Skip to comments.New theory predicts the largest ozone hole over Antarctica will occur this month (CFCs not to blame)
Posted on 10/25/2008 1:09:55 PM PDT by Entrepreneur
WATERLOO, Ont. (Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008) -- A University of Waterloo scientist says that cosmic rays are a key cause for expanding the hole in the ozone layer over the South Pole -- and predicts the largest ozone hole will occur in one or two weeks.
Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy who studies ozone depletion, said that it was generally accepted for more than two decades that the Earth's ozone layer is depleted by chlorine atoms produced by sunlight-induced destruction of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere. But more and more evidence now points to a new theory that the cosmic rays (energy particles that originate in space) play a major role.
The ozone layer is a layer in Earth's atmosphere that contains high concentrations of ozone. It absorbs almost all of the sun's high-frequency ultraviolet light, which is potentially damaging to life on Earth and causes diseases such as skin cancer and cataracts. The Antarctic ozone hole can be larger than the size of North America.
Lu said that data from several sources, including NASA satellites, show a strong correlation between cosmic ray intensity and ozone depletion. Lab measurements demonstrate a mechanism by which cosmic rays cause drastic reactions of ozone-depleting chlorine inside polar clouds.
Satellite data in the period of 1980-2007, covering two full 11-year solar cycles, demonstrate the significant correlation between cosmic rays and ozone depletion.
"This finding, combined with laboratory measurements, provides strong evidence of the role of cosmic-ray driven reactions in causing the ozone hole and resolves the mystery why a large discrepancy between the sunlight-related photochemical model and the observed ozone depletion exists," Lu said.
For example, the most recent scientific assessments of ozone depletion by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, which use photochemical models, predict ozone will increase by one to 2.5 per cent between 2000 and 2020 and Antarctic springtime ozone is projected to increase by five to 10 per cent between 2000 and 2020.
In sharp contrast, Lu said his study predicts the severest ozone loss -- resulting in the largest ozone hole -- will occur over the South Pole this month. The study also predicts another large hole will probably occur around 2019.
Also, is there any empirical research underlying the CFC phase-out or was it all based on a theory and computer modeling? We're about to be saddled with an economically destructive carbon tax based not on empirical evidence, but highly flawed computer simulations. Before we turn over our economy to the environmentalists shouldn't we look at their track record?
If you look at the chart below, you will see that sunspot activity (during solar maxes--the individual peaks) has been relatively high since about 1900 and almost non-existent for the period between about 1625 and 1725. This period is known as the Maunder (sunspot) Minimum or "Little Ice Age".
From BBC News [yr: 2004]:
"A new  analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years. Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past. They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer."..."In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun's surface. This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it. It coincided with a spell of prolonged cold weather often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Solar scientists strongly suspect there is a link between the two events - but the exact mechanism remains elusive."
It's really hard to imagine how this little ball of fire could have any impact on our climate at all.
But the main arguments being made for a solar-climate connection is not so much to do with the heat of the Sun but rather with its magnetic cycles. When the Sun is more magnetically active (typically around the peak of the 11 year sunspot cycle --we are a few yrs away at the moment), the Sun's magnetic field is better able to deflect away incoming galactic cosmic rays (highly energetic charged particles coming from outside the solar system). The GCRs are thought to help in the formation of low-level cumulus clouds -the type of clouds that BLOCK sunlight and help cool the Earth. So when the Sun's MF is acting up (not like now -the next sunspot max is expected in about 2012), less GCRs reach the Earth's atmosphere, less low level sunlight-blocking clouds form, and more sunlight gets through to warm the Earth's surface...naturally. Clouds are basically made up of tiny water droplets. When minute particles in the atmosphere become ionized by incoming GCRs they become very 'attractive' to water molecules, in a purely chemical sense of the word. The process by which the Sun's increased magnetic field would deflect incoming cosmic rays is very similar to the way magnetic fields steer electrons in a cathode ray tube or electrons and other charged particles around the ring of a subatomic particle accelerator.-ETL
There's a relatively new book out on the subject titled The Chilling Stars. It's written by one of the top scientists advancing the theory (Henrik Svensmark).
And here is the website for the place where he does his research:
2008: "The Center for Sun-Climate Research at the DNSC investigates the connection between variations in the intensity of cosmic rays and climatic changes on Earth. This field of research has been given the name 'cosmoclimatology'"..."Cosmic ray intensities and therefore cloudiness keep changing because the Sun's magnetic field varies in its ability to repel cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy, before they can reach the Earth." :
100,000-Year Climate Pattern Linked To Sun's Magnetic Cycles:
ScienceDaily (Jun. 7, 2002) HANOVER, N.H.
Thanks to new calculations by a Dartmouth geochemist, scientists are now looking at the earth's climate history in a new light. Mukul Sharma, Assistant Professor of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth, examined existing sets of geophysical data and noticed something remarkable: the sun's magnetic activity is varying in 100,000-year cycles, a much longer time span than previously thought, and this solar activity, in turn, may likely cause the 100,000-year climate cycles on earth. This research helps scientists understand past climate trends and prepare for future ones.
From a well-referenced wikipedia.com column (see wiki link for ref 14):
"Sunspot numbers over the past 11,400 years have been reconstructed using dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. The level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional the last period of similar magnitude occurred over 8,000 years ago. The Sun was at a similarly high level of magnetic activity for only ~10% of the past 11,400 years, and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode."
 ^Solanki, Sami K.; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kromer, Bernd; Schüssler, Manfred & Beer, Jürg (2004), Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years, Nature 431: 10841087, doi:10.1038/nature02995, . Retrieved on 17 April 2007 , "11,000 Year Sunspot Number Reconstruction". Global Change Master Directory. Retrieved on 2005-03-11.
"Reconstruction of solar activity over 11,400 years. Period of equally high activity over 8,000 years ago marked.
Present period is on [the right]. Values since 1900 not shown."
Ozone, global warming, peak oil.....it's all deceit to gain control.
The elites want the rest of us gone.
This is, of course, due to the Bush/Rove/Cheney Orbiting Cosmic Ray Generator/s;)
Not soon enough to save our asthma meds in the good old wheezing US of A. Doesn’t matter to the drug companies since they get a whole new cycle of patent protection for the replacement product.
Naturally the MSM will not report on this, the politicians who commanded the creation less efficient air conditioners, etc. will ignore the findings and the American people will shake their heads, having been robbed of billions and check out who’s playing in the 4 o’clock NFL game. The winners—the anti-capitalists and other scam artists—are laughing like hell.
Oh my God! What shall I do?
Eat more ice cream!
Since my days as a chemistry major 25 years ago CFC induced ozone depletion has always been questionable.
Banning of CFC’s had much more to do with the various Freon products going off patent in the mid ‘90s.
Could the active volcano Mt. Erebus
have anything to do with the ozone hole ?
Nah; must be man made !
Wow, Scientists actually observe, document and try to figure things out?
Science for the win!
“But more and more evidence now points to a new theory that the cosmic rays (energy particles that originate in space) play a major role.”
You just gotta shake your head. The same nitwits who told us the Ozone hole was the biggest man made catastrophe to ever hit the earth are the same people who are now telling us global warming is man made.
There are some aspects to the ozone hole that need clarification.
To start with, in the thickest part of the ozone layer, there is only between 2 and 8 parts per million (ppm) of ozone. If all the ozone in the ozone layer were compressed at sea level, it would only be 2 or 3mm thick.
It is also important to remember that you have to imagine the ozone layer in three dimensions, a blanket of atmosphere from 20km to 40km in altitude.
Now imagine the ozone hole. It still has some ozone in it, just less than between 2-8 ppm. And the hole itself, which has a very large area, isn’t the problem, it is the *growth* of this hole, a much smaller total area, which is the problem. That is, not the entire hole, just a ring around the edge of the hole.
Granted, a ring that goes from 20-40km up. But that being said, why has no one made the obvious proposition: “Why don’t we put some more ozone up there?”
All you would seem to need is a sea ship capable of generating a large quantity of frozen ozone (-315F). Put in a strong container, the ship then launches a high altitude tethered balloon carrying the frozen ozone. When at altitude, nozzles on the bottom of the container open, and the ozone boils out into the relatively far warmer atmosphere. In doing so, the balloon is pushed to a much higher altitude.
The ozone then diffuses through the edge of the ozone hole, shrinking it in size.
It might take ten or twenty such ozone dumping flights to achieve a noticeable effect, but it would happen, and as such help mitigate the problem.
CFCs, DDT, Cyclamates, Alar. It’s the story; it’s the power; it’s the fear you can strike in others; it’s almost never the facts and you never wait to confirm a leftist theory.
The day is coming when environmental gods will no longer be satisfied with mere chemical offerings. They will demand humans.
—along with Mt. Erebus, I have never seen a rational explanation of how all the CFC’s, which were released almost exclusively in the northern hemisphere, made it down there to the south pole area through all of the equatorial air currents-—
New!!: Dr. John Ray's
Ping me if you find one I've missed.
I'm not sure how they get from sea level in America
I believe also that CFCs are very much heavier than air.
and get into the stratosphere at the south pole.
I'm not sure how they get from sea level in America
The banning of CFCs cost us dearly as a civilization in increased energy use, materials costs for bigger heat exchangers due to less efficient refrigerants, etc. It’s hard to beat R-11, R-12, and R-22.
There are many who think that the banning of CFCs was due to exactly that, and that it was engineered by DuPont (or was it Allied Signal - who ever held the patents on the old and new refrigerants).
Tinfoil hat-ish, but then seeing stuff like this makes you wonder.
>>The day is coming when environmental gods will no longer be satisfied with mere chemical offerings. They will demand humans.
They already have, by the millions. Go read up on how many have died due to insect-borne disease due to unavailability of properly-used DDT.
No, it’s entirely appropriate, as the banning of CFCs provided the model for what we’re seeing now with CO2.
Thanks for posting.
Absolutely. Here's a very old post of mine:
Well, damn- it seems to be lost! Circa 2000, I think-- I covered The War on Freon, DDT, Asbestos, and a few other things.
I came across that problem the other day. The date seems to be some time in mid-2001. 9/11 stuff is there, but posts from April of that year are MIA.
I sent a Freepmail to all the moderators, and no one answered. I guess I’ll hit up JimRob and JohnRob with the question.
There’s some good archival material gone from then.
A question for you gentlemen.
Backhoe and I have both recently noticed that material from all posts before some date in 2001 seem to be MIA. When you hit the links you get:
No such file (give_legacy_article)
Backhoe has a link to one such thread in the replied-to post. I have several more handy, if you need them.
What is the status of those threads? Are they gone forever? Might they return some day?
Backhoe, did you save any links you can repost?
Very interesting. Thanks for the ping.
They’re still online, but they’re in the old flat file format and can’t be readily loaded into our database. There also seems to be some problem getting them uncompressed and out of the server cache. If you get the “legacy file” message, you can try reload or refresh and usually within three or four tries the thread will come up. You can’t post to them though.
Thank you, sir! For this, and all you do.
Backhoe - see the answer just above. It worked for me on the 4th refresh. I’ve got that thread open for viewing.
Thanks- that seems to work with other old files with the same error message- just keep hitting F5 until it comes back.
George Bush has allowed that volcano to go on far too long.