Skip to comments.Duration of Advertising Effects in 2000 Presidential Campaign (maybe why polls bounce around)
Posted on 10/30/2008 7:16:41 PM PDT by gusopol3
Consistent with the Johnston et al. account of Bushs late surge in battleground states, we find advertising effects that are both fairly large in magnitude and short-lived. As in some other studies, we also find that low to middle information voters are most susceptible to these persuasion effects. In combination with other recent studies, our findings of short, sharp advertising effects must be taken seriously.
The decay effects uncovered by Gerber et al. are much more rapid than any previous scholar had assumed -- so much more rapid as to raise the question of how previous research has been able to find advertising effects with the longer lags it has used.
(Excerpt) Read more at allacademic.com ...
Now , the question is, is there collusion by at least some of the polling organizations to poll heavily in areas where there are big Obama ad buys? There was a hint of some kind of media collusion, IMHO, at the end of the series game last night . The local FOX station (I don't know if the ads were locally broadcast or nationally) had a McCain commercial with the voice of Joe Biden "mark my words....blah blah blah." Within the same commercial break, there was an Obama ad on, I admit not having listened super attentively, but something about "selective " quotes, the voice of Biden "steel up his spine." Now how does that happen? Somebody had to have leaked the McCain ad to Obama.
It could well be that Obama has squandered more money per vote than any politician in history, save Mitt Romney. It might well go down as the most ineffective, most wasteful campaign ever.
yes, this time, I’m really not feeling down about the polls.
This strategy is brilliant. Wednesday morning will tell if it paid off.
This study is opionated garbage with no statistical rigor.
My contention is that late ads are useless. 95% or more have made up their minds and only hit the mute button when an opponents ad comes up.
If this is accurate, the correct strategy with limited resources is to keep most of your powder dry until about 72 hours before the election, which is exactly what the McCain campaign has done.