If McCain wins PA, it’s over. He should win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. With PA he could LOSE Bush states Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia and still win the election.
Send Sarah and Joe the Plumber to PA!
If McCain-Palin win Pennsylvania, this election is over. The only thing left will be to make sure McCain-Palin win the Popular Vote.
You're forgetting New Mexico. If Obama loses PA but keeps all the other Kerry states + NM, IA, CO and VA he gets exactly 270 votes. That's enough to win.
That's not a crazy scenario, as Obama is +7 in New Mexico, +6 in Colorado, +8 in Iowa, +6 in Virginia, and +3 in Nevada.
And that's assuming McCain actually pulls off a come-behind in Pennsylvania.
Obama could also still win w/o Pa if he knocks off Missouri (most recent Fox-Rasmussen Poll O 49, M 44) or Indiana (Big Ten and Survey USA both have Obama up). And I'm not sure why you're so absolutely confident that McCain has nothing to worry about in NC, OH or FL, even though all three are trending ok-ish over the last 24 hours.
Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings.
Pa is one of the first east coast EST state... so ? a lot of voters will be keeping a eye out on Pa, Florida, and Ohio.