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Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)
Fox News | 10/24/08 | Thane Banquo

Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo

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To: Thane_Banquo

Hey look, weirder crap has happened :)


51 posted on 10/24/2008 8:23:36 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Norman Bates
I work in a mixed neighborhood and pool everyone.All the blacks except for 2 back woman were for him.All the Hillary girls went to Sarah except for 4 .The men are for McCain except for one and he says all his friends are Dem racists.Hillary would have won here but O bama will lose.This is from a rednecked,racist,clinging to my guns and religion bitter person:)
52 posted on 10/24/2008 8:23:42 PM PDT by fatima (Let's Go Phillies.)
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To: Norman Bates
I don't know about that but the Hillary voters can't bring themselves to be enthusiastic about Obama. So you have a lot of disenchanted Democrats for whom he was their 2nd choice, mind you.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

53 posted on 10/24/2008 8:25:23 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Obama is worried about PA which is why he risked goign to an all-black rally in Philly. Unfortunately the media is so in the tank for him, they made no mention of this of course.

Philadelphia will drive up Obama’s margins by 400k+ the same as Kerry.

The blue-collar areas in eastern PA and around Pittsburg will go about even which is lower than Kerry’s numbers.

The big problem is Philadelphia’s suburbs where they’ve been hit hard by the stock market and mortage crisis. Mac was suppose to run strong here but the financial crisis has hit home hard. I think his mortage plan is aimed at these people and people in suburbs around the nation where he needs a strong showing in order to become president.


54 posted on 10/24/2008 8:26:08 PM PDT by DiogenesLaertius
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To: rom

I’m wondering how NY will go. They are dems and Hillary supporters, but will the disgruntled dem/loyal Hillary supporters cut into the dem vote enough to unseat obama?


55 posted on 10/24/2008 8:26:34 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: fatima

Are you in Lancaster?


56 posted on 10/24/2008 8:27:28 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: metmom
New York is safe for Obama. They could put Joe Stalin on the ballot in NY and CA and he would win.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

57 posted on 10/24/2008 8:27:50 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: HerrBlucher

Agreed... BUT... Obama is like a bad character from a horror movie.... he will keep coming back and I don’t wan’t a sequel to this cr@ppy movie...

IF (as we both suspect) he loses the election — we must keep up the pressure and keep the spotlight on the skeletons in his closet... the GOP needs to find someone to run against him for Senate seat and we need to pound him on his lies until he is known for what he is... an unreformed socialist who hates America


58 posted on 10/24/2008 8:27:52 PM PDT by NYC_BULLMOOSE ("extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice" -- BG)
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To: Asceticon
Same story on the west side of the state... it might not be all the blue collar whites that don't trust 0, but it's a bunch.

Murtha calling us rednecks and racists surely didn't help him or 0 much either.

59 posted on 10/24/2008 8:28:56 PM PDT by GCC Catholic (Sour grapes make terrible whine.)
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To: 1035rep

(Test from 10/20/2008 till 10/31/2008)


60 posted on 10/24/2008 8:31:07 PM PDT by TaxPayer2000 (The United States shall guarantee to every state in this union a republican form of government,)
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To: GCC Catholic
The West Of PA should go McCain. But to win the state he will need to win the suburbs around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. And pray the machine doesn't give Obama enough votes to offset it.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

61 posted on 10/24/2008 8:31:48 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
I find hard to believe almost quarter of Republicans are switching to Obama. But Obama is losing more Democrats than McCain is losing Republicans!

Not according to the poll I posted. Try again.

62 posted on 10/24/2008 8:31:59 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: WatchYourself
If McCain wins PA, it’s over. He should win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. With PA he could LOSE Bush states Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia and still win the election.

If McCain-Palin win Pennsylvania, this election is over. The only thing left will be to make sure McCain-Palin win the Popular Vote.

63 posted on 10/24/2008 8:32:16 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: All

face it guys...Obama is only appearing to win because of the financial crisis and skewed polls...his camp is not brilliant, but think about it, Mac HAS HAD moments of brilliance, he has not been perfect, but I do believe Mac has a smarter, sharper camp than Hussein does and strategically I think they have an edge over Obambi. Mac knows how to stage a late comeback that is victorious. Keep the faith but praying several times a day for God to deliver us from evil will also not hurt :)


64 posted on 10/24/2008 8:32:32 PM PDT by LegalEagle61 (If you are going to burn our flag, please make sure you are wearing it when you do!)
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To: NYC_BULLMOOSE

I think it will depend on the level of his defeat. If he is landslided I think he will shrink into oblivion. But if it is close, yes, he may try again. But he will going up against a much wiser hillary and her angry....VERY ANGRY PUMA’s.....good luck with all that bambi! LOL!


65 posted on 10/24/2008 8:32:37 PM PDT by HerrBlucher
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To: Alter Kaker
I'm sure its as accurate as anything else that's been out in the past couple of weeks. If the election is over, they'll never tell us why its so close.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

66 posted on 10/24/2008 8:34:42 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: fatima
All the blacks except for 2 back woman were for him.

It's just as much racism to vote FOR someone because of his skin color as it is to vote AGAINST someone because of his skin color.

67 posted on 10/24/2008 8:35:07 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: Frantzie

Any feeling for Italian-Americans in Philly and Bishop Martino speaking about abortion. Are Italian-American still a large voting bloc there?


Yes but not sure how much effect it will have.

There have been several high profile killings downtown in recent months, black on white, and police killed as well. Race tensions are high, which will lose BO white votes.


68 posted on 10/24/2008 8:35:18 PM PDT by Asceticon
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To: CSI007

Did you know that 47.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.


69 posted on 10/24/2008 8:35:22 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (G-d is not a Republican. But Satan is definitely a Democrat. And so is Obama.)
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To: goldstategop

and yet his people are campaigning and campaigning and campaigning all over the city — can’t walk 10 feet with some O-head harassing me to register, give money etc...

at first I thought it was about raising monety — now I think that Obama is interesting in “running-up the score” in states like NY (and maybe CA?) so that he can win the popular vote by a large(r) margin in the event that the electoral congress vote is close...

Also, it is very clear that Obama is trying to build a permanent “campaign” organization — in an Obama Administration (may god forbid it)they will be his street enforcers...


70 posted on 10/24/2008 8:35:33 PM PDT by NYC_BULLMOOSE ("extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice" -- BG)
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To: Frantzie
"Lynn Forester de Rothschild helped open the Democrats for McCain headquarters on Main Avenue in West Scranton. About 30 supporters turned out to welcome de Rothschild and speak out for the Republican ticket.
De Rothschild, 54, said she sees Northeast Pennsylvania – specifically Luzerne and Lackawanna counties – as the key to winning Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes. And, she said, whoever wins Pennsylvania will likely become the next president.
“Barack Obama has never had the mandate of Democrats,” she said. “And Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi ignored the 18 million people that voted for Hillary Clinton. They can’t be surprised at the 5 million to 7 million Clinton supporters who are now supporting McCain.”

Pumas have been spotted roaming the wilds of Pennsylvania.

71 posted on 10/24/2008 8:35:54 PM PDT by Sisku Hanne (The day begins and ends in Alaska.)
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To: BerniesFriend
"..(Thanks to Sarah)..we have seen what happens when the base is motivated..(victory)..and when it is not..(losses)..in other words..I think the base is going to show up.."

I agree with you that Sarah is a big motivator this election, but another even bigger motivation is not letting the Senate's most liberal a-holes get anywhere near the White House.

72 posted on 10/24/2008 8:36:50 PM PDT by libs_kma (NOBAMA. Keep the change)
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To: Thane_Banquo

I just drove through Southern and Eastern PA on my way up to Western NY, from the DC area of Virginia. I didn’t really have any evidence of strong support favoring one candidate or the other, from what I could see on the highway (I-70, the Turnpike, I-76, I-79, I-90), that is until I got to Erie.

Until I got to Erie, I was surprised that I saw almost NO bumper stickers on other cars, or campaign signs along the highway. I did have one guy pass me and honk as he waved, having seen my McCain bumper sticker.

Driving past/through Erie on I-90, and the remaining miles up ‘til the NY line, I was pleasantly surprised to see around five or six LARGE McCain/Palin signs along the side of the interstate, a few miles apart, for all to see! There were a few smaller signs here and there also. No Hussein signs in that area that I can recall. One Hussein bumper sticker that clings to memory because it was an “O’Bama” mock-Irish spelling, green with shamrocks and all...

Erie has historically been known as somewhat of a belwether American city, representing a cross-section of typical US cities or something along those lines.


73 posted on 10/24/2008 8:37:28 PM PDT by VigilantAmerican (We will not waver, we will not tire; we will not falter, we will not fail)
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To: goldstategop

It didn’t say that: the 27% of GOP voters are probably mostly undecided with 1-2% committed to a minor party candidate. Likewise the 25% of D’s.


74 posted on 10/24/2008 8:37:47 PM PDT by The_Reader_David (For real change stop electing lawyers: Fighter-Pilot/Hockey-Mom '08.)
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To: goldstategop
"New York is safe for Obama. They could put Joe Stalin on the ballot in NY and CA and he would win."

Sad, but true.

75 posted on 10/24/2008 8:38:11 PM PDT by kimchi lover (Joe the Plumber is my Homeboy!)
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To: Thane_Banquo; LadyNavyVet

Thought you’d like this.


76 posted on 10/24/2008 8:38:45 PM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (Democrats don't have opposable thumbs and are scared of vacuum cleaners, like my dog.)
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To: Asceticon

Sad but that will not help Obama at all. Race tensions have never been too good there.

I think Rendell and the machine & unions around Philly will do little or nothing based on what you told me.


77 posted on 10/24/2008 8:39:14 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: Sisku Hanne
Lynn Forester De Rothschild is one smart woman. If McCain wins PA, he will be the next President for sure.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

78 posted on 10/24/2008 8:40:11 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Norman Bates

Freepmail


79 posted on 10/24/2008 8:40:22 PM PDT by fatima (Let's Go Phillies.)
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To: The_Reader_David
Lots of undecideds. Hmmm... whoever breaks for one candidate or another the most will decide this election. So much for the independents, eh?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

80 posted on 10/24/2008 8:42:08 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: WatchYourself
If McCain wins PA, it’s over. He should win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. With PA he could LOSE Bush states Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia and still win the election.

You're forgetting New Mexico. If Obama loses PA but keeps all the other Kerry states + NM, IA, CO and VA he gets exactly 270 votes. That's enough to win.

That's not a crazy scenario, as Obama is +7 in New Mexico, +6 in Colorado, +8 in Iowa, +6 in Virginia, and +3 in Nevada.

And that's assuming McCain actually pulls off a come-behind in Pennsylvania.

Obama could also still win w/o Pa if he knocks off Missouri (most recent Fox-Rasmussen Poll O 49, M 44) or Indiana (Big Ten and Survey USA both have Obama up). And I'm not sure why you're so absolutely confident that McCain has nothing to worry about in NC, OH or FL, even though all three are trending ok-ish over the last 24 hours.

Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings.

81 posted on 10/24/2008 8:42:10 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Thane_Banquo

If McCain/Palin win PA, and I think they will, then they will win the election.

Do you all remember the men’s 400 meter freestyle relay during the Olympics. The amazing come from behind leg that Jason Lezak turned in against the fastest swimmer on the planet? The upset victory that nobody expected? Do you remember the reaction of Michael Phelps - his primal yell of unadulterated joy? That is going to be me on election night when they call PA for McCain/Palin.


82 posted on 10/24/2008 8:42:15 PM PDT by JJHLH1
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To: Thane_Banquo

Operation Chaos continues...

Well done good sir!.


83 posted on 10/24/2008 8:42:52 PM PDT by Crim (Dont frak with the Zeitgeist....http://falconparty.com/)
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To: HerrBlucher
Obama is so over.

Yeah.
I read somewhere that he's like all the cool "dot.coms" were before the big crash. So '90's.

84 posted on 10/24/2008 8:43:12 PM PDT by XR7
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To: Alter Kaker
Perhaps. But what if all the polls are wrong? They were wrong about Kerry.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

85 posted on 10/24/2008 8:43:50 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Besides, 06 was less a vote for liberals than a rant by conservatives who stayed home or voted libertarian, or voted for so called conservative dims.


86 posted on 10/24/2008 8:44:30 PM PDT by prov1813man (While the one you despise and ridicule works to protect you, those you embrace work to destroy you)
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To: goldstategop
Perhaps. But what if all the polls are wrong? They were wrong about Kerry.

1. The polls weren't wrong about Kerry.

2. What if monkeys fly out of my butt?

87 posted on 10/24/2008 8:47:14 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: goldstategop
Only if the cities go for him. It's the cities that carry the state.

If obama doesn't carry the cities, or most of them, he won't get NY.

I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out considering Hillary is NYs senator. I don't know whether her supporter's loyalties are with her or the Democratic party.

I couldn't get NYS red/blue map alone; it only came as part of the country map.


88 posted on 10/24/2008 8:47:15 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: Thane_Banquo
Sorry Poof, I’m not a mathematician, rocket scientist, or graduate from a prestigious university (such as they are). I am however from Rouseville, PA. You know that “racist” and “redneck” NW part of the state that is so obviously unenlightened by Rep Murtha standards.

Tell you what; if my lazy, racist, deer hunting, red necked, no account friends could find it in their hearts to tear away from those bar stools at Sutchs Midway Lounge for an hour or two, I’ll bet your numbers come November 4th just might take on a whole new different meaning. Cheers, you putz…

89 posted on 10/24/2008 8:48:40 PM PDT by ArchAngel1983 (Arch Angel- on guard)
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To: Alter Kaker
LOL. I didn't know we had President Kerry. Yeah, pollsters have a lot of flying monkeys are riding what they think is a sure bet this year.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

90 posted on 10/24/2008 8:50:05 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: metmom
Marist College released a poll today of 527 Likely Voters in New York:

McCain 29%
Obama 65%
Und- 4%

Result:+36D

Something tells me McCain should stick to the battlegrounds... he's not winning New York.

91 posted on 10/24/2008 8:50:44 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Frantzie
My guess is with Bishop Martino speaking up about abortion that Obama will get very few of their votes.

Cardinal Rigali is the boss in Philly. He has recently made something very clear to Catholics.

Cardinal Rigali: Abortion is the “Transcending Issue of Our Day.”

92 posted on 10/24/2008 8:52:14 PM PDT by Stentor (Obama is Bill Ayers' Renfield.)
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To: rom
I think McCain will win PA.

And I think McCain knows it. If he does (and keeps Florida, Virginia and Ohio), he’s in GREAT shape to put this election to bed early on election night.


Of the 4 States mentioned (PA, FL, VA, and OH), the one I worry about most is Ohio. I think the Dems will steal it with the help of ACORN.

What say ye?
93 posted on 10/24/2008 8:52:23 PM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: VigilantAmerican
Erie has historically been known as somewhat of a belwether American city, representing a cross-section of typical US cities or something along those lines.

In the city itself, I'd say based on stickers/signs, it's about 2:1 Obama. I get the impression that it's usually more strongly Dem than that... in the primary it was mostly Hillary signs.

It seems like this is as well as McCain could expect, but I'm an outsider, so I'm not sure how the city normally goes.

94 posted on 10/24/2008 8:52:55 PM PDT by GCC Catholic (Sour grapes make terrible whine.)
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To: HerrBlucher
Obama is so over. On Nov 5 he will be yesterday’s news, a has been, actually, a never was. He will be humilated and so will all his creepy crummy commie cronies.

Oh my; how I pray that you are right in your assumption. Please God; let it be so.
95 posted on 10/24/2008 8:54:41 PM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: no dems

It is worrisome. It just means that real voters will have to work that much harder.

That said, I’d like to believe that the GOP is watching Ohio closely.


96 posted on 10/24/2008 8:54:59 PM PDT by rom (Keep Senator Government from Spreading YOUR Wealth! McCain/Palin '08!)
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To: goldstategop
LOL. I didn't know we had President Kerry. Yeah, pollsters have a lot of flying monkeys are riding what they think is a sure bet this year.

We don't have President Kerry. The polls said Kerry would lose... and he did. Of the 20 national polls conducted closest to the 2004 election, 17 had Bush ahead, 2 had Kerry ahead, and 1 had a tie.

That's pretty good, considering the outcome was Bush 50.7%, Kerry 48.3%.

97 posted on 10/24/2008 8:55:02 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Thane_Banquo

I agree. I think McCain will win PA. Wouldn’t it be great if he pulled out a win in Michigan also.

What are the chances? Anybody?


98 posted on 10/24/2008 8:55:53 PM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: GCC Catholic
McCain is not going to carry any big city. He'll be content with medium sized cities, small towns and rural America. Life's not fair.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

99 posted on 10/24/2008 8:57:07 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Alter Kaker
Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings.

I think it's over not so much from an electoral college standpoint but because Pennsylvania will be such a bellwether for the rest of the country.

100 posted on 10/24/2008 8:58:04 PM PDT by Radio Free Tuscaloosa (God Bless...America!! - Adm. Jeremiah Denton)
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