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Electoral Votes: Obama/Biden 234, McCain/Palin 163 (Vanity)
10-28-08 | Teacher317

Posted on 10/28/2008 9:34:23 AM PDT by Teacher317

Yahoo's current top story features a map that I think is a fair starting point for any electoral analysis. Barring anything huge in the final week, the electoral votes that are basically already decided look like this: Obama 234, McCain 163, Undecided 141.

Obama thus needs to add only 36 EV's. The 11 unclaimed states are:

FL 27
PA 21
OH 20
NC 15
VA 13
IN 11
MO 11
CO 9
NM 5
NV 5
NH 4

If Obama takes only CO and FL (36 total EV), it's over. If he fails in six of the biggest seven prizes here, he still wins (with NH, NV, NM, CO, and VA, totalling exactly 36)... and to me, those 5 seem like they could easily go for Obama.

McCain seems likely for IN and NC, but the MSM likes keeping them "in play" this year, I guess.

At any rate, McCain is up against it. Palin's boost is pretty much over (being well-defended by the MSM). Obama has millions of dollars and lawyers ready to roll at any time. Vote fraud has been given the Ohio stamp of approval. It will take one heck of a push by the GOP and maybe a grassroots effort to ensure that Obama does not take the Oath of Office on Jan 20.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: electoral; uselessvanity
Comments and arguments?
1 posted on 10/28/2008 9:34:23 AM PDT by Teacher317
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To: Teacher317
Yahoo's Graphic


2 posted on 10/28/2008 9:36:35 AM PDT by BGHater (The GOP, the new DNC.)
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To: Teacher317

McCain might lose NM but I think he takes the rest of the availables you mentioned.


3 posted on 10/28/2008 9:36:42 AM PDT by Genoa
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To: Chet 99; DesertRhino; Frantzie; GOP_Lady; HamiltonJay; impeachedrapist; IndependentWahoo; ...

ping


4 posted on 10/28/2008 9:37:01 AM PDT by Perdogg (Raila Amollo Odinga - community organizer)
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To: Teacher317

Who says all those other States already belong to BO?


5 posted on 10/28/2008 9:37:18 AM PDT by WhyisaTexasgirlinPA (Obama prays to himself: "The prayer that I tell myself every night ...")
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To: Teacher317

PA is huge. I also have a gut feeling that there will be surprise somewhere else. maybe Iowa. Maybe Wisc ?


6 posted on 10/28/2008 9:37:26 AM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative (SP for VP ! ......GO SARAH !)
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To: Teacher317

IMHO I only believe Obama has a realistic shot at NM and CO in that list. I am confident McCain can carry the others, with PA being the one “suprise” (for the MSM, that is).


7 posted on 10/28/2008 9:37:43 AM PDT by edpc
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To: Teacher317

Obama can’t be sworn in because he was born in Kenya.


8 posted on 10/28/2008 9:37:51 AM PDT by library user
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

I think their could be surprises in both directions. I think it has a chance to be really weird.


9 posted on 10/28/2008 9:38:32 AM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: Teacher317
Pretty much the same pablum we have been seeing and the foundation of the argument the MSM has been using to say McCain is a longshot. Only problem is that all respect for the polls only about 3 of those states are really up for grabs.
10 posted on 10/28/2008 9:38:36 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: Teacher317
I simply don't share your pessimism. I continue to predict that McCain will win in a landslide, and that we will take back both houses of congress.

So there! LOL!

11 posted on 10/28/2008 9:39:26 AM PDT by basil (Support the Second Amendment-buy another gun today!)
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To: Teacher317

I guess the electoral college analysis is dependent upon accuracy of the polls.

New Mexico will probably go to Obama as well as Colorado.

The Repubs SHOULD take the other states. But with the economy and Bush’s miserable showing in popularity polls, who knows.

A lot depends on how accurate those polls really are, and I’m not convinced they are not biased.

Time will tell, but I’ll still keep hoping and praying and working for McCain/Palin.


12 posted on 10/28/2008 9:39:48 AM PDT by ZULU (Non nobis, non nobis Domine, sed nomini tuo da gloriam. God, guts and guns made America great.)
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To: Teacher317
I think that's way way way off. If the election is a done deal, then why are the polls continuing to tighten? It should be the opposite and everything points to a trend to McCain though the polls won't pick it up til after the election. Yahoo's model is complete rotgut garbage and rests on the assumption that Obama has this huge vote edge that is very difficult for McCain to overcome. Well if its there, why is Obama well within the MOE with a week to go to the election?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

13 posted on 10/28/2008 9:40:17 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: BGHater
Looks like the Bush Kerry map from 2004. It assumes Obama will pick up a couple of Red States. IND, OH, VA, NC, FL are going to stay Red. McCain flips NH for NM. The race comes down to PA and CO.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

14 posted on 10/28/2008 9:42:58 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Teacher317
The sound of shoes dropping off the other foot are occuring daily for the Obama campaign. McCain is still very much in contention.

Did anyone see the youtube vid of Biden today? Now the tax cut us for anyone under $150,000! The tape of Obama's Marxism happened yesterday. They are blowing it a different way every day. It's not over yet...

15 posted on 10/28/2008 9:44:17 AM PDT by Nachum (Obama: Liar for hire)
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To: Teacher317
FL 27 McCain, far easier than expected

PA 21 McCain. I just don't believe religious gunowners will vote for a 3rd World marxist.

OH 20 McCain. Even mainstream polls have him up here. McCain in a romp

NC 15 McCain. No way NC goes Communist.

VA 13 McCain. Ditto

IN 11 McCain, in a close vote.

MO 11 Tossup. Will say for B. Hussein just for kicks.

CO 9 John Elway sez this is for McCain

NM 5 B. Hussein. Surprised it went to Bush in 2004.

NV 5 Tossup. Think it might go B. Hussein.

NH 4 B. Hussein

this makes for McCain 279, B. Hussein Obama 259.

16 posted on 10/28/2008 9:44:35 AM PDT by HammerOfTheDogs
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To: WhyisaTexasgirlinPA

EXACTLY what I was just thinking.


17 posted on 10/28/2008 9:45:10 AM PDT by Godsgirl
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To: goldstategop

I’m listening to left radio right now, Ed Schultz, and he and the dems are worried about early voting.

The Youths aren’t showing up in the numbers they want. Sound worried.


18 posted on 10/28/2008 9:45:35 AM PDT by BGHater (The GOP, the new DNC.)
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To: Teacher317

We’re not going to get NM. We need to run the table on the others. If we lose CO or VA and especially FL or OH, we’re done.


19 posted on 10/28/2008 9:46:40 AM PDT by chimera
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To: library user

I’m praying for favor from on high about this. May the Good Lord persuade the hearts of these supreme court justices to rule in our favor. May God bless and save our great nation.


20 posted on 10/28/2008 9:47:58 AM PDT by Godsgirl
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To: Teacher317

I won’t say McCain has it locked up but his campaign appearances tell you a lot. I’ve been going door to door and I’m hearing stuff, the pollsters aren’t. I have trouble getting out the door sometimes. There’s a huge amount of anti-Obama sentiment that’s not being reported. People do not trust Obama. I’m hearing stuff that could only come off the internet from people that don’t have internet access. People are talking. But not to pollsters.

Obama’s chances are slim to none based on what I’ve seen.


21 posted on 10/28/2008 9:49:49 AM PDT by meatloaf
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To: Teacher317
How many really believe John McCain can win? Sure Sarah Palin gave him a boost, and the media went after her. But when it comes to pushing the button, very few vote for the vice president. The economy is a crucial issue, and McCain declared he knows little about it and further messed up with the bailout.

If McCain suddenly denounced amnesty and offered to deport illegal aliens, he might win. But illegal aliens are too dear to him or he is controlled by foreign interests that even to win he would not turn his back on these invaders of our land.

Two other things that could turn the election in J. McCain's favor: B. Hussein's birth certificate. However, this is a little too late and if after Nov. 4, then Biden would end up president. Another one is that 2001 speech. I don't understand why it wasn't circulated earlier. Even Hillary missed it. Now it might be too late. (Rev. Wright should have knocked Hussein out of the election long ago, but media didn't let it happen.)

22 posted on 10/28/2008 9:50:12 AM PDT by apocalypto
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To: BGHater
Agreed. There's been all this talk of a huge Dem turnout. If it doesn't materialize, Obama will lose and the Democrats won't have their congressional supermajorities. So far voting appears to be even like in the 2000 election. In fact, its entirely possible for Obama, like Gore, to win the popular vote and still lose in the EC. The fact Obama is not up by 10+ lends a great deal of weight to the notion he's not going to have the easy victory the pundits are talking about.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

23 posted on 10/28/2008 9:50:25 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Teacher317

“It will take one heck of a push by the GOP and maybe a grassroots effort to ensure that Obama does not take the Oath of Office on Jan 20”

Not to worry, even if Obama takes the ‘oath’ it won’t be worth a da%$ to him.

Seriously though, I think the MSM is doing now what it did during the last 2 national elections. Their perpetual hyperventilating over the DNC candidate is nothing new. Add to that the unique Liberal talent for self-inebriation and their permanent state of clinical hysteria, and you can see what’s going on.


24 posted on 10/28/2008 9:50:28 AM PDT by SMARTY
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To: Teacher317
An important thought: don't Maine and Nebraska split their EV's? IIRC, the way Maine splits their EVs almost guarantees one vote for the minority party (unless one party gets more than 75% of the vote). That sole vote could be crucially important, if McCain does carry OH, PA, FL, IN, NC, and MO.

If a candidate wins the most votes in one of those state's congressional districts (Nebraska has 3, Maine has 2), then he would get one of the state’s electoral votes, even if he gets fewer votes statewide than his opponent. Bush won Nebraska in 2004 with 66% of the vote. Kerry won Maine in 2004 with only 54%... and central Maine did go for Bush (Piscataquis county).

25 posted on 10/28/2008 9:50:29 AM PDT by Teacher317 (Suddenly a big time Palin supporter... who's that McCabe guy?)
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To: WhyisaTexasgirlinPA

Which ones do you think go for McCain instead, and why (other than raw hope)?


26 posted on 10/28/2008 9:52:03 AM PDT by Teacher317 (Suddenly a big time Palin supporter... who's that McCabe guy?)
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To: apocalypto

I don’t totally disagree, but nothing you say merits choosing Obama over McCain


27 posted on 10/28/2008 9:52:16 AM PDT by SMARTY
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To: Teacher317

“Comments”: Yahoo. Need I say more?
“Arguments”: I would argue that you’re stuck in an altered universe or state of consciousness. This is the only reasonable explanation a Freeper would cite a Yahoo “source”.


28 posted on 10/28/2008 9:57:56 AM PDT by This Just In
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To: WhyisaTexasgirlinPA
Recall that the 2004 map:Kerry took all of the Pacific states (except Alaska), the entire Great Lakes region (except Indiana and Ohio)and anything northeast of DC. EVERYTHING else went for Bush. The posted map copies that format, with only Iowa changing... and the Iowa polls seems to back that up. Iowa (7 EV) and New Mexico (5 EV) both seem to be going for Obama, changing the 2004 results (286-254) to 274-266 for McCain... but ANY other GOP state changing after that will be a win for Obama.

(Well, okay, we could lose Alaksa, or Wyoming, or a Dakota, or Montana, and still win... but that's not realistic for Obama, LOL.)

29 posted on 10/28/2008 9:59:39 AM PDT by Teacher317 (Suddenly a big time Palin supporter... who's that McCabe guy?)
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To: Teacher317

I think the discontented Hillary supporters, and dems who claim to be fiscally conservative may swing a few of the states who have been considered solidly liberal this year.


30 posted on 10/28/2008 9:59:43 AM PDT by WhyisaTexasgirlinPA (Obama prays to himself: "The prayer that I tell myself every night ...")
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To: Teacher317

For the first time in about, oh, ten years, I have switched my homepage from Yahoo because of this and other election stories. And I certainly didn’t switch it to Google.


31 posted on 10/28/2008 10:00:45 AM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

At our central committee meeting last night someone well placed in the McCain campaign told us that Iowa is as tight this year as it was in 2004. In fact, McCain is in the same position at this point in the campaign that Bush was in back in 2004. In other words, it is winnable but the polls just aren’t reporting it.


32 posted on 10/28/2008 10:01:21 AM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: This Just In

Yahoo isn’t my source. They posted a map that seems like a fair starting point for an electoral map discussion. I didn’t even link to the Yahoo map itself. The only change from the 2004 results in their “settled” states was Iowa, which doesn’t seem unreasonable, since Obama is currently up by 13 points there. That seems fair. Why don’t you give some analytical point about the EV race?


33 posted on 10/28/2008 10:02:05 AM PDT by Teacher317 (Suddenly a big time Palin supporter... who's that McCabe guy?)
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To: Teacher317

I predict all “undecideds” will break for McCain.


34 posted on 10/28/2008 10:04:00 AM PDT by Deb (Beat him, strip him and bring him to my tent!)
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To: Opinionated Blowhard
Does anyone have a link for a reliable PA poll? The Yahoo linked map has Obama up 11 points there. All of the other "battleground" states in my list are within 5 points, except VA, CO, and NM (all 7-8% advantage for Obama). Anything under 5 points seems to be a good shot for the GOP, since most pools seems to add about 5-6 points for the Dems.

Whoa!!! North Dakota has a dead heat, with Obama sliughtly ahead? That's more surprising than Indiana!! (But again, add 5-6 for the GOP to account for slanted polling practices, and McCain wins each by 3-4%... but still, surprising!)

35 posted on 10/28/2008 10:07:51 AM PDT by Teacher317 (Suddenly a big time Palin supporter... who's that McCabe guy?)
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To: Deb

Based on what, may I ask? 11-for-11 is a tough run... and PA is polling +11% for Obama. I can see a 5-6 point swing due to slanted polling... but eleven? That seems like a longshot... and PA went for Kerry in 2004 (51-49, with a 144,248 vote difference).


36 posted on 10/28/2008 10:10:36 AM PDT by Teacher317 (Suddenly a big time Palin supporter... who's that McCabe guy?)
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To: HammerOfTheDogs

I like your outlook.

The only problem with PA is that a lot of Obama’s support is coming from the Republican leaning white suburbs of Philly, where the upscale voters who are pissed because their home values and 401k’s are taking a beating.

I worry that they may offset the Religious gun owners.


37 posted on 10/28/2008 10:14:48 AM PDT by Retired Greyhound
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To: Teacher317

Okay, I’m really depressed now. But God is in control...PRAY,PRAY, PRAY!


38 posted on 10/28/2008 10:18:16 AM PDT by ladymac
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To: Teacher317
I stand by my fabulous theory. I contend that weak-spined "undecideds" are are too undecidedly weak-spined be admit they aren't voting for the cool (black) guy.

They also refuse to admit they don't have iphones or flat screens.

39 posted on 10/28/2008 10:20:00 AM PDT by Deb (Beat him, strip him and bring him to my tent!)
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To: Teacher317

I apologize if I’ve offended you. It would appear that my humor missed its mark, although, my response was also meant as social commentary on my critique of the MSM. Their “reporting” on the general landscape of current data being circulated, which supposedly shows Obama with a decided lead over McCain, reflects their new math.

If history reveals any truth about this current election, we should recognize the similarities between the “overwhelming” support Kerry received during his campaign before being defeated to that of Obama.


40 posted on 10/28/2008 10:29:38 AM PDT by This Just In
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To: Teacher317
Starting Point: Obama 234, McCain 163. IMO, this is skewed by faulty polls.

I don't buy that WI is solid Obama. Bush barely lost in 04. Remember angry man from the WI rally? The folks in WI are motivated. Obama -10 for solid 224.

None of the southern states nor Indiana are going to Obama. Bank on it. Thinking that that any of these states will go to Obama is leftist wishful thinking.
FL 27
NC 15
VA 13
MO 11
IN 11
Total = 77

McCain +77. Obama solid 224 (46 to win), McCain solid 240 (30 to win).
Now we have a race.

Let's give Obama NM. Obama 229 (41 to win), McCain 240 (30 to win)

Tossup states:
CO 9
NV 5
NH 4
PA 21
OH 20
WI 10

Game over if McCain takes PA and OH. Game almost but not totally over if Obama wins both. IMO, more likely for McCain than Obama to take both (remember the Dem primaries). Advantage McCain.

If they split OH and PA, McCain has the easier path to victory. Obama would essentially have to run the table in the tossup states to win.

If McCain loses one of the southern states, a win in PA offsets this loss and he's still in the better position.

Unless one assumes that Obama can make very significant gains in the south (not likely), McCain is in a better position.

41 posted on 10/28/2008 10:31:47 AM PDT by bailmeout ("During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act" - G Orwell)
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To: apocalypto

Welcome to FR. For someone with so much opinion, you sure joined us late. Was DU getting boring?


42 posted on 10/28/2008 10:40:30 AM PDT by freeplancer (McCain Voters Catch the Lobsters-Obama Voters Eat Them)
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To: This Just In

Oh, I wasn’t offended. I was just trying to direct the thread towards qualitative analysis. Sorry about that wording!


43 posted on 10/28/2008 11:46:21 AM PDT by Teacher317 (Suddenly a big time Palin supporter... who's that McCabe guy?)
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To: bailmeout
Game over if McCain takes PA and OH. Game almost but not totally over if Obama wins both

Game actually over if Obama takes both. You gave him NM, leaving him 41 short. OH (20) and PA (21) gives him the exact count necessary, unless Maine splits off one EV.

It's going to be an interesting week next week!!!!

44 posted on 10/28/2008 11:56:43 AM PDT by Teacher317 (Suddenly a big time Palin supporter... who's that McCabe guy?)
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To: bailmeout
Starting Point: Obama 234, McCain 163. IMO, this is skewed by faulty polls.

Certainly. As I noted, they generally skew 5-6 points to the Dems. Yahoo's "projected EV totals" has it going 355-156 for Obama. Even a modest win, like Bush's 2004 tally (286-235) would seem like an spectacular defeat with that as one's mental starting point. (A mandate even! LOL)

Using the Oct 26 map in the Yahoo article, and adding just 4 points for McCain to each state's polling, McCain erases Obama's supposed lead in IN, MO, ND, NV, FL, and NC.

For the other 5 "battleground states", Obama is supposedly up 4.5% in OH, up 7% in VA, up 11% in PA, up 8% in CO, and up 7% in NM.

Telling, isn't it, that OH (Obama up 4.5%) and PA (Obama up 11%) are "battleground states", and yet GA (McCain up 5%), WV (McCain up 8%), and MT (McCain up 3%) are not. Clearly, the pollsters take that slanted polls into account, too. Either 5-10% is a solid lead, or it isn't. Making it secure only for McCain shows that they know the polls are off. It ain't over yet!

45 posted on 10/28/2008 12:15:41 PM PDT by Teacher317 (Suddenly a big time Palin supporter... who's that McCabe guy?)
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To: BGHater

I’m going to say McCain, 311. I think Pa is going red early, and that should help bring Colorado and New Mexico into line.


46 posted on 10/28/2008 12:18:52 PM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
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To: mainerforglobalwarming

McCain would have to win overwhelmingly in PA, and people would have to stop lying to pollsters if they’re exit-polled, for the media to call PA for McCain in time to affect Colorado and New Mexico. They’ll probably wait until 2 in the morning if they can get away with it.


47 posted on 10/28/2008 12:24:48 PM PDT by Styria
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To: Styria

Good point. Looking at the polling data at Pa thread, I think it’s a 3 point race right now. I’m expecting McCain to surge this week, and for Easy Ed and the Clinton gang to help out the cause. So I say McCain by 50 or 60 thousand votes in Pa.


48 posted on 10/28/2008 12:32:58 PM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
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