Cool. Neat analysis. I was trying to come up with a methodlogy for states Hillary won like FL, PA, OH and MI.
She got 50% in FL, Obama got 32% and Edwards got 14%. Repubs had 200,000 more votes. I think Obama will get less than 80% of Edwards & Hill voters in FL. Obama should be toast in FL.
Anyone know how big the Italian-American Rizzo Dems are around Philly these days? They were a powerhouse.
I would guess lower numbers than in the past but still a fairly large number. My guess is with Bishop Martino speaking up about abortion that Obama will get very few of their votes. The fact that Obama could be a Muslim or non-American will also help.
I also think Rendell and the Clintons will do nothing. I hope if Obama hands out “walking around money” that Rendell and his pals just pocket it. The Clintons & Rendell want to show Obama that Philly can play tougher hardball than Chicago.
On the other side of the state the clingers/rednecks/racists will also smash Obama. Murtha fired them up. McCain should win PA.
Been wondering about the leak of the PA poll on the 14th, followed by the leak of Rendell’s emails and “nervous” statement. He asked 0bama to campaign with the Clintons, with three stops in Western PA.
Now 0bama can’t do that exactly, because it will be admitting that Rendell was right and they were in trouble. And if the Clinton’s come up with some cheap excuse, like the Zoroastrian New Year, to not campaign in PA, then it will be an effective Clinton endorsement of the PUMA pack. Could Rendell be putting the fix in?
Or could he just really be nervous? Probably the latter, but the former is more fun to think about.
Pumas have been spotted roaming the wilds of Pennsylvania.
Cardinal Rigali is the boss in Philly. He has recently made something very clear to Catholics.
The frosting on the cake would be if Obama takes Murtha down into the abyss with him.