Skip to comments.Obama now on track for Electoral College majority
Posted on 10/29/2008 3:20:47 PM PDT by SmithL
Barack Obama has pulled ahead in enough states to win the 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House and with states to spare according to an Associated Press analysis that shows he is now moving beyond typical Democratic territory to challenge John McCain on historically GOP turf.
Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, he still seemingly won't have enough votes to prevail, according to the analysis, which is based on polls, the candidates' TV spending patterns and interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists. McCain does have a path to victory but it's a steep climb: He needs a sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him all six toss-up states plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.
Obama has 23 states and the District of Columbia, offering 286 votes, in his column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has 21 states with 163 votes. A half dozen offering 89 votes Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio remain up for grabs. President Bush won all six in 2004, and they are where the race is primarily being contested in the homestretch.
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
Ah yes, the “we’ve already won” ploy.......they never learn that democratic voters may stay hoe once it is “in the bag”.....happened last election, now they use the same tactic.....
So, according to the AP, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, and Pennsylvania are comfortably in The One’s corner and are not even up for grabs?
LOL Well, their premature announcement could work to our advantage. Think of how many Obama supporters will now just continue to party-hardy and not go vote because they’ve been told Obama has it all sewn up.
Gee whiz! I done went and wasted my vote?
Some of the early voting lines around Atlanta have had people in line for as much as 8 hours. Those people are gonna be awful mad when they find out the election is over.
We need more stories like this. I’m worried that with all the poll tightening talk that the RATS will become more determined to show up.
I fear that McCain will win the popular vote while losing the Electorial College.
Good ‘ole AP
AP...the home of Helen Thomas
And he won the primaries as well ... didn’t he?
Liz Sidotti, did google search on her, she does McCain bashing stories for the AP.
The APO has decided that instead of voting this year, they get to call the election by the polls. How nice.
By the way, AP — how far ahead was John Kerry supposedly at this time four years ago? HMMMM????
Obama has 23 states. McCain has 21. 6 are up for grabs. What about the other seven?
Well they can have PA, IA and NM, but they aint takin VA, NV or CO. Sorry, you can’t have em. No is no and I don’t mean maybe. I SAID NO YOU CAN’T HAVE THEM SORRY. Go back to your blue hell.
I hope we can shove this down their throats next wednesday.
I was reading with some concern unitl I got to the end and read about how Arizona was even a developing concern for McCain. What Bozos.
This is more bull. I am not going to read any more of this crap until the Obama post mortem on Nov. 5.
There will be a bit of a bump reported in the aftermath of Obama’s “speech” tonight, but then it will begin to unravel. Sensing the excess and desperation of it, even the MSM will be a little guarded in their enthusiasm. Obama will not be helping himself tonight-—though some will see it as a act of generosity to speak to us one more time, even while he’s got this thing in the bag.
More than just the content of his speech (where he will throw the old Obama under the bus, and present himself as a Centrist,) but more importantly, EVERY bit of content will provide pure fodder for how the McCain will hit him in the last five days. Especially the last 2 days, which would leave Obama no time to respond.
Make sure you ...
1) campaign and/or pray and/or donate
3) wear the gracious smile of a victor
Here are the under-reported reasons I have collected why McPalin will win from visiting FR way too much.
1) If you have not considered that Democratic Presidential campaigns would try to browbeat you into thinking that a Democrat win was inevitable, and that you should side with history, and vote with everyone, please read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117212/posts
1.85) According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2118129/posts, McCain is polling evenly in early voting exit polls in a county that has 28% more Democrats. Repeat: DEMOCRATS ARE VOTING McPALIN!!!
1.9) Oh yeah, the Joe the Plumber video isnt the only time Obama has let fly with his spread the wealth worldview. He blabbed about it profusely in 2001 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116921/posts
2) Polls that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY is Obama up 14 points!
3) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to. Notice Hillary has not gotten Berg to cut it out with his birth certificate lawsuit.
4) Hussein being Obamas middle name is still news to most people.
5) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
6) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org. Freeper lonestar67 says, Surveys have suggested that as many as 20-30% of Democrats may vote for McCain based on the rejection of Hillary. If even fractions of these claims are true, Obama would be hard pressed to win the election especially in key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.
7) [Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns], will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
8) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
9) The NRA has 8 figures of ads to unload in swing states
10) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
11) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
12) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it is racism. They see the tea leaves ...
13) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
14) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
15) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are http://thehill.com/dick-morris/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain-2008-10-28.htmlnimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
16) Obama has only 75% of the Jewish vote last I checked, just like Kerry (comfortable R win). Gore got 90% (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
17) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
18) McCain opened 50 offices in California. Its in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
19) Google Bradley Effect. Obama is getting poll votes hell never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
20) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
21) Obamas spread the wealth line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
22) The Enemedia overstating Obamas popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead. In fact, if I worked for the GOP, Id make sure free beer/music parties were being held outside of every major blue city before/on election day. Theyre called raves.
23) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
24) The Obama crew already knows theyre going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
25) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you dont think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
26) Freeper lonestar67 says, ... the misogynist treatment of Palin by the media elite has provided additional elements to the coming silent backlash especially among women.
27) Three people over 50 (white male and two Mexican women), on two occasions, on October 25th, asked me if I know about Obama not being a citizen. My Dad knows, and he emailed all his friends also. Point being, EVERYBODY KNOWS that Obama aint benevolently and humbly forthcoming with his birth certificate, and thus something fishy is afoot in Camelot.
28) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it. Get your news here! Stop torturing yourself! We bring the liberal media lies here, and we dissect them through the lenses of Christianity and Conservatism.
Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
Hey Obama supporters!! Taxes kill businesses, kill jobs, and kill people.
Damn, I wish I’d known this before I went to vote last weekend in Albuquerque. I guess I just wasted my time /sarc
Don’t the dems want to get rid of the electoral college...or as one woman said in 2000, electical college. If they do maybe we can make it retro active.
Everyone remember them calling Florida early? Go out and vote and make sure everyone you know does, too.