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Gallup Stunner - Obama Down To 2% Lead Nationally!
Strata Sphere ^ | Oct 28 2008 | AJStrata

Posted on 10/28/2008 12:10:24 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

Later tonight I will be doing the second “Nightly Bi-Poller Report” and it will be an interesting post because Gallup has come out today with a stunning poll for their ‘traditional’ (i.e., historically proven) turnout model:

Even Gallup’s fanciful ‘Extended’ turnout model took a huge dip.

(Excerpt) Read more at strata-sphere.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; gallup; mccain; obama
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1 posted on 10/28/2008 12:10:28 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Oh fer sure I am so stuned!


2 posted on 10/28/2008 12:11:32 PM PDT by Enterprise (No Oil for Democrats!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

3 posted on 10/28/2008 12:12:03 PM PDT by The G Man (The NY Times did "great harm to the United States" - President George W. Bush 6/26/06)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

An Ernest rocks bump...peace...


4 posted on 10/28/2008 12:12:05 PM PDT by Fred (The Democrat Party is the Nadir of Nihilism and OBAMA IS A MARXIST)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
There are still one or two news cycles left before the election.

Pray for the best, prepare to meet the worst with tranquility and renewed dedication.

5 posted on 10/28/2008 12:12:21 PM PDT by wideawake (Why is it that those who like to be called Constitutionalists know the least about the Constitution?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Have the riots started yet?


6 posted on 10/28/2008 12:12:24 PM PDT by fish hawk (Atheism is a non-prophet organization)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

praypraypraypraypraypraypray


7 posted on 10/28/2008 12:12:28 PM PDT by gimme1ibertee (Obama: kill babies,raise taxes...Sarah: raise babies,kill taxes.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Gee whiz and I was so looking forward to Obama’s coronation. bwahahahaha!


8 posted on 10/28/2008 12:12:56 PM PDT by lexington minuteman 1775
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

If barak HUSSEIN obama is not up by 4% on election day, I predict that he will lose by 1 to 2%.


9 posted on 10/28/2008 12:13:10 PM PDT by Grunthor (It's not over until Lady Liberty sings!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

If I’ve done my math right, McCain would have to poll a 51-47 lead in the latest day in order to achieve that swing.


10 posted on 10/28/2008 12:13:42 PM PDT by VOR78
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

If conservatives get out and vote we’ll win. My great hope is that PA goes red early next tuesday. If that happens obama is done.


11 posted on 10/28/2008 12:14:04 PM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

The other likely voter model has a 6 point deficit though :(


12 posted on 10/28/2008 12:14:57 PM PDT by Jmerzio
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To: All; LibertyRocks; backhoe; PhilDragoo; Grampa Dave; Mike Darancette; MeekOneGOP; potlatch; ...
I watched Gov Palin and Senator McCain at the Hersey PA rally this morning thanks to Foxnews...and McCain was more animated than I have ever seen him.....

WE can win this election....

We Must....Related FR Thread:

Barack Obama - Yes I Can Make Us Defenseless—Just Like Dec 7, 1941 ( YouTube Video)

13 posted on 10/28/2008 12:15:28 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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To: Jmerzio

See the Strata Sphere Blog for some heavy analysis on why that may be a bunch of H***S**it,


14 posted on 10/28/2008 12:19:16 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Isn’t this just the pre bambi-infomercial set up so they can jack up the polls afterward for bambi and attribute it to his leg-tingling eargasmic nirvanic half hour speech?


15 posted on 10/28/2008 12:20:05 PM PDT by HerrBlucher
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Now then, will some enterprising reporter (maybe from Florida or Pennsylvania) ask Biden if he knew that in Obama’s autobiography (of dubious authorship) he states clearly that he sought out particular types of people to hang out withamong them were...”Marxist professors”...


16 posted on 10/28/2008 12:20:05 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

This is a three-day rolling average. The only way for McCain to have turned two consecutive days of 5-point Obama leads into a 2-point Obama lead is if YESTERDAY’S DATA HAD MCCAIN UP 4 POINTS!

((Obama+5) + (Obama+5) + (Obama-4))/3= Obama+2


17 posted on 10/28/2008 12:20:09 PM PDT by bw17
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

bttt


18 posted on 10/28/2008 12:20:12 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I watched the rally too in PA - his best speech to date - passionate and funny.


19 posted on 10/28/2008 12:20:22 PM PDT by DocT111
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

One of my favorite toys this season is the percentage of undecided McCain would need to get to 50.1% of the vote.

Based on these results, 47% McCain, 49% Obama, leaving 4% undecided, McCain would need 77.5% of the undecided to break his way. If as many say this is a referendum on Obama, those he has not sold by election day could all break McCain. [This number includes no effect of Obama getting few votes than he polls. That is another issue.]

Of course how this shakes out in the electoral college, I am not sure. Still the GOP has a built in advantage in the electoral college so getting to 50.1% [which my very rough estimate of 50% + 1 vote] might well get to 270 also.


20 posted on 10/28/2008 12:21:22 PM PDT by JLS (Do you really want change being two guys from the majority of Congress with a 9% approval rating?)
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To: gimme1ibertee; Tatze

I’m on my knees (no dirty jokes, men).

God help this country.


21 posted on 10/28/2008 12:21:24 PM PDT by hoe_cake (" 'We the people' tell the government what to do, it doesn't tell us." Ronald Reagan)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Who’d have thunk it, getting caught on tape saying you think the courts should ignore the constitution hurts you in the polls?

Fauxbama is done folks... keep fighting hard, but don’t think for one minute this fool is winning this thing.


22 posted on 10/28/2008 12:21:26 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: mainerforglobalwarming

I fully expect PA and FL to be called for Obi within 1/2 hour of the polls closing, with plenty of insinuation that he’s “already won it” long before that to discourage late voters.


23 posted on 10/28/2008 12:21:30 PM PDT by workerbee (If you vote for Democrats, you are engaging in UnAmerican Activity.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I can’t believe that Obama has even 2% of the people, let alone 2% LEAD!! Our country is lost.


24 posted on 10/28/2008 12:22:06 PM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion.....The Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Jmerzio

The “other model” relies on something like 40% turnout of the “youth vote”.


25 posted on 10/28/2008 12:22:13 PM PDT by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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To: mainerforglobalwarming
That would definitely cause Obama some cause for concern, but there have been at least 32 polls of Pennsylvania since the beginning of September, according to fivethirtyeight.com, and in only one of them was Obama not leading -- a 9/14 Rasmussen poll that had the two tied. McCain's going to need to pull off a political miracle to swing that state around in the next seven days........
26 posted on 10/28/2008 12:22:27 PM PDT by Devils Avocado
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

He was great. That is the style of speech he can deliver well. He needs to do it over and over again, and frankly do it at night to compete with O. Surely he can find 3 million for 3 night commercials. Just don’t do it before a sports event like O.


27 posted on 10/28/2008 12:23:39 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

LISTEN UP PEOPLE! Results from various states show that the monster youth, new voter, huge rat advantage IS PURE FICTION! This traditional turnout model is the real deal. MCCAIN/PALIN IS GOING TO WIN!


28 posted on 10/28/2008 12:23:43 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: what_not2007

2 Chronicles 7:14
14 Then if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves, if they will pray and seek me and stop their evil ways, I will hear them from heaven. I will forgive their sin, and I will heal their land.


29 posted on 10/28/2008 12:24:07 PM PDT by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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To: Perdogg; LS; RobRoy; Bushite; Norman Bates

fyi....gives one hope.


30 posted on 10/28/2008 12:24:33 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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To: Grunthor

Professor Hill from Temple Univ said on O’Reilly that if Obama isn’t up by 10 points on election day - he Will Lose!!! Let us pray!


31 posted on 10/28/2008 12:25:48 PM PDT by Froggie
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

DOW UP 600!!! Stock Market is unwinding the Obama crash positions! Yeah!


32 posted on 10/28/2008 12:25:53 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: workerbee

Does PA have two time zones like Florida?


33 posted on 10/28/2008 12:26:42 PM PDT by torchthemummy (Why Is The Educational Establishment Comfortable With Ayers' Unrepentent Radicalism (Terrorism)?)
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To: JLS

The election of 200 teacheds us that one can win the electoral with less than 50% in the popular vote.


34 posted on 10/28/2008 12:27:13 PM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

BUMP


35 posted on 10/28/2008 12:27:22 PM PDT by maine-iac7 ("He has the right to criticize who has the heart to help" Lincoln)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

...but IDB/TIPP today has Obama up 1 to +4. The polls are useless.


36 posted on 10/28/2008 12:28:00 PM PDT by pabianice (Inexplicable and infuriating.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
[WE can win this election....]

I still have faith that we can win too, Ernest. All we've heard in the past weeks are those FOR Obama, the media has run the show. I think conservatives have remained quiet. If Obama wins it will be mostly by fraud.

The quiet man with the moral core has yet to voice his opinion. But I'm still praying like mad, lol.

37 posted on 10/28/2008 12:28:08 PM PDT by potlatch
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To: Don'tMessWithTexas

200=2000, sorry. Oops.


38 posted on 10/28/2008 12:28:10 PM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
This is nice, but screw these 'national' polls.

If McCain wins

"PENNSYLVANIA"

he wins the ELECION. PERIOD!

"PENNSYLVANIA"

will be NOBAMA's "GETTYSBURG"

It's all about

"PENNSYLVANIA"


"PENNSYLVANIA"


"PENNSYLVANIA"



39 posted on 10/28/2008 12:29:22 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: Devils Avocado

Good point. It still is a hard climb.


40 posted on 10/28/2008 12:29:28 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Devils Avocado
I was just looking at the micro-polling thread in PA, it's only a 3 point race on paper right now. According to what I'm figuring by doing the math in my head. So I expect a McCain surge in Pa and nationally this week.
41 posted on 10/28/2008 12:29:46 PM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
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To: workerbee

Well, you’re right. Although they’ve already called it for obama if we’re being honest about things.


42 posted on 10/28/2008 12:30:54 PM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
They tried to damage McCain, but now their polls must reflect reality so they remain credible when the real election returns come in.

Plus if the Obama followers walk into the election with Obama well up, and he loses, then there WILL be riots.

43 posted on 10/28/2008 12:32:02 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 ("In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell)
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To: LibFreeUSA

“Go Nitally Lions!!”


44 posted on 10/28/2008 12:32:05 PM PDT by MozarkDawg
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To: LibFreeUSA

"PENNSYLVANIA"


45 posted on 10/28/2008 12:32:16 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Republicans spread freedom and democracy. Democrats spread sexually transmitted diseases.)
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To: mainerforglobalwarming
If conservatives get out and vote we’ll win. My great hope is that PA goes red early next tuesday. If that happens obama is done.

When they're only 3-4% apart, then the race will be won by whichever side motivates more of its people to show up on Nov 4.

46 posted on 10/28/2008 12:33:25 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 ("In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
The liberal polls must show a close race in order to drive voter turnout. Since the polls are there to drive public perception, not report it, it's imperitive that they do their part to get out the liberal vote. If they all believe The One is truly winning the public over by wide margins, many of them may not bother to vote.

The polls are simply one more tool used by the MSM to form and sway public opinion and behavior.

47 posted on 10/28/2008 12:33:33 PM PDT by TChris (So many useful idiots...)
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To: Devils Avocado
That would definitely cause Obama some cause for concern, but there have been at least 32 polls of Pennsylvania since the beginning of September, according to fivethirtyeight.com, and in only one of them was Obama not leading -- a 9/14 Rasmussen poll that had the two tied. McCain's going to need to pull off a political miracle to swing that state around in the next seven days........

When McCain wins PA you will know that the Silent Majority (don't have twenty bumper stickers to show how they care, don't bother to argue empirical facts with full-blown Democrat/Obama Moon Bats, less likely to partake in polls by biased sources that inflate Dem registration numbers, etc.) has returned.

By the way - welcome to Free Republic!

48 posted on 10/28/2008 12:33:50 PM PDT by torchthemummy (Why Is The Educational Establishment Comfortable With Ayers' Unrepentent Radicalism (Terrorism)?)
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To: Devils Avocado

What the heck, since FR is in vanitytown anyway, here’s my analysis of Pennsylvania that I posted on another thread.....

Here’s the thing. When it’s a straight D vs. R fight, Pennsylvania is REAL close. And it’s a microcosm of the country. The rural parts of the state go solid R, urban Philly & Pittsburgh go very heavily D. And actually, the Ds have been doing better lately in places like the Philly burbs, so Dems have had an advantage.

Basically the fight in Pennsylvania revolves, for a Republican, solidifying the rural base and picking up some suburban voters. For the Dem, it’s solidifying the urban base and picking up suburban voters. The last two Presidential elections have followed this model.

HOWEVER, and this is what many of the national people don’t quite get about Northeastern urban politics, when the race has racial overtones as this one obviously does, that throws the numbers WAY off, sometimes wildly. Urban Democrats are of two kinds—you got blacks, and you got ethnic, usually Union, whites. And we’ve seen time and again with mayoral elections that when a candidate is perceived as the “black” candidate, he *does not get* a huge chunk of white Democratic voters.

Case in point, how do you think Rudy Guiliani wins a mayoral election as a Republican against Dinkins in NYC? If you want a PA example, there’s the 1999 mayoral race between Sam Katz (R) and John Street (D) in Philly. Here’s a quote from Wikipedia on this race:

“Katz, running as a liberal to moderate Republican, ran on a platform of cutting the high wage taxes in the city and bringing back businesses which had fled. Street ran citing his support of the Rendell administration’s policies which many had felt rescued the city from a financial crisis. With a 75% voter registration advantage for the Democratic Party, Katz faced an uphill battle.
The race turned out to be racially divisive with Street holding 94% support of the African-American majority wards and Katz boasting support from about 80% of the white-majority wards. [10] Although both of the city’s major daily newspapers, the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News endorsed Katz’s candidacy, in the end, Street held on to a slight 7,200-vote majority on election day. [11]”

This is not Pennsylvania as a whole. This is JUST Philadelphia. So in a city with 75% Democrats, the Republican candidate only lost by 7200 votes. 80% of predominantly white wards went for the moderate Republican over the Democrat, even though, and I can’t confirm this but I suspect it’s the case—they were probably majority Democratic wards.
The implications for this election are enormous, if this same dynamic plays out.

Because what is suggests is that white ethnic Union Democrats may simply not vote for the candidate perceived as “the black candidate”. (And for those that don’t know, Street went into this election with some similiar black radical associations that Obama has—he was very much “the black candidate”).

If Obama cannot count on these white Democrats that Kerry got and Gore got, he is finished in Pennsylvania. He simply won’t have enough votes out of Philadelphia to counteract McCain’s advantage in the rural areas and the battleground suburbs.

Bottom line, yes places like Philadelphia usually go Democrat. But when race is a factor, even Philadelphia can’t be taken for granted as a Democratic stronghold. Hillary knew this. And this was the point she made over and over again-—Obama just can’t connect with traditional Democratic constituencies. This is what she meant.

If Obama can’t rely on Philadelphia, he can’t rely on Pittsburgh or Scranton which have (I think) higher proportions of these ethnic white Democrat voters than Philly. It’s impossible for him to win the state in that scenario.


49 posted on 10/28/2008 12:33:50 PM PDT by Claud
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Just heard on the radio that Alabama has reached the THREE million mark in voter registrations, a record. They are expecting 82-85% to show up on voting day. That would be an all time high. 79% was the highest in 1992. Last poll I heard last week was McCain at 64%!!!!

What continues to amaze me is that there are all these people who were never registered to vote before. Yes, you have young, first timers, but it seems funny at the numbers turning up.

50 posted on 10/28/2008 12:34:30 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (I am a true red, white and blue CONSERVATIVE! I HATE LIBERALS and Dimocrats!!!)
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