Posted on 10/27/2008 6:40:13 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 174 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 364 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 192.70 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/20/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/13/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
There are some just awesome bets out there.
3-1 odds for a McCain/Palin win in Florida! Oh man!
Better than 6-1 odds in PA.
8-1 odds on a McCain win in NH! WOW!
Wow! I wish I had some serious money to put into that market. Obama is seriously over valued.
I am sad, very sad, that this election may put us on a terrible downward trend...
T heard on CNN there’s a Irish gambling company already paying out on an Obama win as if it’s a locked in done deal. Crazy.
In trade had Bush at around 40% the weeks before the 2004 election. I bought a bunch and made a killing.
As a futures market, they pretty much suck. The amount of volume is fairly small and they generally show movement after the fact, not before.
Still, I’m buying up stock in Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio.
The odds on them are ridiculous. With accurate reweighing, McCain is solid in the first 2 and about over even to make it in Ohio.
The Intraders have drunken the kool-aid of biased polling.
Agreed...
If you want to really take advantage of the “system” and take home some change as well.... Bet heavy on McCain....
I believe you’re right—the polls are fudged; I’m not sure by how much. But consider this: Intrade represents real money that people are betting. If they relied on polls that can be proven to have been doctored, and they lose, do they have a case of any kind against the pollsters?
Your map is more realistic but I would put Mi as a toss-up.
Mi is far closer than the polls are showing.
I like your map better!
Truthfully, I think the actual results will be very similar to the map you posted, Igntar.
What a crock of sh**. That’s my opinion, no discussions on fantasy projections are necessary or desired.
Let's think about intrade. They really blew it with Sarah Palin being picked as VP candidate. They are not infallible, in fact they screw up quite frequently.
Well, this is showing that Obama wins Fla, VA, PA, CO, Nevada, Ohio, all the swing states. McCain leads in some of these now. So, we are to expect that he is going to lose those?
Personally, I think the traders are very wrong about those states.
If I had the money, I would buy McCain futures contracts in those states.
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