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PUMA pollster: "McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV..."
hillbuzz.wordpress.com ^ | 10/25/08 | VIA VirginiaVirtuacon (via hillbuzz)

Posted on 10/26/2008 12:24:07 AM PDT by RonDog

Check out THIS great news, from the PUMAs over at HillBUZZ:

I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company.

They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri.

After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV.

She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia.

She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.

 
Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table).

She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.



TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California; US: Colorado; US: Florida; US: Maine; US: Missouri; US: Nevada; US: New Hampshire; US: New Mexico; US: North Carolina; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; hillbuzz; obama; obamatruthfile; polls; puma; virginiavirtucon
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The ORIGINAL title was a little less informative:

October 25, 2008

Hey Eeyores: another take on those polls

Posted by hillbuzz under Uncategorized


1 posted on 10/26/2008 12:24:07 AM PDT by RonDog
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To: RonDog

Thanks RonDog. Let’s hope she’s on to something.


2 posted on 10/26/2008 12:27:37 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Is Obamanation what our founding fathers, our fallen men in combat, and Ronald Reagan had in mind?)
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To: RonDog

FL, OH, NC, MO and NV should all be in the bag...I can’t believe they’d be in play, and it blows my mind they’d be in play for Senator Government.

The debate should really be about PA and NH. And we should definitely take PA, limitless fraud in Philly aside.


3 posted on 10/26/2008 12:27:57 AM PDT by BobbyT
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To: BobbyT

Come on, you ignorant, racist PA rednecks, GOTV!! :)


4 posted on 10/26/2008 12:37:30 AM PDT by GnuHere
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To: RonDog

I would pay a lot for a bucket of warm piss if i could pour it on Chris Mathews.


5 posted on 10/26/2008 12:39:55 AM PDT by Safrguns
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To: RonDog

Well, I hope like hell you are right.


6 posted on 10/26/2008 12:43:36 AM PDT by SideoutFred (B.O. Stinks...it really does)
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Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: RonDog

Poll numbers posted in a chat thread by someone who heard it from a friend who works for a company that does polling ... finally, something I can hang my hat on. :)


8 posted on 10/26/2008 12:46:53 AM PDT by spodefly (Recycling the same posts in multiple threads for seven years!)
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To: GnuHere
You say Redneck as if it were a bad thing.



Biloxi Beach, today. Yeah, I'm a photographer and she's a local 'Redneck' girl.
9 posted on 10/26/2008 12:47:38 AM PDT by Islander7 (This Atlas is shrugging! ~ I am Joe!)
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To: RonDog

Thanks for the info.


10 posted on 10/26/2008 12:47:44 AM PDT by 1035rep
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Comment #11 Removed by Moderator

To: spodefly

Probably more credible and reliable than the Newsweek poll.


12 posted on 10/26/2008 12:48:52 AM PDT by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: Chet 99

I concur!


13 posted on 10/26/2008 12:49:21 AM PDT by 1035rep
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To: RonDog; All

I’d say this is the most accurate view I’ve seen on the polls. Congrats to this dem for being so foreright and honest. Barring something new, I think it will be fairly close.

I still can’t picture Obama as president, but I can’t tell you it isn’t possible.


14 posted on 10/26/2008 12:49:49 AM PDT by Rick_Michael (Have no fear "Senator Government" is here)
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To: Carolina Engineer
If you can't believe the polls than why do you ? I have to laugh , so many here deride the MSM . yet any negative story or slanted poll that pops up they buy it . It must be like some king of battered spouse thing.
15 posted on 10/26/2008 12:50:29 AM PDT by fantom
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Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: RonDog

I don’t doubt some of these numbers. My only difference is I believe 0bama’s “bitter clinger” and Murtha’s “redneck” and “Western PA racists” statements give McCain PA. I am not so confident about CO, but taking PA should do it. My biggest problem with the PUMA crowd is the fact they may push McCain over the line, but they immediately begin to undermine him on Nov 5th to push Hillary back out there for 2012.


17 posted on 10/26/2008 12:52:41 AM PDT by edpc
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: RonDog

BUMP!


20 posted on 10/26/2008 12:56:08 AM PDT by AmericanArchConservative (Armour on, Lances high, Swords out, Bows drawn, Shields front ... Eagles UP!)
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To: Safrguns

LOL, same here, but I’d want to pour it on Barbara Walters, Joy Behar, Sherri, and Whoopi (THE VIEW).


21 posted on 10/26/2008 1:00:41 AM PDT by The Ghost of Rudy McRomney (I lust after Sarah the Naughty Librarian)
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Comment #22 Removed by Moderator

To: RonDog

Told you all for months there’s no way The O will win OheilO. The Clintons would have not only taken this state, they’d have won the election in a landslide. Many still rever them as Gods. The dems made a big mistake, but I’m glad to be rid of them.


23 posted on 10/26/2008 1:05:18 AM PDT by The Ghost of Rudy McRomney (I lust after Sarah the Naughty Librarian)
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To: DoughtyOne
Today C-Span had an academic talking about polling. The gist of his lecture was that pollsters need the business.

They statistically skew their results for the client.

They underplay, or don't report the undecided. It is expecially huge during primaries, but we don't hear about it. Undecideds don't tell anyone how they are going to vote.

He also said 4 out of 5 phone call connections are of no value to a pollster.

Polls that are for public notice are different from polls for internal use.

This is why Rove said McCain/Palin will blitz the media in the last 72 hours with their best stuff and they have plenty.

yitbos

24 posted on 10/26/2008 1:15:52 AM PDT by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds.")
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To: RonDog

He just lost Pennsylvania with his latest gaffe. He just admitted to being a socialist on a radio soundbite.


25 posted on 10/26/2008 1:16:09 AM PDT by TypeZoNegative (Pro life & Vegan because I respect all life, Republican because our enemies don't respect ours.)
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To: Islander7

Uh, do you have a webpage of the rest of your work?


26 posted on 10/26/2008 1:21:08 AM PDT by gman4bush
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To: Safrguns

He would like it.


27 posted on 10/26/2008 1:21:37 AM PDT by screaminsunshine
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To: RonDog; DoughtyOne

Oh...good Lord!

The PUMAs are on fire!

You need to read their sites. They are livid with the DNC, they absolutely hate Obama, and...

...they are watching Fox News, quoting Reagan, and posting articles from FR, and other conservative sites.

They are NOT the radicals who are in charge of Obama’s campaign. They are more centrist.

They are very decent people, and I hope we will happy to have them here.


28 posted on 10/26/2008 1:22:47 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (Sarah'cuda Rocks!)
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To: Islander7

Oh, gosh...to be a local redneck...who looks like that...;o)


29 posted on 10/26/2008 1:24:02 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (Sarah'cuda Rocks!)
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To: dixiechick2000

Are you sure some of those ‘PUMAs’ aren’t US? Like stealth freepers who joined the PUMA sites?


30 posted on 10/26/2008 1:47:52 AM PDT by informavoracious (Oust all incumbents.)
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To: edpc
I don’t doubt some of these numbers. My only difference is I believe 0bama’s “bitter clinger” and Murtha’s “redneck” and “Western PA racists” statements give McCain PA. I am not so confident about CO, but taking PA should do it.

I wish I had as much faith about PA as some of you do. I'm actually more confident about CO. CO has been pretty reliable. They've only gone for the rats ONCE since 64 and that was only because Ross Perot was in there (92). You take Perot out and CO goes for Bush. On top of that, the polls there haven't been all that erratic. Most of them have it at about 5 points, which is certainly within reach. Especially considering there isn't much of an AA population there.

I think we'll do much better in Western PA than usual, but I think Eastern PA could be a problem. You can bet that they're going to pull every trick in the book and build up big numbers in the Philly metro area. I don't see us getting much help with ACORN's fraudulent registrations in PA. It's still possible that we could pull off the upset there, but my money is on CO, VA, FL, and OH.

IN and NC aren't really in play, so let bambi waste his money there. It'll never happen.

I also think we have a shot at putting NH back where it belongs.
31 posted on 10/26/2008 1:49:22 AM PDT by jackinbox
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To: RonDog
She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania

WRONG! McCain/Palin win PA and hence the whole ballgame. BANK ON IT!

32 posted on 10/26/2008 1:50:14 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: bruinbirdman

I hope they do have plenty, but I’d give it more like five to seven day for that stuff. You don’t even get everyone to hear your stuff in 72 hours.

I think we’re doing okay. McCain/Palin will win.


33 posted on 10/26/2008 1:51:25 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Is Obamanation what our founding fathers, our fallen men in combat, and Ronald Reagan had in mind?)
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To: The Ghost of Rudy McRomney

“Told you all for months there’s no way The O will win OheilO. The Clintons would have not only taken this state, they’d have won the election in a landslide. Many still rever them as Gods. The dems made a big mistake, but I’m glad to be rid of them.”

Plus, I don’t think 59k Democrats moved into the state in the last 4 years. Also. Hillary won the state. Regardless of how many of those people vote Democrat, the most Obama would get is all the Ohio Democrat voters and that still isn’t enough to beat McCain.


34 posted on 10/26/2008 1:52:36 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (McCain/Palin 2008)
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To: dixiechick2000

If they can pull over a third of Hillary’s support team, that’s pretty good. Wait until those PUMAs figure out that Hillary loathes Reagan and everyone they are now going to support for this election.

Do they go back? Do they stay here? Do they cause trouble if they do stay on the right.

Palin cracked the nut nobody else could. She seems to have them thinking. Amazing.


35 posted on 10/26/2008 1:53:47 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Is Obamanation what our founding fathers, our fallen men in combat, and Ronald Reagan had in mind?)
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Comment #36 Removed by Moderator

To: bruinbirdman

RE: “This is why Rove said McCain/Palin will blitz the media in the last 72 hours with their best stuff and they have plenty”

************

The last 72 hours would be fine if not for all the EARLY VOTING going on. How about McCain-Palin shows some of their best stuff right now!!! Just about a week to go until official election day. No time to waste


37 posted on 10/26/2008 2:03:30 AM PDT by CaliforniaCon
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To: Carolina Engineer

I think it would be instructive to talk about Obama’s life. His early years. His unknown birth status, his high school years, drugs, living with a drug dealer, sitting on panels as late as 2002 with Bill Ayers making presentations together on the same dais. I’d talk about the African dictator, the meeting where Jews were the butts of a lot of racist one-liners.

There is so much fertile ground there. You could spend five to ten minutes had have his fans so turned off they could possibly pull the lever.

The Socialist thing is doing well. Reinventing that and going with it could be very powerful, even yet.

Obama is a hollow shell of a man. He has been blown up by the DNC and the MSM. One leak and this guy is going to go shooting out across the planet zipping this way and that as he deflates.

We could very well be looking at a real trouncing on November 4th. I’m not convinced we won’t see Obama go down in stinging defeat.

We’ll see.


38 posted on 10/26/2008 2:04:23 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Is Obamanation what our founding fathers, our fallen men in combat, and Ronald Reagan had in mind?)
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To: informavoracious

RE: “Are you sure some of those ‘PUMAs’ aren’t US? Like stealth freepers who joined the PUMA sites?”

***********

I’ve considered the same thing, unfortunately. :(


39 posted on 10/26/2008 2:05:53 AM PDT by CaliforniaCon
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To: RonDog
If this is true and by some miracle we actually win.the first thing McCain needs to do is appoint an FCC that takes downthe Networks.
40 posted on 10/26/2008 2:11:26 AM PDT by bilhosty
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To: CaliforniaCon
"The last 72 hours would be fine if not for all the EARLY VOTING going on."

Undecideds and apathetics do not vote early.

Plenty of Republicans vote early.

yitbos

41 posted on 10/26/2008 2:13:58 AM PDT by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds.")
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To: informavoracious

No...they aren’t “us”.

They are centrist democrats who are so totally ticked off with the DNC, and with other issues.


42 posted on 10/26/2008 2:18:34 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (Sarah'cuda Rocks!)
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To: Carolina Engineer
McCain WILL take Pa.... that's where it will be decided.... after Pa falls into McCain/Palin column ... the rest will fall into place.....
To be extra ordinary optimistic.. McCain/Palin take California..
43 posted on 10/26/2008 2:22:28 AM PDT by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM .53 : 1 The FOOL hath said in his heart, there is no GOD.)
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To: bruinbirdman

RE: “Undecideds and apathetics do not vote early.

Plenty of Republicans vote early.”

************

OK, if you say so — I really didn’t think about it in that way. Last 72 hours it is, then! I’m old; remember when there were two ways to vote: absentee by mail, and in person on election day.

Sure hope the last blast from McCain-Palin helps!


44 posted on 10/26/2008 2:30:18 AM PDT by CaliforniaCon
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To: GnuHere

Ultimate Schadenfrud if Murtha cost Zero to loose PA, and thus the election..


45 posted on 10/26/2008 2:31:06 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: DoughtyOne

From what I’ve gathered, at least one third will be voting for Sarah. ;o)

The funny thing is that they’ve been posting on their sites threads from here, and from Hot Air and other conservative sites.

They are centrist dems, who feel they were royally screwed during the primaries. I tend to agree with them. There will be a movie of some sort that will spell out the caucus fraud shortly.

Barry, and his minions, had very special plans for his candidacy.

They are livid with the DNC, and where’s Howard Dean? Oh...he’s been cut off at the knees.

Don’t discount the PUMAs...they will be formidable in this election.

I hope if any of them decide to join here, they will be treated with respect. I’ve never seen such a bunch of amazing women in my life!


46 posted on 10/26/2008 2:31:33 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (Sarah'cuda Rocks!)
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To: ken5050

Murtha’s toast, and it’s good to see you. ;o)


47 posted on 10/26/2008 2:32:46 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (Sarah'cuda Rocks!)
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To: dixiechick2000

Go PUMA`s! We need you! Thank you.


48 posted on 10/26/2008 2:37:29 AM PDT by toddausauras
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To: dixiechick2000
I hope if any of them decide to join here, they will be treated with respect. I’ve never seen such a bunch of amazing women in my life!...

Well... anyone who comes to this site only has to keep one thing in mind: This is a "Conservative" site. All the Rudy supporters found out about that real quick. You can't support gun control, abortion or the homosexual agenda on this site and expect respect. I don't exactly know what makes a PUMA a PUMA but I am pretty sure many of them would hold dear to those issues if they are buying into the Democrat platform.

49 posted on 10/26/2008 2:46:34 AM PDT by missnry (The truth will set you free ... and drive liberals Crazy!)
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To: DoughtyOne

The thing is they recognize how completely dangerous and horrible Obama is.


50 posted on 10/26/2008 2:50:41 AM PDT by Bellflower (A Brand New Day Is Coming!)
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