Corroboration of the Hillbuzz poll info from NYPost

NY Post ^ | October 25, 2008 | Nate Silver

[WKL815]

McCain's (Long) Road to Electoral Win

1. Abandon Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa.

2) Attack New Hampshire and New Mexico.

3) Defend Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina.

[WKL815]

Also posted at Hotair

[WKL815]

Also, McCain/Palin is going to win.

[SMCC1]

I don’t see the point in abandoning PA now with 9 days to go after putting so much into it.

[conservativefromGa]

Out of PA, WI, MN, and MI, I expect McCain to pick up at least one.

[snarkytart]

McCain doesn’t even NEED NM, NH, and Iowa. If he can keep Nevada, Virginia, and Colorado, he wins.

[CatOwner]

Going after NH only helps if either (a) they pick up 1 EV from the congressional district in ME or (b) they take PA. Otherwise, NH is wasted effort.

Holding onto NM allows a loss in CO. Makes more sense if they feel they are close enough in NM.

[babydubya1981]

They forgot Florida.

[The_Reader_David]

I agree. Except for abandoning PA, the advice seemed spot on to me.

We had another thread in from Hillbuzz in which a statistician for a major polling co. engaged by campaigns estimated O’s chances of carrying PA at only 55%. That seems worth the effort.

[WKL815]

I am pulling for a PA win.

[WKL815]

That was the blogpost I referred to in the title. I was jazzed about it and then more so when I saw the NYPost article talking about the exact same thing the pollster said re: NH and NM.

[SumProVita]

Me too! (Prayer works.) ;-)

[bitt]

unnh.

beginning to get the heebie-jeebies......I am falling back upon the comfort that the pollsters are biased morons....

[bigbob]

Perhaps they are counting on Jack “Redneck” Murtha to carry PA for McCain-Palin.

[SaintDismas]

OK. Just got through playing with the RCP map. If we win all the Bush states but don’t win IA, NM, or NH, even if we win CO, we can’t win. Somebody help me out here.

[techno]

I agree with 3) but don’t agree that McCain should abandon PA (2 weeks ago via Strategic Vision he was 14 points down; now he is 7 points down with 9 days of campaigning left); he definitely should go after NH with a vengeance but abandon NM-it looks like a lost cause.

[CatOwner]

If McCain takes all Bush takes except IA and NM, he would end up with 274 EVs.

What total do you have? BTW, Bush did not take NH in 2004.

[snarkytart]

Correct!

[SaintDismas]

OK, I’m retarded. They had ND in a toss up category. Shit the bed, that’s what’s retarded.

[mombrown1]

It will be racist redneck PA.

[SaintDismas]

For crying out loud, they had MT in the toss up category too! Just damn.