Skip to comments.New theory predicts the largest ozone hole over Antarctica will occur this month (CFCs not to blame)
Posted on 10/25/2008 1:09:55 PM PDT by Entrepreneur
WATERLOO, Ont. (Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008) -- A University of Waterloo scientist says that cosmic rays are a key cause for expanding the hole in the ozone layer over the South Pole -- and predicts the largest ozone hole will occur in one or two weeks.
Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy who studies ozone depletion, said that it was generally accepted for more than two decades that the Earth's ozone layer is depleted by chlorine atoms produced by sunlight-induced destruction of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere. But more and more evidence now points to a new theory that the cosmic rays (energy particles that originate in space) play a major role.
The ozone layer is a layer in Earth's atmosphere that contains high concentrations of ozone. It absorbs almost all of the sun's high-frequency ultraviolet light, which is potentially damaging to life on Earth and causes diseases such as skin cancer and cataracts. The Antarctic ozone hole can be larger than the size of North America.
Lu said that data from several sources, including NASA satellites, show a strong correlation between cosmic ray intensity and ozone depletion. Lab measurements demonstrate a mechanism by which cosmic rays cause drastic reactions of ozone-depleting chlorine inside polar clouds.
Satellite data in the period of 1980-2007, covering two full 11-year solar cycles, demonstrate the significant correlation between cosmic rays and ozone depletion.
"This finding, combined with laboratory measurements, provides strong evidence of the role of cosmic-ray driven reactions in causing the ozone hole and resolves the mystery why a large discrepancy between the sunlight-related photochemical model and the observed ozone depletion exists," Lu said.
For example, the most recent scientific assessments of ozone depletion by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, which use photochemical models, predict ozone will increase by one to 2.5 per cent between 2000 and 2020 and Antarctic springtime ozone is projected to increase by five to 10 per cent between 2000 and 2020.
In sharp contrast, Lu said his study predicts the severest ozone loss -- resulting in the largest ozone hole -- will occur over the South Pole this month. The study also predicts another large hole will probably occur around 2019.
I'm not sure how they get from sea level in America
I believe also that CFCs are very much heavier than air.
and get into the stratosphere at the south pole.
I'm not sure how they get from sea level in America
The banning of CFCs cost us dearly as a civilization in increased energy use, materials costs for bigger heat exchangers due to less efficient refrigerants, etc. It’s hard to beat R-11, R-12, and R-22.
There are many who think that the banning of CFCs was due to exactly that, and that it was engineered by DuPont (or was it Allied Signal - who ever held the patents on the old and new refrigerants).
Tinfoil hat-ish, but then seeing stuff like this makes you wonder.
>>The day is coming when environmental gods will no longer be satisfied with mere chemical offerings. They will demand humans.
They already have, by the millions. Go read up on how many have died due to insect-borne disease due to unavailability of properly-used DDT.
No, it’s entirely appropriate, as the banning of CFCs provided the model for what we’re seeing now with CO2.
Thanks for posting.
Absolutely. Here's a very old post of mine:
Well, damn- it seems to be lost! Circa 2000, I think-- I covered The War on Freon, DDT, Asbestos, and a few other things.
I came across that problem the other day. The date seems to be some time in mid-2001. 9/11 stuff is there, but posts from April of that year are MIA.
I sent a Freepmail to all the moderators, and no one answered. I guess I’ll hit up JimRob and JohnRob with the question.
There’s some good archival material gone from then.
A question for you gentlemen.
Backhoe and I have both recently noticed that material from all posts before some date in 2001 seem to be MIA. When you hit the links you get:
No such file (give_legacy_article)
Backhoe has a link to one such thread in the replied-to post. I have several more handy, if you need them.
What is the status of those threads? Are they gone forever? Might they return some day?
Backhoe, did you save any links you can repost?
Very interesting. Thanks for the ping.
They’re still online, but they’re in the old flat file format and can’t be readily loaded into our database. There also seems to be some problem getting them uncompressed and out of the server cache. If you get the “legacy file” message, you can try reload or refresh and usually within three or four tries the thread will come up. You can’t post to them though.
Thank you, sir! For this, and all you do.
Backhoe - see the answer just above. It worked for me on the 4th refresh. I’ve got that thread open for viewing.
Thanks- that seems to work with other old files with the same error message- just keep hitting F5 until it comes back.
George Bush has allowed that volcano to go on far too long.