Skip to comments.PUMA pollster: "McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV..."
Posted on 10/26/2008 12:24:07 AM PDT by RonDog
Check out THIS great news, from the PUMAs over at HillBUZZ:
I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company.
They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri.
After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV.
She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia.
She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginiaand pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table).
She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a concerted voter suppression effort by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was worth a bucket of warm piss.
October 25, 2008
Posted by hillbuzz under Uncategorized
Thanks RonDog. Let’s hope she’s on to something.
FL, OH, NC, MO and NV should all be in the bag...I can’t believe they’d be in play, and it blows my mind they’d be in play for Senator Government.
The debate should really be about PA and NH. And we should definitely take PA, limitless fraud in Philly aside.
Come on, you ignorant, racist PA rednecks, GOTV!! :)
I would pay a lot for a bucket of warm piss if i could pour it on Chris Mathews.
Well, I hope like hell you are right.
Poll numbers posted in a chat thread by someone who heard it from a friend who works for a company that does polling ... finally, something I can hang my hat on. :)
Thanks for the info.
Probably more credible and reliable than the Newsweek poll.
I’d say this is the most accurate view I’ve seen on the polls. Congrats to this dem for being so foreright and honest. Barring something new, I think it will be fairly close.
I still can’t picture Obama as president, but I can’t tell you it isn’t possible.
I don’t doubt some of these numbers. My only difference is I believe 0bama’s “bitter clinger” and Murtha’s “redneck” and “Western PA racists” statements give McCain PA. I am not so confident about CO, but taking PA should do it. My biggest problem with the PUMA crowd is the fact they may push McCain over the line, but they immediately begin to undermine him on Nov 5th to push Hillary back out there for 2012.
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