Does Weather Favor Dems or GOP?

Accuweather ^ | 10/31/08

[truthandlife]

If history is a barometer, then the nice weather in most of the country on Election Day could spell victory for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet, when voters head to the polls on Tuesday, "There will be nothing out of the ordinary in the weather to impact voter turnout."

There will be rain and cool air in the battleground state of Florida and along the Southeast coast on Tuesday. Kocet says a small low pressure area currently moving through the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday will draw moisture from the Atlantic into the Southeast.

Voter turnout in Florida is being closely monitored this year. Huge lines in Florida for early voting led Gov. Charlie Crist to issue an executive order extending early voting hours statewide from eight hours a day to twelve.

A storm system over the Northwest on Tuesday will result in rain and snow showers across the Pacific Northwest and the Intermountain West. However, it will likely not deter most voters.

A weak disturbance moving out of Canada's Prairies will bring showers to the Upper Midwest, while warm air from the southern Plains spreads unseasonable warmth across the rest of the Plains and the Midwest.

Those heading to the polls in the all-important Northeast will have no weather issues as they exercise their civic duty, with high pressure producing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

It comes as no surprise that voters in Alaska will have to brave the cold to cast their votes. Temperatures will remain below freezing throughout the day with single-digit readings across the interior.

Over the course of history, the relationship between the weather on Election Day, and the results have been analyzed and dissected by political strategists, pollsters, pundits and, of course, members of the media. Is the relationship between the weather and voter behavior fact, fiction or a mix of both?

The 2000 election hinged on the controversial results in Florida, and rain on that fateful day may have played a role.

According to at least one electoral weather study, better weather eight years ago could have given the state to Democrat Al Gore.

Republicans may be praying for bad weather on Tuesday, even though the gap between John McCain and Barack Obama appears to be closing. RealClearPolitics.com reports today that the polls put Obama ahead by anywhere from 3 points to 15 points over his GOP rival.

The common belief is that bad weather hurts Democrats, because more Democrats live in cities and either walk or take public transit to polling stations. A rainy or snowy election day could discourage many Democrat voters from standing in long lines at busy urban polling places.

There may be some truth to the theory. In 2005, a team of political scientists led by Professor Brad Gomez of the University of Georgia completed a ground-breaking study titled "The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," published in the June 2007 issue of the Journal of Politics.

Despite the tongue-in-cheek title, the study found the weather "may have contributed to two Electoral College outcomes, the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections," and "poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party's vote share."

The research team analyzed the impact of the weather on voter turnout in 14 U.S. presidential elections and concluded that rain reduced voter turnout by a rate of just under 1 percent per inch, while voter turnout dropped by almost one-half of one percent for each inch of snow.

The study concluded that had it not been a bright and sunny day in Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey on Nov. 8, 1960, Richard Nixon would likely have defeated John F. Kennedy to become the 35th President of the United States.

[truthandlife]

Remember who controls the weather? If you don't, see my tagline.

[DAC21]

Depends if the buses can get through the storm

[wideawake]

You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

[MrB]

No tagline = no one controls the weather?

I’d say bad weather would suppress Dem turnout more than GOP turnout, because they aren’t used to doing anything hard.

God’s hand is at work in these elections, just keep praying.

[truthandlife]

Weather forecast for Tuesday as 10/31
http://climate.weather.com/promo/election/2008/battleground-states.html

Ohio (20 electoral votes)

2004 vote: Bush-R (50.8 pct) 2,858,727; Kerry-D (48.7 pct) 2,739,952
Recent Polls: Obama 51 pct, McCain 47 pct - CNN/Time (thru Tuesday)

Cincinnati
weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 72 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph)

Cleveland
weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 66 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (8 mph)

Columbus
weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 71 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (6 mph)

Florida (27 electoral votes)

2004 vote: Bush-R (52.1 pct) 3,964,522; Kerry-D (47.1) 3,583,544
Recent Polls: Obama 51 pct, McCain 47 pct - CNN/Time (thru Tuesday)

Jacksonville
weather.com forecast: Showers (40 pct chance of precipitation), high of 71 degrees, windy (14 mph)

Miami
weather.com forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 82 degrees, (10 pct chance of precipitation), mild winds (8 mph)

Tampa
weather.com forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 81 degrees (20 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph)

Missouri (11 electoral votes)

2004 vote: Bush-R (53.3 pct) 1,455,713; Kerry-D (46.1 pct) 1,259,171
Recent Polls: McCain 50 pct, Obama 47 pct - Politico/InsiderAdvantage (thru Wednesday)

Kansas City
weather.com forecast: Isolated thunderstorms, (30 pct chance of precipitation), high of 70 degrees, windy (17 mph)

St. Louis
weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 71 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), mild winds (12 mph)

Springfield
weather.com forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 72 degrees (20 pct chance of precipitation), windy (17 mph)

Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)

2004 vote: Kerry-D (50.9 pct) 2,938,095; Bush-R (2,793,847
Recent Polls: Obama 54 pct, McCain 41 pct - Muhlenberg Coll/Morning Call (thru Wednesday)

Philadelphia
weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 65 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (5 mph)

Pittsburgh
weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 66 degees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight wind (5 mph)

Allentown
weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 63 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight wind (4 mph)

[buccaneer81]

Supposed to be sunny and near 70 here in Columbus. Big difference from four years ago when temps were around 40 with pouring rain.

[Sig Sauer P220]

Bad weather favors Republicans. Its all about motivation.

[goldstategop]

They're getting desperate. I thought the election was in the bag? Now they're talking UP the weather? (laughing)

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[AZLiberty]

If Bush was really supporting McCain, he would have caused bad weather, perhaps even a hurricane.

Sheesh! If the fate of our Republic depends on the weather on voting day, we are in sorry shape.

[Saab-driving Yuppie]

I've been following this my whole voting life. Really bad weather tends to hamper the dominant party in a given area. I am talking rain/snow all day. 70 and sunny isn't going to bring more turnout than 50 and cloudy. A bad morning won't mean much. However, most bad weather patterns affect both Republican and Democrat areas at the same time.

I am sure that if somehow the weather was much worse in Cleveland than in the rest of the state, it would be good for Ohio's chances for Bush. Likewise, if it was bad down here and good up there, it would be good for the Dems.

Put another way: bad weather in your town isn't going to make your Dem neighbor less likely to vote than your it will for your Republican neighbbor.

[Tanniker Smith]

Good weather favors Dems because the Republicans are going to come up hell or highwater and vote.

[According2RecentPollsAirIsGood]

I firmly believe that on Nov. 4, Krazy Karl’s New and Improved Weather Controlling Voter Suppression Machine will send a hurricane and flood to every house in the country with an Obama sign out front.

[skully]

So now we're down to using the weather forecast to predict the winner. Probably more accurate then the polls...FWIW my reading of chicken guts says Bob Barr will win.

[OCC]

It’s supposed to be sunny and above normal temps here in Cincinnati. In 2004 it was pouring rain and cold all day. That being said, I think most Rats that would be discouraged by bad weather have already taken advantage of early voting anyway.

On another note, I heard two of our clients (GM and Delphi)are giving workers Tuesday off to encourage voting. Must be a union contract thingy.

[j.havenfarm]

It’s a little more complicated than that. According to the scientifia concensus:

First, the stupid are a key Democrat constituency. Many become disoriented in the rain adn cannot find the polls. Tragically, quite a number have drowned while gaping upward at the strange phenomenon.

Second, many Democrats who usually roll out of bed by the crack of noon become confused by the lack of bright light coming through the window, and go back to sleep until it is too late to vote.

I’m hoping to get a government grant to study the matter further.

[Calif4Bush]

This McCain/Palin voters will walk through whatever weathere there is to see a GREAT team win!!

We will win this!

[hellbender]

We do know that the Weather Underground is huffing and puffing for 0bama.

[batmast]

Almighty and most merciful Father, we humbly beseech Thee, of Thy great goodness,
to restrain these immoderate rains with which we have had to contend.
Grant us fair weather for Battle.
Graciously hearken to us as soldiers who call upon Thee that,
armed with Thy power, we may advance from victory to victory,
and crush the oppression and wickedness of our enemies
and establish Thy justice among men and nations.
-by Msgr. James H. O’Neill12/8/1944 (the Chief Chaplain of the Third Army throughout the five campaigns on the Staff of General Patton)
http://www.pattonhq.com/prayer.html

[MrB]

I’m betting that giving them the day off has the opposite effect of what they’re intending.

Why not drink a two-four the night before if you don’t have to work the next day?

[OCC]

I’m thinking you are probably right!