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Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)
Fox News | 10/24/08 | Thane Banquo

Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo

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Damn I love being a math geek.
1 posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:06 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
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To: Thane_Banquo

I bet he was just pulling those numbers out his ass.


2 posted on 10/24/2008 7:58:23 PM PDT by CSI007
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To: Thane_Banquo

Ok, but I think there has been some flight from 2004. The party numbers for us aren’t as strong. Can you replug those numbers for 2006?


3 posted on 10/24/2008 7:58:30 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Say what you will of McCain. He’s no idiot. They know something’s going on in PA. Something that is eluding the Obama camp.

Between Murtha and Obama’s comments — and how Obama was soundly rejected in the primaries, I think McCain will win PA.

And I think McCain knows it. If he does (and keeps Florida, Virginia and Ohio), he’s in GREAT shape to put this election to bed early on election night.


4 posted on 10/24/2008 7:58:50 PM PDT by rom (Keep Senator Government from Spreading YOUR Wealth! McCain/Palin '08!)
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To: Norman Bates

Doesn’t matter. No way 2006 was even close to 20 pt Dem advantage.


5 posted on 10/24/2008 7:59:20 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Or, Poof could just be blowing smoke. He is, after all, a Democrat...lying is second nature to them.


6 posted on 10/24/2008 7:59:34 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (A vote for Hussein is insane!)
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To: HamiltonJay

Ping


7 posted on 10/24/2008 8:00:02 PM PDT by tatown
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To: Thane_Banquo

Ok let’s reshape our goal. Using 2006 numbers what would McCain NEED to win in PA?


8 posted on 10/24/2008 8:00:45 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: rom

I work in Philly, and let me tell you that all of the blue collar whites I know who usually vote Dem are uncomfortable with Obama and will not vote for him. If they don’t he can’t win here.


9 posted on 10/24/2008 8:01:16 PM PDT by Asceticon
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To: Recovering_Democrat; CSI007

Either way, he’s admitting a weakness. The only reason he’d blow smoke like that is to make people think McCain is off his rocker, to discourage McCain voters in PA and keep the Zero bubble from bursting.

Either way you slice it, Pflouffe is admitting a real weakness in PA.


10 posted on 10/24/2008 8:01:46 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: rom

If McCain wins PA, it’s over. He should win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. With PA he could LOSE Bush states Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia and still win the election.

Send Sarah and Joe the Plumber to PA!


11 posted on 10/24/2008 8:01:54 PM PDT by WatchYourself (McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: Norman Bates

Turnout in 2006 was essentially the same percentage breakdown as it was in 2004. Contrary to common belief, people did not stay home - they voted for “change.”


12 posted on 10/24/2008 8:02:15 PM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: Thane_Banquo

BOOM !!!!


13 posted on 10/24/2008 8:02:31 PM PDT by Deetes (N0BAMA)
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To: Asceticon

That’s great news. I see a lot of McCain signs in our part of Montgomery County too.


14 posted on 10/24/2008 8:02:49 PM PDT by Think free or die
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To: Norman Bates

I don’t have the turnout numbers for 2006 on hand. And unfortunately solving it in that direction is not as simple (you have two equations with three unknowns).


15 posted on 10/24/2008 8:03:28 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: Thane_Banquo

I love you being a math geek too!


16 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:03 PM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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To: Thane_Banquo

If I may add something..unlike 2006..I think (or hope) it is safe to say that the base is behind the ticket..(Thanks to Sarah)..we have seen what happens when the base is motivated..(victory)..and when it is not..(losses)..in other words..I think the base is going to show up..


17 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:07 PM PDT by BerniesFriend
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To: CSI007

Agreed. Pollsters make their living that way.


18 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:15 PM PDT by rdl6989 (What isn't above Obama's pay grade?)
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20% D’s here going for McCain is no stretch.


19 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:33 PM PDT by Hones (Ok I admit it -I love Sarah Palin)
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To: Ingtar

Thad McCotter’s Liberal-English Dictionary:

change: n. 1. The 1970s.


20 posted on 10/24/2008 8:04:58 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

But they only lie to “help” the “common man”.


21 posted on 10/24/2008 8:05:34 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: Ingtar

no...2004 was even, in 2006 was a 3% dem advantage, and a lot of dem candidates ran as conservatives, and our base stayed home.


22 posted on 10/24/2008 8:05:39 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Thane_Banquo
Pretty good with the math. From what we've seen so far voter turnout is the same as in 2004. Both sides dead even. The Democrats would need a turnout like in 2006 and they're not getting it.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

23 posted on 10/24/2008 8:06:15 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Thane_Banquo




YES TO MCCAIN-PALIN '08 FOR AMERICA





SARAH PALIN DRAWING HUGE CROWDS ALL ACROSS AMERICA







http://www.jeffhead.com/joeplumber.htm


24 posted on 10/24/2008 8:06:33 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Thane_Banquo

I love you being a math geek as well! Thanks for the truth!


25 posted on 10/24/2008 8:07:45 PM PDT by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: Thane_Banquo

We love that you are, too ;-) Good analysis.

Again proving there are lies, damned lied, and statistics!


26 posted on 10/24/2008 8:08:14 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: Norman Bates
The party numbers are surprising in the face of two unpopular wars and an unpopular Republican President. When you consider that and a weak economy, Obama should own this election. Instead he's LOSING in early voting in my state of Colorado!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

27 posted on 10/24/2008 8:08:15 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Hones
20% D’s here going for McCain is no stretch.

True. But 95% of Repubs going for McCain is.

Survey USA poll out today has the following: 73% of GOPers for McCain, 75% of Dems for Obama, with independents breaking 54-33% for Obama.

28 posted on 10/24/2008 8:08:29 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Ingtar

How much has affiliation changed since 2006 do you think?


29 posted on 10/24/2008 8:08:41 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Cool. Neat analysis. I was trying to come up with a methodlogy for states Hillary won like FL, PA, OH and MI.

She got 50% in FL, Obama got 32% and Edwards got 14%. Repubs had 200,000 more votes. I think Obama will get less than 80% of Edwards & Hill voters in FL. Obama should be toast in FL.

Anyone know how big the Italian-American Rizzo Dems are around Philly these days? They were a powerhouse.

I would guess lower numbers than in the past but still a fairly large number. My guess is with Bishop Martino speaking up about abortion that Obama will get very few of their votes. The fact that Obama could be a Muslim or non-American will also help.

I also think Rendell and the Clintons will do nothing. I hope if Obama hands out “walking around money” that Rendell and his pals just pocket it. The Clintons & Rendell want to show Obama that Philly can play tougher hardball than Chicago.

On the other side of the state the clingers/rednecks/racists will also smash Obama. Murtha fired them up. McCain should win PA.


30 posted on 10/24/2008 8:09:29 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: Think free or die

Here in Westmoreland County, I am now seeing new white McCain/Palin signs in yards that read “Another Democrat for McCalin*Palin” I counted only 2 signs for Obama on a 2 mile stretch of old Route 30 that always had plenty of Kerry and Gore signs.


31 posted on 10/24/2008 8:09:57 PM PDT by SkyHawk
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To: Alter Kaker

I think we R’s ALWAYS have a healthy percentage of malcontents who protest the election. I don’t know if it’s any larger or smaller this election.


32 posted on 10/24/2008 8:10:22 PM PDT by riri
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To: Norman Bates

The most I would be willing to give the Democrats is a 2% edge. That alone is high for the last couple decades. The normal margins in Illinois, Pennsylvania, California, and New York easily make up that 2%, by the way.


33 posted on 10/24/2008 8:11:01 PM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: Alter Kaker
If Obama is getting 75% of Dems, then he's in trouble. He can't win with that even with two thirds of Independents breaking for him. That is if the Survey USA figures are really accurate.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

34 posted on 10/24/2008 8:11:45 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Asceticon

Any feeling for Italian-Americans in Philly and Bishop Martino speaking about abortion. Are Italian-American still a large voting bloc there?

The Bishop is being as aggressive as he can getting the point acorss without naming names.

My guess is Italian-American Dems near Philly will not vote Obama.


35 posted on 10/24/2008 8:12:44 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: CSI007
"I bet he was just pulling those numbers out his ass."

EWWWWWWWWWWW!

36 posted on 10/24/2008 8:13:03 PM PDT by kimchi lover (Joe the Plumber is my Homeboy!)
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To: goldstategop

Go check out this link.

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

Are these the absentee ballots, early voting or what?


37 posted on 10/24/2008 8:14:08 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Thane_Banquo

All through the primaries Mac jumped 5 pts on the last day and Obummer dropped against Hilary anywhere from 5-15pts. These polls are complete fraud.

Pray for W, McCain and Our Troops


38 posted on 10/24/2008 8:14:20 PM PDT by bray (It's the Corruption Stupid)
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To: Frantzie

Been wondering about the leak of the PA poll on the 14th, followed by the leak of Rendell’s emails and “nervous” statement. He asked 0bama to campaign with the Clintons, with three stops in Western PA.

Now 0bama can’t do that exactly, because it will be admitting that Rendell was right and they were in trouble. And if the Clinton’s come up with some cheap excuse, like the Zoroastrian New Year, to not campaign in PA, then it will be an effective Clinton endorsement of the PUMA pack. Could Rendell be putting the fix in?

Or could he just really be nervous? Probably the latter, but the former is more fun to think about.


39 posted on 10/24/2008 8:14:39 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: Thane_Banquo

I really detest seeing David Pflouffe on TV. He is just so full of himself and has that “Oh so superior than you” demeanor. He’s really irritating.


40 posted on 10/24/2008 8:15:28 PM PDT by chris_bdba
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To: Norman Bates
Even if ACORN signed up a lot of new voters, the problem isn't get them registered. The problem is motivating them to vote, which many first time voters might not do if they think Obama has the election wrapped up.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

41 posted on 10/24/2008 8:15:45 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Obama is so over. On Nov 5 he will be yesterday’s news, a has been, actually, a never was. He will be humilated and so will all his creepy crummy commie cronies.


42 posted on 10/24/2008 8:16:07 PM PDT by HerrBlucher
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To: goldstategop
If Obama is getting 75% of Dems, then he's in trouble. He can't win with that even with two thirds of Independents breaking for him. That is if the Survey USA figures are really accurate.

How do you figure? McCain only gets 73% of Republicans.

43 posted on 10/24/2008 8:16:09 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: 1035rep

Ahem. “(Test from 10/20/2008 till 10/31/2008)”


44 posted on 10/24/2008 8:16:15 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: Asceticon
BUMP to what you said about blue-collar whites in Philly.

I worked in Philly for four years recently, among blue-collar workers as well, and they will NOT vote for 0bama.

45 posted on 10/24/2008 8:17:31 PM PDT by happygrl (we are all plumbers now!)
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To: Recovering_Democrat
"He is, after all, a Democrat...lying is second FIRST nature to them.
46 posted on 10/24/2008 8:17:41 PM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true ... I have no proof ... but they're true.)
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To: Alter Kaker
Because a Democrat usually gets 90%. Algore got 92% and Kerry got 89%. We know the rest of the story.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

47 posted on 10/24/2008 8:18:53 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

I think they and the media polls are making assumptions about new voters that won’t turn out to be true. That and McCain closing the gap with his ad push - which is now underway - is our path to victory.


48 posted on 10/24/2008 8:20:34 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Alter Kaker
I find hard to believe almost quarter of Republicans are switching to Obama. But Obama is losing more Democrats than McCain is losing Republicans!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

49 posted on 10/24/2008 8:21:28 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

I think he’s saying McCain’s GOP support in that SUSA poll was low as well. McCain will get much more than 73% of GOPers though - that’s in the silly zone.


50 posted on 10/24/2008 8:22:39 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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