Posted on 10/26/2008 7:58:38 PM PDT by lonestar67
Look I am so tired of us all in denial. Unless McCain unloads this week we will lose. The polls aren’t all off..Not some grand conspiracy..It may indeed be closer and things can change as about 10 percent of people minimum can be persuaded..but if McPain doesn’t want to fire any weapons “metaphor” we will lose. It is that simple.
Excellent article...like water to a man in the desert...With all the megativism in the MSM about McCain/Palin, it makes you wonder just how seriously wrong the MSM are...
The MSM should be there to report the news, not so shape it, and definitely not to twist the facts to make it seem inevitable that a particular Party will win..
This is grossly unfair and Americans should take it out of the media’s hide for it’s deviousness...
On one point we agree:
People are in denial.
With Republicans not participating with exit pollsters, the MSM will want to call this thing very early. We may be able to watch Zero’s presidency evaporate as the votes honestly tally.
Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.
Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115426/posts
I’m going with the AOL straw poll. You have to register to vote and only one vote per week and they register your vote by state... 203,000 votes last week 52/42 McCain won... and states that were blue on prior weeks have been turning red by the week. The latest poll started Friday, McCain is winning.
Look I want McCain to win badly..but we all should be pressing McCain to push something that will work such as run good ads of Barack Obama in his own words. His sales pitch has sucked so far and that is only reason he is behind. If he could complete sentences and make good Republican arguements combined with all of Obamas weakness he would win..he has 1 week to run add with Obama no hand over heart in national anthem or Obama saying cut defense etc...
(3rd Early Voting Indicator) National Polls May Be Way Off - What the pollsters are doing!!!
particularly post #3 and #10.
Good analysis, well done.
So true — just about everyone has discussed tax issues entirely on Obamessiah’s turf — such as assuming his “tax cuts for 95%” is remotely accurate.
In reality, as you note, by allowing the Bush tax cuts to “expire” Obama will effectively impose a tax hike on far more than 5% of the population.
I would also argue that Obama’s current “tax plan” cannot possibly be regarded as credible — it is merely the Axelrod plan formulated for viability at the polls. Once in office, Obama’s wish list of nearly $1 trillion in new programs, plus all the other things that every socialist wants to do, will require far higher taxes for virtually all taxpayers.
There was an election in the UK in 1992, when the Conservatives beat the Labour Party. Labour was widely expected to win, but they lost - in spite of an unpopular Conservative government. One reason the pollsters got it wrong was the ‘Shy Tory Factor’. Basically, it was uncool to admit that you were going to vote Tory - particularly amongst young people.
There were two reasons why Labour lost. Most importantly, people didn’t trust their tax policies. Secondly, Labour had a swagger, they believed they were going to win.
I believe there are strong parallels between your election in 2008 and the 1992 UK election. I would guess that in America, in certain areas, it’s very uncool to say you’re going to vote for McCain - particularly if you’re young. Yet in the privacy of the polling booth your peer group disappears, and you don’t even have to worry about how a pollster might judge you.
Also, I really concur with the article’s PUMA point. WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PUMAS!? Did they meekly fall in line behind their vanquished leader, and will they now do tribute to the all-conquering Obama? Surely not? There was major resentment here, it’s not going to go away, is it?
And most PUMAs, if they’re dyed-in-the-wall democrats, are surely not going to admit that they’re going to vote for McCain? They might even not admit they’re going to abstain.
There’s also the question of hubris and nemesis, of the kind Sarah Palin talked about in Tampa. The Democrats are behaving like a losing party. You don’t take your victory for granted if you’re really going to win, do you? On a psychological level, those who crow about their future victory are often aware, unconsciously, that they’re going to lose.
Anyway, if there’s any election that’s going to be a major upset, it’s going to be this one.
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