IBD/TIPP poll lead down to 2.8

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309983953253118 ^

[PaRep]

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Fifteen

Posted Monday, October 27, 2008

After seesawing between 3.2 and 3.9 points over the weekend, Obama's lead slipped to 2.8 Monday. Battleground also has Obama up 3, and other polls have tightened, including Rasmussen, Zogby and Gallup to 5. Some polls show swings in independents, but IBD/TIPP has them in a stable, 5-point range. Read more

[mwl8787]

good news bump

[LikeLight]

McMentum!

If you factor in huge 0 leads in blue-blue states, this bides very well for McCuda in battlegrounds.

[Fred]

Youtube - OBAMA SAYS CONSTITUTION DEEP FLAW CONTINUES TODAY



Marxist

[Galtoid]

Obama has yet to reach 50+ in this poll. Go McPalin!

[Paine in the Neck]

Anybody have experience with Intrade? I’m thinking of taking a flyer. McCain’s way down there so if he pulls this off, there’s some money to be made.

[rightinthemiddle]

Yes, that’s why he could win most of the battleground states.

[elizabetty]

Rush Limbaugh just said the dems have a very SLIGHT lead in early voting in California.

The press is trying to demoralize you and you should respond by taking two people to vote!!!

[rom]

And he never will. All those undecideds are going to break for McCain whether this week or in the voting booth.

[VOR78]

I’m keeping my eye on the numbers for the rural and suburban vote. His lead on the latter appears to be declining a bit, but if McCain can continue to lead those by double-digits (and if it holds in the actual results), the Obama supporters are going to be crying late next Tuesday night.

[The G Man]

[Thickman]

I bought too early on inTrade, but I dollar cost averaged on the downside and have McCain for an average of 27. That’s 27 cents to get a dollar. At under 13 cents now, McCain is a steal.

[justlurking]

LOL, Looks like PaRep won today! :-)

I wasn't even in the running.

[PaRep]

I just went to IBD web site & it was up LUCKY I GUESS !! LOL!!

[Harry Wurzbach]

I’m keeping my eye on the numbers for the rural and suburban vote. His lead on the latter appears to be declining a bit, but if McCain can continue to lead those by double-digits (and if it holds in the actual results), the Obama supporters are going to be crying late next Tuesday night.

YES. Obama has run essentially an 'urban' campaign. Well, more like an urban+colleges+blacks campaign. That's too narrow of a base to win a national election, in my opinion. When have the Dems not had those constituencies? The campaign is based simply on increasing the turnout from those groups. But at the cost of getting trounced by rural and suburban voters?

Gore and Kerry could at least keep the margin of loss among those groups relatively low. Now we have a Dem candidate who is outright hostile to these groups. This is why I think McCain will come through with a solid win next week. The leftist media takes the Kerry voters for granted and assumes that Obama will build upon it. That is foolish. Obama doesn't have all of the Kerry voters. There are plenty of disaffected Democrats who won't be voting for him, and most of them hail from the country and from the 'burbs. Finally, are we really to believe that a sizable number of Bush voters who at the time were voting for an allegedly arch-conservative president will now flip to voting for the most left-wing presidential candidate ever?

The Obama campaign really screwed up in this election. Early on Obama should have spent time establishing that he could relate to middle America. He could have spent a lot of time emphasizing that his Kansan grandparents had a profound impact on his life. His campaign should have been about how he was a candidate who represented America, from rural Kansas to inner-city Chicago, and that his dream was to further unify the country moving forward.

Instead, he opted to go for the hard base of his party, to represent a movement of racial grievances and urban, far left sensibilities. Now he's left with a rural and suburban electorate who just cannot relate to him. It's amazing how his campaign made this strategic error. Is there any doubt that a Hillary Clinton wouldn't be up a solid, real, 10 points in this campaign right now, with a very good showing of supporter among rural and suburban voters?

[Harry Wurzbach]

edit: “...with a very good showing of support...”

[jilliane]

LOL

[justlurking]

Previous results of IBD/TIPP poll from 2008 and 2004 here:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pLKmTgcVm7Pd_N-_t7U2cVQ

Looks like the undecideds are starting to break mostly for McCain.

[latina4dubya]

dems have a very SLIGHT lead in early voting in California.

and that's just in party identity... i know some California Dems who are voting for McCain...

[kevkrom]

Reposting from duplicate thread:

---

Weighted to 2006 turnout, I get O 47.0, M 44.8 — a more historically correct turnout gives Obama a 46.7 to 45.2 lead.

What % of the undecideds need to break for McCain to tie it up? Just 59%, and I’m estimating no less than 67% of the undecideds breaking for McCain, which would give him a 50.6 to 49.4 lead.

---

The methodology is simple, even simplistic. I take the poll’s response by party, in this case Republicans (McCain 88, Obama 6, Undecided 6), Democrats (Obama 87, McCain 9, Undecided 4), and Independents (Obama 44, McCain 39, Undecided 17). Then I multiply each of those numbers by what history says are reasonable party identification — in 2006, the actual turnout was 35/38/27 R/D/I; historically 36/38/26 is more common. I add the numbers together for each candidate, and that’s his share of the vote.

A spreadsheet helps. A lot.

One recent tweak is that I’ve added a separate calculation to project where the “undecided” vote will go, and then update the candidate totals accordingly. This is entirely dependent on guessing, and should be treated as such, but under the assumption that McCain gets the undecideds in a 2:1 ratio or better, he’s ahead, according to IBD (and ARG for that matter, but I don;t trust them).

[PaRep]

As everyone expected If they haven’t found a reason to vote for Obama by now they aren’t voting for him

[outlawjake]

I think Obama’s Birth certificate-citizenships problem.. and his odd secrecy.. may have started to have an effect. Although the mainstream media is not reporting it.. it is all over the internet and is gaining traction..

[Palin4ever]

I wonder how the DUmmies are reacting to this poll?

[Blue Turtle]

Interesting you mention that....I thought it was just some trumped up rumor. But the more he hides it, seals it, and doesn’t produce it...the more suspect I become.

[PaRep]

An outbreak of FUDGED Underwear I suspect

[jimmur281974]

Why is IBD concerned enough with the other polls to mention?

[RockinRight]

My gut says that the current undecideds will break about 3-1 or 4-1 for McCain, which means he wins.

[MooseChic]

If you compare yesterday’s IBD poll and today’s, the undecided voters seem to be shifting towards McCain. Someone told that the undecideds are actually decideds for McCain. Good news indeed. Better yet, the numbers that you see for Obama on the last poll will be the one he will be getting. If he is below 49 on the election night, it will be a landslide for McCain.

[tatown]

Using Party Weighting from the 2004 Exit Polls (37R, 37D, 26I):

McCain-46%, Obama-45.8%, Undecided-8.2%

Keep in mind that the vast majority of the undecideds are going to move into the McCain column.

[techno]

McCain narrowed Obama’s lead among Jewish voters by 23 points in one day (69-18) to (61-33).

[Parley Baer]

Figuring big population states such as California and New York are heavily dimocRAT they will skew the national polls. The key is to watch the individual states and their polls.

[shaft29]

i know who McCotter is, but who is Joe the Plumber. Have I missed something?

[Cedric]

When people get an unexpected call from a pollster, it takes them a little while to start tracking.

They, in fact, might not be sure if it's a poll, a push-poll or an overt campaign call, by the time the questioning begins.

Hence, just to make sure they don't subject themselves to a bunch of partisan crap, some McCain voters simply say, “Undecided.”

[kalee]

I recommend poll callers be told, “I see the voting booth sort of like some see a trip to Vegas, what happens there stays there. MYOB”

[bailmeout]

Overall, positive trends.

Good news:

• Undecideds are gradually moving to McCain. Obama's 47% equals his previous peak on 10/18. McCain's 44% is +4% vs 10/18. Undecideds are -4% vs 10/18. A point for point shift to McCain.
• Married women were +12 for McCain.
• McCain's up big with suburban and rural voters, with 14% of suburban voters undecided.

Puzzling results:

• Obama is still even with McCain among Catholics, despite being the most radically pro-abortion candidate in history.
• 20% of self-identified conservatives prefer an obvious neo-Com.

[BCrago66]

10/27 44.2% 47.0% 8.8% Obama +2.8

10/26 43.3% 46.5% 10.1% Obama +3.2

10/25 41.9% 45.8% 12.2% Obama +3.9

10/24 42.3% 45.8% 11.9% Obama +3.5

10/23 43.7% 44.8% 11.6% Obama +1.1

10/22 42.0% 45.7% 12.3% Obama +3.7

10/21 40.9% 46.9% 12.1% Obama +6.0

10/20 41.4% 46.7% 11.9% Obama +5.3

10/19 41.5% 46.6% 11.9% Obama +5.1

10/18 39.8% 47.2% 13.0% Obama +7.3

10/17 40.6% 45.9% 13.5% Obama +5.3

10/16 41.6% 45.2% 13.2% Obama +3.6

10/15 41.9% 45.2% 12.9% Obama +3.3

10/14 41.9% 44.8% 13.3% Obama +3.0

10/13 42.7% 44.8% 12.5% Obama +2.1

(This chart is below the cross-tabs available at the IBD paged the poster linked to.)

Check out what's happened since 10/17, when the number of undecideds peaked at 13.5%. Today, the undecided figure is at 8.8%, a difference of 4.7%.

And of that 4.7, McCain has taken 3.6, moving from 40.6 on 10/17 to 44.2 today. Obama, for his part, has taken a measley 1.1, moving from 45.9 on 10/17 to 47 today.

Conclusion: Undecideds are breaking for McCain at a rate of 3.6/4.7, which = 77 percent.

If this trend continues, McCain will get about 6.7 of the remaining 8.8 undecideds, which would = 50.9 percent of the total vote.

[techno]

Also McCain gained 23 points with Jewish voters in one day in relation to Obama.

[Personal Responsibility]

i thought he was a steal at 20. Down to 12.5, that’s a HUGE buy!

[TMA62]

What all these polls tighten further this week as the 2001 radio interview is spread (and commercials are made from it).

I predict a dead heat by Friday.

[Chet 99]

Considering the sample size, that may have come from two respondents.

[Beeman]

You beat me to the punch. I was just figuring this out based on the highest uncommitted numbers to the numbers we have today. My analysis is almost exactly the same as yours, showing McCain takes 6.6 of the remaining undecideds giving him the win. This follows with the trend since 10/17.

[Beeman]

With the new video, Joe the Plumber, and the new Wright ads, McCain will likely be leading in this poll by Friday.

[yazoo]

Nothing likely scares a campaign more than seeing the polls begin to tighten a week before the election. At this stage people are beginning to think about who they will vote for and it is trending toward McCain.

[Names Ash Housewares]

[techno]

McCain is 2.8 back via IBD/TIPP and 3% via Battleground; instead of CNN reporting that the race is tightening all they’re focused on now so late in the camapign is asking questions if John Mccain made the right pick in choosing Sarah and that she is now a ‘diva’ acting as if diva is equivalent to Marxist, racist, or traitor.

[wolf24]

bump

[hoosiermama]

Jewish & Cuban voters understand the meaning of socialism and the significance of the local TV station being punished for asking questions.

[VA40]

I don't get these “undecideds”, but when I can't decide on something in general, I go for the safest bet. Obama the “change” guy, is not going to be the safest bet. McCain will win this.

[BCrago66]

Cool. If your result is similar to mine, that’s evidence that I didn’t screw up :-)

[petercooper]

bttt