Skip to comments.Gallup Stunner - Obama Down To 2% Lead Nationally!
Posted on 10/28/2008 12:10:24 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Later tonight I will be doing the second Nightly Bi-Poller Report and it will be an interesting post because Gallup has come out today with a stunning poll for their traditional (i.e., historically proven) turnout model:
Even Gallups fanciful Extended turnout model took a huge dip.
(Excerpt) Read more at strata-sphere.com ...
Oh fer sure I am so stuned!
An Ernest rocks bump...peace...
Pray for the best, prepare to meet the worst with tranquility and renewed dedication.
Have the riots started yet?
Gee whiz and I was so looking forward to Obama’s coronation. bwahahahaha!
If barak HUSSEIN obama is not up by 4% on election day, I predict that he will lose by 1 to 2%.
If I’ve done my math right, McCain would have to poll a 51-47 lead in the latest day in order to achieve that swing.
If conservatives get out and vote we’ll win. My great hope is that PA goes red early next tuesday. If that happens obama is done.
The other likely voter model has a 6 point deficit though :(
WE can win this election....
We Must....Related FR Thread:
See the Strata Sphere Blog for some heavy analysis on why that may be a bunch of H***S**it,
Isn’t this just the pre bambi-infomercial set up so they can jack up the polls afterward for bambi and attribute it to his leg-tingling eargasmic nirvanic half hour speech?
Now then, will some enterprising reporter (maybe from Florida or Pennsylvania) ask Biden if he knew that in Obama’s autobiography (of dubious authorship) he states clearly that he sought out particular types of people to hang out withamong them were...”Marxist professors”...
This is a three-day rolling average. The only way for McCain to have turned two consecutive days of 5-point Obama leads into a 2-point Obama lead is if YESTERDAY’S DATA HAD MCCAIN UP 4 POINTS!
((Obama+5) + (Obama+5) + (Obama-4))/3= Obama+2
I watched the rally too in PA - his best speech to date - passionate and funny.
One of my favorite toys this season is the percentage of undecided McCain would need to get to 50.1% of the vote.
Based on these results, 47% McCain, 49% Obama, leaving 4% undecided, McCain would need 77.5% of the undecided to break his way. If as many say this is a referendum on Obama, those he has not sold by election day could all break McCain. [This number includes no effect of Obama getting few votes than he polls. That is another issue.]
Of course how this shakes out in the electoral college, I am not sure. Still the GOP has a built in advantage in the electoral college so getting to 50.1% [which my very rough estimate of 50% + 1 vote] might well get to 270 also.
I’m on my knees (no dirty jokes, men).
God help this country.
Who’d have thunk it, getting caught on tape saying you think the courts should ignore the constitution hurts you in the polls?
Fauxbama is done folks... keep fighting hard, but don’t think for one minute this fool is winning this thing.
I fully expect PA and FL to be called for Obi within 1/2 hour of the polls closing, with plenty of insinuation that he’s “already won it” long before that to discourage late voters.
I can’t believe that Obama has even 2% of the people, let alone 2% LEAD!! Our country is lost.
The “other model” relies on something like 40% turnout of the “youth vote”.
He was great. That is the style of speech he can deliver well. He needs to do it over and over again, and frankly do it at night to compete with O. Surely he can find 3 million for 3 night commercials. Just don’t do it before a sports event like O.
LISTEN UP PEOPLE! Results from various states show that the monster youth, new voter, huge rat advantage IS PURE FICTION! This traditional turnout model is the real deal. MCCAIN/PALIN IS GOING TO WIN!
2 Chronicles 7:14
14 Then if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves, if they will pray and seek me and stop their evil ways, I will hear them from heaven. I will forgive their sin, and I will heal their land.
fyi....gives one hope.
Professor Hill from Temple Univ said on O’Reilly that if Obama isn’t up by 10 points on election day - he Will Lose!!! Let us pray!
DOW UP 600!!! Stock Market is unwinding the Obama crash positions! Yeah!
Does PA have two time zones like Florida?
The election of 200 teacheds us that one can win the electoral with less than 50% in the popular vote.
...but IDB/TIPP today has Obama up 1 to +4. The polls are useless.
I still have faith that we can win too, Ernest. All we've heard in the past weeks are those FOR Obama, the media has run the show. I think conservatives have remained quiet. If Obama wins it will be mostly by fraud.
The quiet man with the moral core has yet to voice his opinion. But I'm still praying like mad, lol.
200=2000, sorry. Oops.
If McCain wins
will be NOBAMA's "GETTYSBURG"
It's all about
Good point. It still is a hard climb.
Well, you’re right. Although they’ve already called it for obama if we’re being honest about things.
Plus if the Obama followers walk into the election with Obama well up, and he loses, then there WILL be riots.
“Go Nitally Lions!!”
When they're only 3-4% apart, then the race will be won by whichever side motivates more of its people to show up on Nov 4.
The polls are simply one more tool used by the MSM to form and sway public opinion and behavior.
When McCain wins PA you will know that the Silent Majority (don't have twenty bumper stickers to show how they care, don't bother to argue empirical facts with full-blown Democrat/Obama Moon Bats, less likely to partake in polls by biased sources that inflate Dem registration numbers, etc.) has returned.
By the way - welcome to Free Republic!
What the heck, since FR is in vanitytown anyway, here’s my analysis of Pennsylvania that I posted on another thread.....
Here’s the thing. When it’s a straight D vs. R fight, Pennsylvania is REAL close. And it’s a microcosm of the country. The rural parts of the state go solid R, urban Philly & Pittsburgh go very heavily D. And actually, the Ds have been doing better lately in places like the Philly burbs, so Dems have had an advantage.
Basically the fight in Pennsylvania revolves, for a Republican, solidifying the rural base and picking up some suburban voters. For the Dem, it’s solidifying the urban base and picking up suburban voters. The last two Presidential elections have followed this model.
HOWEVER, and this is what many of the national people don’t quite get about Northeastern urban politics, when the race has racial overtones as this one obviously does, that throws the numbers WAY off, sometimes wildly. Urban Democrats are of two kinds—you got blacks, and you got ethnic, usually Union, whites. And we’ve seen time and again with mayoral elections that when a candidate is perceived as the “black” candidate, he *does not get* a huge chunk of white Democratic voters.
Case in point, how do you think Rudy Guiliani wins a mayoral election as a Republican against Dinkins in NYC? If you want a PA example, there’s the 1999 mayoral race between Sam Katz (R) and John Street (D) in Philly. Here’s a quote from Wikipedia on this race:
“Katz, running as a liberal to moderate Republican, ran on a platform of cutting the high wage taxes in the city and bringing back businesses which had fled. Street ran citing his support of the Rendell administration’s policies which many had felt rescued the city from a financial crisis. With a 75% voter registration advantage for the Democratic Party, Katz faced an uphill battle.
The race turned out to be racially divisive with Street holding 94% support of the African-American majority wards and Katz boasting support from about 80% of the white-majority wards.  Although both of the city’s major daily newspapers, the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News endorsed Katz’s candidacy, in the end, Street held on to a slight 7,200-vote majority on election day. ”
This is not Pennsylvania as a whole. This is JUST Philadelphia. So in a city with 75% Democrats, the Republican candidate only lost by 7200 votes. 80% of predominantly white wards went for the moderate Republican over the Democrat, even though, and I can’t confirm this but I suspect it’s the case—they were probably majority Democratic wards.
The implications for this election are enormous, if this same dynamic plays out.
Because what is suggests is that white ethnic Union Democrats may simply not vote for the candidate perceived as “the black candidate”. (And for those that don’t know, Street went into this election with some similiar black radical associations that Obama has—he was very much “the black candidate”).
If Obama cannot count on these white Democrats that Kerry got and Gore got, he is finished in Pennsylvania. He simply won’t have enough votes out of Philadelphia to counteract McCain’s advantage in the rural areas and the battleground suburbs.
Bottom line, yes places like Philadelphia usually go Democrat. But when race is a factor, even Philadelphia can’t be taken for granted as a Democratic stronghold. Hillary knew this. And this was the point she made over and over again-—Obama just can’t connect with traditional Democratic constituencies. This is what she meant.
If Obama can’t rely on Philadelphia, he can’t rely on Pittsburgh or Scranton which have (I think) higher proportions of these ethnic white Democrat voters than Philly. It’s impossible for him to win the state in that scenario.
What continues to amaze me is that there are all these people who were never registered to vote before. Yes, you have young, first timers, but it seems funny at the numbers turning up.
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