Posted on 10/28/2008 9:34:23 AM PDT by Teacher317
Yahoo's current top story features a map that I think is a fair starting point for any electoral analysis. Barring anything huge in the final week, the electoral votes that are basically already decided look like this: Obama 234, McCain 163, Undecided 141.
Obama thus needs to add only 36 EV's. The 11 unclaimed states are:
FL 27
PA 21
OH 20
NC 15
VA 13
IN 11
MO 11
CO 9
NM 5
NV 5
NH 4
If Obama takes only CO and FL (36 total EV), it's over. If he fails in six of the biggest seven prizes here, he still wins (with NH, NV, NM, CO, and VA, totalling exactly 36)... and to me, those 5 seem like they could easily go for Obama.
McCain seems likely for IN and NC, but the MSM likes keeping them "in play" this year, I guess.
At any rate, McCain is up against it. Palin's boost is pretty much over (being well-defended by the MSM). Obama has millions of dollars and lawyers ready to roll at any time. Vote fraud has been given the Ohio stamp of approval. It will take one heck of a push by the GOP and maybe a grassroots effort to ensure that Obama does not take the Oath of Office on Jan 20.
McCain might lose NM but I think he takes the rest of the availables you mentioned.
ping
Who says all those other States already belong to BO?
PA is huge. I also have a gut feeling that there will be surprise somewhere else. maybe Iowa. Maybe Wisc ?
IMHO I only believe Obama has a realistic shot at NM and CO in that list. I am confident McCain can carry the others, with PA being the one “suprise” (for the MSM, that is).
Obama can’t be sworn in because he was born in Kenya.
I think their could be surprises in both directions. I think it has a chance to be really weird.
So there! LOL!
I guess the electoral college analysis is dependent upon accuracy of the polls.
New Mexico will probably go to Obama as well as Colorado.
The Repubs SHOULD take the other states. But with the economy and Bush’s miserable showing in popularity polls, who knows.
A lot depends on how accurate those polls really are, and I’m not convinced they are not biased.
Time will tell, but I’ll still keep hoping and praying and working for McCain/Palin.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Did anyone see the youtube vid of Biden today? Now the tax cut us for anyone under $150,000! The tape of Obama's Marxism happened yesterday. They are blowing it a different way every day. It's not over yet...
PA 21 McCain. I just don't believe religious gunowners will vote for a 3rd World marxist.
OH 20 McCain. Even mainstream polls have him up here. McCain in a romp
NC 15 McCain. No way NC goes Communist.
VA 13 McCain. Ditto
IN 11 McCain, in a close vote.
MO 11 Tossup. Will say for B. Hussein just for kicks.
CO 9 John Elway sez this is for McCain
NM 5 B. Hussein. Surprised it went to Bush in 2004.
NV 5 Tossup. Think it might go B. Hussein.
NH 4 B. Hussein
this makes for McCain 279, B. Hussein Obama 259.
EXACTLY what I was just thinking.
I’m listening to left radio right now, Ed Schultz, and he and the dems are worried about early voting.
The Youths aren’t showing up in the numbers they want. Sound worried.
We’re not going to get NM. We need to run the table on the others. If we lose CO or VA and especially FL or OH, we’re done.
I’m praying for favor from on high about this. May the Good Lord persuade the hearts of these supreme court justices to rule in our favor. May God bless and save our great nation.
I won’t say McCain has it locked up but his campaign appearances tell you a lot. I’ve been going door to door and I’m hearing stuff, the pollsters aren’t. I have trouble getting out the door sometimes. There’s a huge amount of anti-Obama sentiment that’s not being reported. People do not trust Obama. I’m hearing stuff that could only come off the internet from people that don’t have internet access. People are talking. But not to pollsters.
Obama’s chances are slim to none based on what I’ve seen.
If McCain suddenly denounced amnesty and offered to deport illegal aliens, he might win. But illegal aliens are too dear to him or he is controlled by foreign interests that even to win he would not turn his back on these invaders of our land.
Two other things that could turn the election in J. McCain's favor: B. Hussein's birth certificate. However, this is a little too late and if after Nov. 4, then Biden would end up president. Another one is that 2001 speech. I don't understand why it wasn't circulated earlier. Even Hillary missed it. Now it might be too late. (Rev. Wright should have knocked Hussein out of the election long ago, but media didn't let it happen.)
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
“It will take one heck of a push by the GOP and maybe a grassroots effort to ensure that Obama does not take the Oath of Office on Jan 20”
Not to worry, even if Obama takes the ‘oath’ it won’t be worth a da%$ to him.
Seriously though, I think the MSM is doing now what it did during the last 2 national elections. Their perpetual hyperventilating over the DNC candidate is nothing new. Add to that the unique Liberal talent for self-inebriation and their permanent state of clinical hysteria, and you can see what’s going on.
If a candidate wins the most votes in one of those state's congressional districts (Nebraska has 3, Maine has 2), then he would get one of the state’s electoral votes, even if he gets fewer votes statewide than his opponent. Bush won Nebraska in 2004 with 66% of the vote. Kerry won Maine in 2004 with only 54%... and central Maine did go for Bush (Piscataquis county).
Which ones do you think go for McCain instead, and why (other than raw hope)?
I don’t totally disagree, but nothing you say merits choosing Obama over McCain
“Comments”: Yahoo. Need I say more?
“Arguments”: I would argue that you’re stuck in an altered universe or state of consciousness. This is the only reasonable explanation a Freeper would cite a Yahoo “source”.
(Well, okay, we could lose Alaksa, or Wyoming, or a Dakota, or Montana, and still win... but that's not realistic for Obama, LOL.)
I think the discontented Hillary supporters, and dems who claim to be fiscally conservative may swing a few of the states who have been considered solidly liberal this year.
For the first time in about, oh, ten years, I have switched my homepage from Yahoo because of this and other election stories. And I certainly didn’t switch it to Google.
At our central committee meeting last night someone well placed in the McCain campaign told us that Iowa is as tight this year as it was in 2004. In fact, McCain is in the same position at this point in the campaign that Bush was in back in 2004. In other words, it is winnable but the polls just aren’t reporting it.
Yahoo isn’t my source. They posted a map that seems like a fair starting point for an electoral map discussion. I didn’t even link to the Yahoo map itself. The only change from the 2004 results in their “settled” states was Iowa, which doesn’t seem unreasonable, since Obama is currently up by 13 points there. That seems fair. Why don’t you give some analytical point about the EV race?
I predict all “undecideds” will break for McCain.
Whoa!!! North Dakota has a dead heat, with Obama sliughtly ahead? That's more surprising than Indiana!! (But again, add 5-6 for the GOP to account for slanted polling practices, and McCain wins each by 3-4%... but still, surprising!)
Based on what, may I ask? 11-for-11 is a tough run... and PA is polling +11% for Obama. I can see a 5-6 point swing due to slanted polling... but eleven? That seems like a longshot... and PA went for Kerry in 2004 (51-49, with a 144,248 vote difference).
I like your outlook.
The only problem with PA is that a lot of Obama’s support is coming from the Republican leaning white suburbs of Philly, where the upscale voters who are pissed because their home values and 401k’s are taking a beating.
I worry that they may offset the Religious gun owners.
Okay, I’m really depressed now. But God is in control...PRAY,PRAY, PRAY!
They also refuse to admit they don't have iphones or flat screens.
I apologize if I’ve offended you. It would appear that my humor missed its mark, although, my response was also meant as social commentary on my critique of the MSM. Their “reporting” on the general landscape of current data being circulated, which supposedly shows Obama with a decided lead over McCain, reflects their new math.
If history reveals any truth about this current election, we should recognize the similarities between the “overwhelming” support Kerry received during his campaign before being defeated to that of Obama.
I don't buy that WI is solid Obama. Bush barely lost in 04. Remember angry man from the WI rally? The folks in WI are motivated. Obama -10 for solid 224.
None of the southern states nor Indiana are going to Obama. Bank on it. Thinking that that any of these states will go to Obama is leftist wishful thinking.
FL 27
NC 15
VA 13
MO 11
IN 11
Total = 77
McCain +77. Obama solid 224 (46 to win), McCain solid 240 (30 to win).
Now we have a race.
Let's give Obama NM. Obama 229 (41 to win), McCain 240 (30 to win)
Tossup states:
CO 9
NV 5
NH 4
PA 21
OH 20
WI 10
Game over if McCain takes PA and OH. Game almost but not totally over if Obama wins both. IMO, more likely for McCain than Obama to take both (remember the Dem primaries). Advantage McCain.
If they split OH and PA, McCain has the easier path to victory. Obama would essentially have to run the table in the tossup states to win.
If McCain loses one of the southern states, a win in PA offsets this loss and he's still in the better position.
Unless one assumes that Obama can make very significant gains in the south (not likely), McCain is in a better position.
Welcome to FR. For someone with so much opinion, you sure joined us late. Was DU getting boring?
Oh, I wasn’t offended. I was just trying to direct the thread towards qualitative analysis. Sorry about that wording!
Game actually over if Obama takes both. You gave him NM, leaving him 41 short. OH (20) and PA (21) gives him the exact count necessary, unless Maine splits off one EV.
It's going to be an interesting week next week!!!!
Certainly. As I noted, they generally skew 5-6 points to the Dems. Yahoo's "projected EV totals" has it going 355-156 for Obama. Even a modest win, like Bush's 2004 tally (286-235) would seem like an spectacular defeat with that as one's mental starting point. (A mandate even! LOL)
Using the Oct 26 map in the Yahoo article, and adding just 4 points for McCain to each state's polling, McCain erases Obama's supposed lead in IN, MO, ND, NV, FL, and NC.
For the other 5 "battleground states", Obama is supposedly up 4.5% in OH, up 7% in VA, up 11% in PA, up 8% in CO, and up 7% in NM.
Telling, isn't it, that OH (Obama up 4.5%) and PA (Obama up 11%) are "battleground states", and yet GA (McCain up 5%), WV (McCain up 8%), and MT (McCain up 3%) are not. Clearly, the pollsters take that slanted polls into account, too. Either 5-10% is a solid lead, or it isn't. Making it secure only for McCain shows that they know the polls are off. It ain't over yet!
I’m going to say McCain, 311. I think Pa is going red early, and that should help bring Colorado and New Mexico into line.
McCain would have to win overwhelmingly in PA, and people would have to stop lying to pollsters if they’re exit-polled, for the media to call PA for McCain in time to affect Colorado and New Mexico. They’ll probably wait until 2 in the morning if they can get away with it.
Good point. Looking at the polling data at Pa thread, I think it’s a 3 point race right now. I’m expecting McCain to surge this week, and for Easy Ed and the Clinton gang to help out the cause. So I say McCain by 50 or 60 thousand votes in Pa.
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