Posted on 10/27/2008 5:42:05 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
One of the mysteries of this campaign year has been why John McCain keeps campaigning in Pennsylvania when the polls show him far behind Barack Obama there—51 percent to 41 percent in the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls as I write. A clue comes from the most recent poll there by SurveyUSA, which helpfully provides a regional breakdown of results. SurveyUSA, as it has consistently done, shows McCain running within the margin of error in the southwest (metro Pittsburgh and surroundings) and in the Northeast (Scranton and the anthracite country), which historically are very Democratic areas. Joe Biden's Scranton roots and the support of Scranton-based Bob Casey don't seem to be doing Obama much good there. McCain carries the west-central and south-central areas, as most Republicans do. But he is incredibly weak—behind Obama 64 percent to 32 percent in the southeast, which includes about 40 percent of the state's voters. Most of this area is metropolitan Philadelphia, which George W. Bush lost in 2004 by a 62 percent to 37 percent margin; the remainder is presumably Lehigh, Northampton, Berks, and Lancaster counties, where Bush ran better. The regional breakdown in the most recent Quinnipiac poll tells exactly the same story.
In other words, McCain is running even with or better than Bush in most of Pennsylvania but is running far behind in metro Philly.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
Perhaps McCain would be far ahead in Pennsylvania if he just insulted them more.
Barones a MORON !!!
Philthy was 29% of the Vote in 2004 not 41% vote You George McGovern Voter in 1972
Michael Barone has an interesting take on the contest for Pennsylvania, which nearly voted for Bush in 2004. McCain is running strongly outside the Philadelphia area, but getting crushed in the city and its suburbs, due largely to the mortgage crisis.
Question: Why did that Philly news station decide to give Biden a tough interview? I follow the conventional wisdom that local news stations that go against the grain like that must have some viewership that would appreciate that.
Thoughts?
LOL, if only the DemocRATS would insult Philadelphia...
Well, that’s a big flaw in his reasoning then.
lol
No he’s is saying that Philthy comprises 41% of the Pa. Vote in 2004 that was 29% of the vote that haven’t increased their % 12% in 4 years BARONE IS AN INSIDE THE BELTWAY MORON
I don’t know. We can only hope that outstate Pennsylvania gives McCain more than the usual Republican vote and that the Philly suburbs come to their senses.
Folks, anyone that votes like that, I call that stupid!!!
Was Barone talking about Philly itself, or the Philadelphia metropolitan area (including suburban Delaware, Chester, and Bucks Counties)?
I SEE STUPID People.....sheesh....this election is certainly clarifying what kind of brains people have....
I am in the Lehigh Valley (about 70 minutes north of Philly) and our street has nearly all McCain signs. The therapist I am going to says her sister is a doctor (?) in Philly and nobody in the office likes Obama.
I am hopeful for PA and think the polls may be way off.
Here in Indiana, I could really get a tingle up my leg for candidates that called me a redneck racist hillbilly moron!
I would have to really early vote.
The majority of the Pollsters lean Leftward, and therefore over sample those respondents who are like minded.
It's really interesting Barone and others don't have the cajones to come out and say this; it may be due to the fear of being disinvited to CNN's The Situation Room to schmooze it up with Wolf Blitzer.
There’s no way that a black Marxist baby-killer named Barack Hussein Obama is running strong in Lancaster County.
I think they define Regions, But I don’t know for sure Because Philly suburbs are a completely different animal the Philly itself
I am surprised that Michael Barone, of all people, would be relying so heavily on SurveyUSA and Quinnapiac polls, both of which are consistently oversampling Democrats and/or undersampling Republicans. I bet McCain is relying instead on his own internal polls. Moreover, if McCain is running even or better than Bush in most of the state (as he should be doing and seems to be doing), but running slightly worse in the Philly area, then the state should still be very close. And Obama cannot afford to lose PA any more than McCain can afford to lose Ohio or Florida.
I think McCain is taking two additional factors into account. One, he does have a specific proposal to help people facing foreclosures. Two, and I keep coming back to this, Hillary trounced Obama in PA. As part of that, Obama underperformed in the Philly area and surrounding areas during the primaries.
You have hit the nail on the head. People are looking for the facts about Obama. The media has not asked the tough questions so far and I do believe that there are a few Hillary supporters in the Filthy area that are not happy about how things turned out. There is an audience in Filthy that wants to see the truth about the media’s Messiah exposed.
He’s right. Southeastern PA is part of Megaopolis and has about 40% of the state’s population.
McCain should be running better in the suburbs than he is now, that was where his strength always was as a moderate Republican very similar to the Northeastern tradition.
McCain needs to gain some traction by attacking Obama’s socialism and suburb comment. He also needs a clear economic policy to get America out of this mess. I hope he can pull it off. There are 7 days left.
We’ll know in a week or so who is dished BS and who is not.
“...if only the DemocRATS would insult Philadelphia....”
Philadelphians would not even realize they are being insulted.
No, you didn't read the article. He says that Philly AND the surrounding counties, which used to be Republican, account for 40% of the vote. Those counties around Philly are going to vote Democrat and against their own best interests because they are angry and taking it out on the Republicans because their house values and their 401K's have lost a lot of $.
I'm stunned Barone keeps going back to polls that have shown themselves to be far removed from historical precedent. I don't get it. This guy knows more about districts' and precincts' voting histories all across this nation, yet he's apparently ignoring previous outcomes in favor of the "surging Dem turnout." We'll see if he's right or if he's eating a healthy portion of crow for Thanksgiving.
Oh, who am I kidding? If McCain/Palin do win (as I expect they will) the media, and probably most FReepers, will be talking about what an amazing comeback it was. The garbage polls probably won't even be thought of again, until probably the 2010 elections by us.
I get so sick of hearing about people going for the commiebama because of the economy.
WHY?!?!?!
I know the talking heads say it is because they associate the economic downturn with Bush. Do they really think that an unapologetic MARXIST will be better?!?!?!?
I have never in my entire life been so frustrated at the STUPIDITY of the voters this cycle.
If it is ignorance then that is somewhat forgiveable as it shows a lack of information. In this day and age with the MSM that lack of info is expected. On the other hand there is PLENTY of good info on the web and talk radio.
But ANY voter owes it to themselves and more importantly the country to examine each candidate under a microscope. Have we become so lazy and stupid that we will thrust our country into what could be its demise because we are angry at Bush?!?!
Won’t we even bother to check each candidate thoroughly? How childish and irresponsible to vote on emotions alone.
Wouldn't they do better by poking themselves in the eye with a stick?
I don't think McCain is getting "crushed."
My good friend is running for Penna. State Assembly and has access to the latest polling, and as of about two weeks ago, Obama was up by three points 47-44% in this Bucks County, Pa. district which has a Democrat registration edge.
UMM Watch & see SPARKY Watch & See Conservatives DON’T Answer Pollsters calls
The polls he is taaking as Gospel SurveyUSA which has had a 15% advantage to D’s then R’s when it’s 5%
“My good friend is running for Penna. State Assembly and has access to the latest polling, and as of about two weeks ago, Obama was up by three points 47-44% in this Bucks County, Pa. district which has a Democrat registration edge.”
That’s encouraging news.
I thought PUMA had our back in Philly. Weren’t they planning a big rescue there this week end.
OTAY BUCKWHEAT he is using SurveyUSA & Morniing Call which VASTLY OVERSAMPLE D’s. NEXT ARGUMENT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My neighbor actually made a t-shirt similar to that.
Oh how they forget Palin. Bush had Cheney. I suspect she might gain McCain a few votes that a solid but somewhat unexciting man might not. Just a thought.
Thoughts?
Thoughts? Well, I thought that news station was in Florida for starters.
Oh how they forget Palin. Bush had Cheney. I suspect she might gain McCain a few votes that a solid but somewhat unexciting man might not. Just a thought.
Barone is missing the point that Obama is not your Clintonian, triangulating, centrist Dem.
In addition, the ‘spread the wealth’ line of attack by McCain is not just an attack on tax policy, but an attack on values. But it’s not values as in the social issue sense, but rather in the American dream sense. Now, yes, the declines in home values and stock prices may make some gloomy as to the American dream, I’m not so sure it will make as much of a difference as Barone believes.
It’s one thing to be angry about what’s happened in the housing and stock markets, but is that enough to scrap our way of life altogether and move to an un-American socialist model? What happens when the markets rebound?
There has been one recent poll which showed that Americans still prefer the old model to some kind of heavy redistributive model by a factor of more than 4 to 1. McCain is on the right line of attack. Are we going to change the role of the state with regards to the individual simply because of a downturn?
In addition, for whatever margin Obama may enjoy in SE Pennsylvania, he is giving it up in the rest of PA.
Happened twice. Once in Floridan once in Philly.
Out here in Central PA, we call ourselves redneck gun and Bible clingers. We never knew it was an insult.
buckwheat??? i am not saying that the polls are not flawed etc. barone is simply referencing the tools at hand and analyzing the data. that is what he does. he is not a pollster, he is an analyst. i am not saying he is flawless and always right either but he is NOT a moron.
personally, i think the polls are definitely wrong in PA and i beleive that mccain can pull an upset. I am personally working for the campaign in PA.
That man is a walkin', talkin' encyclopedia.
If he was REALLY GOOD like you think He would Realized they are OVERSAMPLING BEYOND belief
A democrat hack polling outfit today did a Poll for N.C. & I can’t remember the weighting but it was ridiculously bad
“should still be very close. And Obama cannot afford to lose PA any more than McCain can afford to lose Ohio or Florida.”
I can’t speak for Ohio, but my gut feeling is Gov. Sarah is going to take Florida.
Trust me, I noticed that!
Trust me, the women voters do too.
In other words, McCain will likely lose the state by two and a half points, same as Bush.
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