Posted on 10/27/2008 10:29:31 AM PDT by GOPinCa
Here in Kalifornia, McCain-Palin supporters are starting to come out of the closet. Lot’s of yard signs and bumper stickers. Proposition 8 will also drive a lot of Republicans to the polls who may otherwise stay home. Prop. 8 is going to make the Obama lead in Kali very slim.
Exactly.
Prop 8 is really going to get the conservative vote out.
This is the “Bradley effect” State.
People here understand there is no corporate tax. Corporations just pass them back to the consumer.
Not a billion to one, but still very poor. The population has changed a lot since Reagan/GHWB ran.
Many Republican voters have died, retired and moved, military voters have switched bases as most CA bases closed, many more liberals from other states have moved in (something thats been going on for decades, the same effect as in Virginia/NC).
And most importantly many more immigrants are now voting, primarily Latino/Mexican, plus theres a great increase in second-third generation native-born Hispanics (the children of immigrants that are now of voting age) have changed the political balance overall.
If McCain/Palin can carry California, it will be a Real Republican Blow-Out.
Aren’t early ballots also tied in Florida between the Dims and the GOP? I have also voted by absentee for McCain/Palin so I find this interesting.
I don’t know. I have voted absentee ballot for the last 10 years and the 2 conservative friends I have do the same.. the 20 or so dem folks I know, in my circle, are simply living life in the moment and are not together enough to mail back the form to get an absentee ballot..
plain and simple, conservatives think ahead, we manage our lives a bit better. So I don’t think it means all that much, other than conservatives vote early because absentee voting is a far better time management tool.
Prop 8 is supposed to bring out the conservative vote.
“Prop 8 is supposed to bring out the conservative vote.”
Ah, you have a point there, my friend. This could be what’s causing it and if so, it’s a very good sign for Prop 8.
They may buy into Marxist redistribution of wealth but the immigrant Catholic population is against abortion and homosexuality.
How is Prop 8 looking? Does it look like an amendment protecting traditional marriage will pass?
With 12 initiatives on the ballot, many folks are still trying to make heads or tails of their ballot.
It probably won't happen. If McCain is competitive in Kalifornia, though, Obombom is in deep trouble. Obombom is what my daughter calls him. It's sooo cute!
Prop 8 will be close. Our AG fooled around with the wording in an effort to make it more difficult to pass. Even if it passes, there will be judicial challanges. The most optimistic I can be is that it is getting out the vote.
i’m in the Bay Area ... I never lose hope here, though. The recall election brought us 63% of the voters pulling the lever for an (R). Previously stable towns here (including the one I work in) are turning into barrios, and I think even the center-lefts are getting sick of the entire slide.
Even Code Pink has evacuated from Berkeley. It could be turning...
I have a business partner in California that claims that CA may be the November surprise. He says that behind the scenes the McCain people are tying themselves to the Prop 8 voters. He thinks from talking to the GOP reps out there that they are shooting at having McCain come within 5% of the yes on Prop 8 vote. So if Prop 8 wins with 55%????
I can see a large number of Prop 8 voters supporting McCain but I dismissed this as soon as we spoke. Maybe I was wrong...
I rather doubt it...military voters are among the most disenfrachised segement of the electorate. In 2004, roughly a million military members and their dependents cast absentee ballots; almost 2/3 were tossed out, usually because they arrived too late to be counted.
Dig a little further, and you’ll find the biggest problems in heavily-populated counties with Dims running the election apparatus. They often don’t mail out the ballots until the last possible moment, knowing that deployed service members can never complete and return them by the the deadline.
You’ll also find Congressional Democrats are doing their part to nullify military votes. This year alone, the Democratic majority in the House refused to act on GOP proposals to (a) pressue DoD to improve military voting, and (b) require that absentee ballots from armed forces members be returned to the states by the fastest possible means. The California Republican who sponsored that measure estimated that it would cut return time from 3-4 weeks (current average for an overseas military absentee ballot),to 3-4 days.
To answer your question, I’d be greatly surprised if military votes represented a significant portion of the California total. If the Dims in that state are using the standard playbook, absentee ballots from CA were mailed to APO addresses in mid-October, with the realization that most will be returned after the deadline.
One final thought: Karl Rove made an excellent point in discussing the “early vote” issue on Fox News Sunday. As he observed, the early vote tallies seem impressive for the Dims (in some cases), but how much will that affect turnout on election day? He cited some statistics from North Carolina, where early turnout has been heavy among the Dims. In 2004, there was a similar, early turnout for Democrats, but it cut into their voter totals on election day. The odds of a Dim tsunami in early voting and next Tuesday is actually remote.
It means what it means . What happened in 2004 means nothing.
Wishful thinking on my part, but I would love to see Crissy Matthews face on the night of the election if it were announced Calif was in the McCain column.
Don't count on it this year. I have NEVER seen such a lack of enthusiasm for a Democrat candidate until now. Hussein may win CA but don't expect that kind of margin.
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