Posted on 10/27/2008 4:15:25 PM PDT by Chet 99
THE POLL: Marist College poll in the presidential race of likely voters in New Hampshire.
THE NUMBERS: 50 percent Barack Obama, 45 percent John McCain.
OF INTEREST: A day after a Boston Globe poll showed Obama with a 15-percentage point lead in New Hampshire, the Marist College poll shows him with only a slight lead.
DETAILS: Telephone poll of 655 like voters conducted Oct. 22-23. Sampling margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at boston.com ...
Slight lead? Then McCain has NH in the bag.
C’mon John let’s get these 4 EVs for safe measure - this week will see Missouri, Nevada, NC, Florida and Virginia safely back into the fold. The day before election will see Ohio - Colorado to me is the real question mark in this election. I’ve written off New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Iowa (why he’s there still boggles me some)
OCT. 23-24 old poll?
So did they over poll Dems by 8 or 9, 10?
OOPS...Meant 22-23
NH turns red. I think Obama loses it.
Poll is old. Chet is new.
Kerry won in NH.
This is the second recent poll showing McCain within striking distance. A good omen.
Problem he is still at 50 and that’s scary!
The AP calling this a ‘slim lead?’ Do I sense fairness and objectivity from the AP??? That’s a first. Usually, when Obama is up by 5, the media acts as if its an insurmountable lead and that McCain may as well just give up.
72-hour poll not old in my book, although, the numbers are now probably worse in NH for Obama.
McCain’s views on low taxes and small government will resonate with the Granite State. I’m positive this whole “share the wealth” business is dragging down Obama there. Keep driving the point home.
Key word “Marist”
enough said....
McCain is going to win.
..
Assuming McCain wins NH, Obama wins PA, and Obama flips NM and IA, then holding all the other states constant from ‘04, Obama could force a tie by winning Colorado. Of course, there’s still Maine’s 2nd congressional district.
If Mac wins NH, then I think that’s the harbinger of an interesting election night. A McCain win in PA and basically it’s over. Mac could lose IA, NM, CO, and VA and still win if he wins PA. But if he wins PA then he’ll win VA.
..McCain’s success in 2000 and 2008 indicates that he has a lot of connections in the state—he’ll win NH IMO...
Weighted polls and the Bradley effect. I think they may be running scared and that’s why biden went ballistic when the reporters didn’t follow the script. Looks like they’re in panic mode. I hope so.
Ras has it at 4. Marist at 5. It may be less. If Mac pushes extra hard in this final stretch we will win.
I’m going to make it simple for everyone. If McCain takes NH, he wins. If he doesn’t he may still win but it may be a long, long night.
Has McCain ever lost New Hampshire in any primary?
Remember also, Kerry was the Masshole from next door to many transplants from Mass. Idiot though he was (and still is), he wasn’t a radical from Chicago. I think that NH will go McCain.
So after factoring in all the illegals, dead people and cartoon characters that will be voting I predict a win for J 144 to 93.
+ or - 8 points.
New Hampshire has the highest proportion of white voters of any state. It was also the state with the largest margin of error for all of the pollsters in the Democrat primary.
not directed at you chet but I would not call a 5 point lead slight
our last two elections were a fraction of that
that said I think either the race or the polling ...has tightened
like Biden’s spincter probably did before he got that first call from Barry after Biden told the world Obama’s inexperience would invite a threat to the US
I think because he needs it. George Bush won Iowa last time and New Mexico. Even if he picks up NH it only even with the loss of NM. He needs something else if he loses Iowa.
Could I ask a question: With almost everyone having a cell phone these days and many people do NOT have a land line; how accurate are all these polls?
Help me out here; anybody.
Could I ask a question: With almost everyone having a cell phone these days and many people do NOT have a land line; how accurate are all these polls?
Help me out here; anybody.
Wouldn’t it be priceless, an absolute miracle, if Mac won PA? Boy that would sure put egg on a lot of faces.
I can dream (and PRAY) can’t I?
New Hampshire (or, why I’m going to demonstrate that this poll is meaningless no matter what it says):
2004: 50-49 Kerry
2000: 48-47 Bush
1996: 49-49 (combining Dole and Perot totals together)
2004 exit poll: D25, R32, I44 (56-42 Kerry, who ran as a New Englander and favorite son, being from neighboring Massachusetts and all that), with 95% of electorate consisting of white voters (versus 77% nationally). Oh, and 38% Catholic, as opposed to 27% nationally. Bush won that vote against Catholic John Kerry 52-47 in NH (same as the national average). FYI.
McCain is going to win New Hampshire, 51-49 or something like that. He is much better positioned to win this state than Southerner Bush was against New Englander, favorite son, and Catholic John Kerry. Plus, he won the NH back in February while Obama substantially underperformed his poll numbers in the primary against Hillary.
New Hampshire (or, why I’m going to demonstrate that this poll is meaningless no matter what it says):
2004: 50-49 Kerry
2000: 48-47 Bush
1996: 49-49 (combining Dole and Perot totals together)
2004 exit poll: D25, R32, I44 (56-42 Kerry, who ran as a New Englander and favorite son, being from neighboring Massachusetts and all that), with 95% of electorate consisting of white voters (versus 77% nationally). Oh, and 38% Catholic, as opposed to 27% nationally. Bush won that vote against Catholic John Kerry 52-47 in NH (same as the national average). FYI.
McCain is going to win New Hampshire, 51-49 or something like that. He is much better positioned to win this state than Southerner Bush was against New Englander, favorite son, and Catholic John Kerry. Plus, he won the NH back in February while Obama substantially underperformed his poll numbers in the primary against Hillary.
Never. McCain is 2 for 2 in NH, one against a “favorite son” New Englander.
I predict McCain takes Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
Please pray! Our county is at stake!:^)
Don’t write off Pa. I think McCain/Palin will take Pa.
If they win PA and NH , then they take the White House !!! I can finally hope again :) Hopefully McCain will resign in 2010 due to health reasons and we get President Palin :) Most importantly NOBAMA !!
Gallup polls cell phone only users. Gallup has reported no measurable differences in candidate preference in this group.
“one against a “favorite son” New Englander”
Hehe, my apprentice (a twenty year old Obama supporter) says his dad told him to never ever vote for Kerry.
I told him he should go back to daddy and ask him what he thinks of Obama.
AND, for good measure, I believe Jack Murtha will go down in flames! Bill Russell is giving him a run for his (tons of) money in the Pa. 12th Congressional District.
McCain/Palin in 08! NObama!
Bill Russell in 08! NO Murtha!
No Republican I know takes polling calls. NH has a high percentage of undeclared voters, so it is hard to get accurate polling data.
A lot of people in this state moved here to reduce their tax burden. They are in no hurry to see a socialist in the White House.
Our only problem is the liberals and college students clustered around UNH and Dartmouth.
Thanks. I wonder where they get their Cell Phone Directory of numbers.
> Kerry won in NH.
Just barely. Maybe 51-49.
Kerry is still looked upon as a “war hero” up here by those who haven’t done their homework.
Kerry is also a US Senator from a border state, from which many of our current NH residents came.
Obama has neither advantage in NH. Not good for him.
There were folks down the road from us who had an Obama sign. They took it down themselves after they heard Rev. Wright saying, “Godd***n America!”
The closer you get to the center of town, the more 0bama signs you see.
Concord, the capital, is virtually all 0bama. Manchester, which has a larger, and more blue-collar population, leans more towards Mac/Palin.
Nashua and the other southern suburbs bordering Massachusetts have a lot of Massacusetts transplants, so that entire, heavily populated region is likely to go for 0bama.
And more than a few college students who have already voted by absentee ballot in their home towns will also be voting in their college towns, so we expect a LOT of voter fraud. Unpunished voter fraud, I might add.
That might give 0bama the advantage he needs to take NH.
With jackass murtha to help.
From your lips to God’s ears.
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