.
Send Sarah and Joe the Plumber to PA!
Turnout in 2006 was essentially the same percentage breakdown as it was in 2004. Contrary to common belief, people did not stay home - they voted for “change.”
That’s great news. I see a lot of McCain signs in our part of Montgomery County too.
I don’t have the turnout numbers for 2006 on hand. And unfortunately solving it in that direction is not as simple (you have two equations with three unknowns).
I love you being a math geek too!
If I may add something..unlike 2006..I think (or hope) it is safe to say that the base is behind the ticket..(Thanks to Sarah)..we have seen what happens when the base is motivated..(victory)..and when it is not..(losses)..in other words..I think the base is going to show up..
Agreed. Pollsters make their living that way.
20% D’s here going for McCain is no stretch.
Thad McCotter’s Liberal-English Dictionary:
change: n. 1. The 1970s.
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