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I got some Micro Polling from Pennsylvania.....

Posted on 10/28/2008 9:44:32 AM PDT by Bushite

These were conducted Oct. 23,24,25

Bucks County: O: 49 M: 43 2004 Results: K: 51 B: 48

Allegheny: O: 52 M: 42 2004 Results: K: 57 B: 42

Erie: O: 50 M: 43 2004 Results: K: 54 B: 45

York: M: 57 O: 39 2004 Results: B: 63 K: 35

Montgomery: O: 51 M: 39 2004 Results: K: 55 B: 44


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; antichrist; conspiracy; mccain; obama; pa2008
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1 posted on 10/28/2008 9:44:32 AM PDT by Bushite
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To: Bushite

What is B and K??


2 posted on 10/28/2008 9:46:31 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: Bushite

1.) From where did you get the numbers?
2.) Party ID breakdown is?


3 posted on 10/28/2008 9:46:32 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: Bushite

Not good. M trailing Bush everywhere.


4 posted on 10/28/2008 9:46:38 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: Bushite

So what’s it mean? Looks to me like Obama is underperforming in blue counties and overperforming in red counties.


5 posted on 10/28/2008 9:46:43 AM PDT by ccmay (Too much Law; not enough Order.)
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To: Bushite

Well, if the undecideds break to McCain, he could make up the 2% from 2004 he needs pretty easily. However, if they break evenly, he is pretty much screwed.


6 posted on 10/28/2008 9:47:07 AM PDT by wastedpotential (Proud to be in McCain country in the Buckeye State)
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To: Russ

uhh.......”Burger” and “King”


7 posted on 10/28/2008 9:47:18 AM PDT by Cosmo (Liberalism is for girls)
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To: LS

Zero trailing Kerry everywhere but York as well. Undecideds tend to break against the black candidate historically.


8 posted on 10/28/2008 9:48:14 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: LS
Not good. M trailing Bush everywhere

That's because the 2004 results encompass the undecideds. These poll numbers do not include them.

-ccm

9 posted on 10/28/2008 9:48:22 AM PDT by ccmay (Too much Law; not enough Order.)
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To: Russ

Bush and Kerry.


10 posted on 10/28/2008 9:48:22 AM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: LS
Not good. M trailing Bush everywhere

That's because the 2004 results encompass the undecideds. These poll numbers do not include them.

-ccm

11 posted on 10/28/2008 9:48:22 AM PDT by ccmay (Too much Law; not enough Order.)
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To: LS

Not so fast. Notice O trails K most everywhere as well. There seem to be more “undecideds” this time. That is very good, IMO.


12 posted on 10/28/2008 9:48:22 AM PDT by RobRoy (Islam is a greater threat to the world today than Nazism was in the 1930's.)
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To: Russ

Bush..and Kerry.


13 posted on 10/28/2008 9:48:59 AM PDT by Bushite
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To: LS

Only in Bucks, and that’s only 3 points off. Everywhere else is similar to 2004, meaning its close. If the #s are real that is. Where do they come from?


14 posted on 10/28/2008 9:49:42 AM PDT by RIRed
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To: RobRoy

There’s room here. But it’s a tight, tight window.


15 posted on 10/28/2008 9:49:54 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: Bushite

Eh. These numbers look like we’ll lose PA by the same margins as 2004. :(


16 posted on 10/28/2008 9:50:26 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: LS

You’re missing the point. Obama isn’t doing as well as Kerry did against Bush, except in York County. This is bad news for Obama, because it’s largely blue counties.


17 posted on 10/28/2008 9:50:51 AM PDT by NonZeroSum
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To: Chet 99; DesertRhino; Frantzie; GOP_Lady; HamiltonJay; impeachedrapist; Issaquahking; jveritas; ...

ping


18 posted on 10/28/2008 9:50:56 AM PDT by Perdogg (Raila Amollo Odinga - community organizer)
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To: TitansAFC; PhiKapMom; HamiltonJay; LS; impeachedrapist; Perdogg; Kuksool; Clintonfatigued; ...

If true, these are very good numbers. Obama is trailing Kerry except in York. When you factor in undecideds and the Bradley Effect, I think McCain ultimately outperforms Bush.


19 posted on 10/28/2008 9:51:09 AM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: LS

O is also trailing K everywhere. Which means there are a lot of undecideds.

What county is Phil in?

The percent breakdown is O= 48%, Mac almost 45%.

I think that is GREAT news !!! Not the 11+ points we’ve been hearing and it explains why both campaigns are all over PA.

Source?


20 posted on 10/28/2008 9:51:20 AM PDT by Reagan69
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To: Bushite

Chatted with a pollologist to make hide or hair of those numbers, and apparently it all comes down to Obamao’s margins in Philly, if it is below 400k and 80% of the vote, McCain can win PA, if Philly goes 80% for Obamao, it is a tough tough job to win PA.

Basically, McCain has to keep it reasonably close in Philly, and he has to up the margins that Bush got in the rural areas.


21 posted on 10/28/2008 9:51:40 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: snarkytart

Not so fast. Obama is 5% behind Kerry in Allegheny. That’s big. With undecideds and Bradley, Obama may not even make it to these “final” numbers.


22 posted on 10/28/2008 9:52:41 AM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Russ

I sense a ‘duh’ coming ;)


23 posted on 10/28/2008 9:53:22 AM PDT by EDINVA
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To: ccmay; LS
I refer to my questions early in the thread.

According to this, Obama is greatly outperforming Kerry in Pennsylvania.

Obama widens the gap from Bush/Kerry in:
Bucks county by 3%
York County by 18%
Montgomery County by 1%

and Mccain only narrows the gap in:
Allegheny by 5%
Erie by 2%

So Obama will now win PA over McCain GREATER than Gore beat Bush and Kerry beat Bush?!?!?!

Horsecrap. WHERE ARE THE NUMBERS FROM?!?!?!?!?

24 posted on 10/28/2008 9:53:27 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: Bushite

So if the polls are correct, Obama is doing about the same as Kerry did in 2004, maybe slightly better. It’s going to hinge on McCain doing better in Philly than Republicans usually do, or Obama doing worse in terms of turnout.


25 posted on 10/28/2008 9:53:28 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur
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To: RIRed

Didn’t PA go to Kerry in 2004?


26 posted on 10/28/2008 9:54:22 AM PDT by flyfree
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To: Bushite

okay..I added them up to be simple.

Kerry got 253
Bush got 242

So far

Obama is getting 241
McCain is getting 234

For McCain that’s -7 from Bush’s numbers.
For Obama that’s -12 from Kerry’s numbers.

I’m probably all wrong here..LOL
Someone double check me!


27 posted on 10/28/2008 9:56:17 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: TitansAFC; PennsylvaniaMom

ping - I am confused too.


28 posted on 10/28/2008 9:56:19 AM PDT by Perdogg (Raila Amollo Odinga - community organizer)
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To: Bushite

26 posts and we haven’t yet established where these polling #’s come from?


29 posted on 10/28/2008 9:56:26 AM PDT by prolifefirst
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To: padre35

Is a pollogist a doctor of poles? Nevermind.

The undecideds are 7%. That could be a huge factor and I tend to think undies will go mainly for Mac.

Don’t forget, PA would have one of the biggest numbers of PUMAs who are deliberately saying they will vote for Zer-O.

I think if this is true, it is pretty good news.

again, Source?


30 posted on 10/28/2008 9:56:42 AM PDT by Reagan69
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To: Thane_Banquo

I agree! The PUMAs are also huge in PA and they get counted in the Dem vote. Same with the people from Clintons for McCain and Democrats for McCain. Throw in the Bradley effect and I think McCain wins PA and we pick up some Congressional seats.

The PUMAs have a real effort ongoing in PA with help from NY State PUMAs.

The Hillary supporters being livid at Obama is the one factor not being counted in the polling.


31 posted on 10/28/2008 9:57:17 AM PDT by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: Reagan69

A poll Doctor?

No, they work at the Networks...lol!

He has been following PA closely, and is a solid McCain/Palin supporter so I give him the benefit of trust on this issue.

Watch, Tuesday, a Federal Court will order the polls to stay open late in Philly...


32 posted on 10/28/2008 9:58:53 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: TitansAFC

Actually, that’s narrows the gap in York by 10%. That 5% gain by McCain in Allegheny is big. If that had happened in 2004, Bush would have won Pennsylvania.


33 posted on 10/28/2008 9:59:30 AM PDT by mak5
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To: Bushite

Who are you and where did you get these numbers?


34 posted on 10/28/2008 9:59:46 AM PDT by jveritas
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To: TitansAFC

Obama isn’t outperforming Kerry except in one county.


35 posted on 10/28/2008 10:00:32 AM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: prolifefirst

Friend of mine with some very good info.

I would like to keep the details as private as possible to not compromise him.

Party ID is from the hard reg. numbers. (not disclosed)

samples range from 400 LV to 462 LV

THESE are the numbers the McCain campaign HAS.


36 posted on 10/28/2008 10:00:40 AM PDT by Bushite
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To: Bushite

where do these numbers come from?


37 posted on 10/28/2008 10:00:44 AM PDT by Katonah1980 ( toss up.)
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To: LS; All

Three points:

1. The poll was taken 10/23-25 in the aftermath of the huge market drops last week Thursday.

2. McCain is running 5% ahead (there’s that number again) of the Kerry margin of victory in Allegheny county which is the largest of the the group.

3. Whatever Bradley effect there is is most likely to be strongest in PA with all the Racist and Redneck criticism.

This state is close, no doubt, but if that 5% outperform holds up, McCain has a great shot at it.


38 posted on 10/28/2008 10:02:01 AM PDT by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
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To: Bushite

Interesting figures.

Allegheny looks good, to be expected.
I’d assume Luzerne and Lackawanna would look good.
The rest of South West would look good.

South Central (York, as well as Lancaster, Cumberland, Dauphin) might be a problem. Obama did pretty well there in the primary, and Ron Paul did pretty well there.


39 posted on 10/28/2008 10:02:39 AM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: LS

No, it’s not a tight window. The numbers are worse for Obama than for McCain. Mac has an excellent chance.


40 posted on 10/28/2008 10:03:31 AM PDT by GoSarah
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To: PhiKapMom
The PUMAs are also huge in PA

Can someone explain to me why Hillary supporters will supposedly let their resentment move them across party lines while our McCain resentment doesn't do the same to us?

41 posted on 10/28/2008 10:03:38 AM PDT by prolifefirst
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To: LS

It looks like O is underperforming Kerry!


42 posted on 10/28/2008 10:04:07 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: Bushite

Someone tell me, are these numbers discouraging or encouraging?


43 posted on 10/28/2008 10:04:48 AM PDT by babydubya1981 (Homeschooling Moms for McCain/Palin 08)
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To: AmericaUnited

That’s true. At some point, however, McCain is going to have to get a lead in these states.


44 posted on 10/28/2008 10:05:14 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: EDINVA

DUH !!!


45 posted on 10/28/2008 10:05:56 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: Bushite

Bucks County numbers surprise me.


46 posted on 10/28/2008 10:06:29 AM PDT by Heff (Half this country is that stupid.)
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To: Bushite
THESE are the numbers the McCain campaign HAS.

Why wouldn't McCain publish these results to lift spirits?

47 posted on 10/28/2008 10:07:17 AM PDT by prolifefirst
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To: flyfree

Yeah, but it was really close. If McCain is polling in the ballpark of Bush’s results, PA could go either way.

Hopefully these #s are real. I doubt it though.


48 posted on 10/28/2008 10:07:28 AM PDT by RIRed
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To: AmericaUnited

The key for McCain is that he has to do better in Allegheny and the Philly suburbs than Bush did. I think that he will do that.

The other thing is that there are MANY older, FDR Democrats in the PA rural areas who usually vote Dem, but are going to vote for McCain. For example, I grew up in Lancaster, and my grandfather lives up in Columbia county. Most of the old folks up there are registered Democrat, but vote Republican on the national stage. I know some of his friends who reliably vote for Dems, including Kerry last time, who are going to pull the lever for McCain.


49 posted on 10/28/2008 10:07:37 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: prolifefirst
I love the cherry pickling of counties here in the sample. Would be the same as polling Florida and just including Duval, Broward and Palm beach. I gotta hand to the Obama trolls today on FR, they are working overtime and have activated lots of their Obomatons here. Nice poll, pick the Dem heavy counties and extrapolate that to the whole state.
50 posted on 10/28/2008 10:08:22 AM PDT by pburgh01
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