Skip to comments.IBD/TIPP 11/2/08: O: 46.7; M: 44.6; U: 8.7
Posted on 11/02/2008 9:24:06 AM PST by freespirited
The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
He simply must win Ohio and Pennsylvania.
47% is what I think Obama tops out at.
Very good news, indeed. It’s interesting that yesterday the IBD analysis suggested that Halloween may have skewed the results against McCain. McCain must have had a very good day on Saturday.
The difference in the numbers are interesting for those who have no religion and fly no flag.
It’s like a little snapshot of “us” and “them”.
Picking up more Catholics too!!
What’s stunning is that 78% of Jewish voters are voting to exterminate Israel.
Two points with 9% undecided?!?!?!? Obama is toast!
You are probably right, Pennsylvania is a large chunk of gold that makes up for a bunch of tenuous battleground states. Somebody brought up a good point in another thread, the first results will be Indiana at 6:30 PM, if McCain wins by more than 5 points it means the polls are off and it should be a good night for McCain.
I’ll be looking at the exit polls on Drudge in the afternoon, they won’t be accurate but if they show McCain within 3 or leading in any state, probably means he won that state.
I really think McCain should do 5 minutes on every network Monday Night to give his final argument.
Good luck all.
Mark Levins pep talk to fire up the base: http://citadelcc.vo.llnwd.net/o29/network/Levin/MP3/levin10282008.mp3
Huge disappointment to me. I had been hoping to see it around 60%. IMO the press attack on Sarah had a lot to do with the failure to keep the number down.
Cathlics better move to the GOP. Read the Catholic doctrine or find a new religion Catholics. Obama is wrong for Catholics. Wake up!
Hold VA and your options are vastly greater
There were go. This looks like reality. Undecided keeping their mouths shut because Obama thugs are dangerous. God bless William O’Neil at Investors Business Daily for running a wonderful paper and for doing honest polling.
ANY poll showing Obama above 47 to 48% is garbage - GARBAGE. They have no idea and they are guessing. Their metholdogy is JUNK. They have no idea about PUMAs.
It flies in the face of every election going back to LBJ. LBJ was the only Dem to get a lot above 50% because Goldwater, although very conservative, was not mainstream.
LBJ, while a loathesome corrupt man and a liberal, was viewed as safe and coservative by most of America especially the south. I mean geez louise - Ford almost beat Carter.
There is no way Obama gets anywhere near 50% - “it ain’t” gonna happen.
Dick Morris said that if Obama is not at 49 percent on election day, he’s not going to win. He arrives at this number calculating the “Bradley Affect” and any votes Nader may siphon off. Some may disagree but I happen to think Morris is a shrewd guy.
I saw a poll the other day that asked respondents if they would be likely to participate in an exit poll. Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say yes by about 10 percentage points.
If this is true, seems to me this could be a source of bias in the results.
Halloween polling would hurt McCain because Repubs are with their kids going to Halloween parties or trick or treating. The pollsters call around 6 to 8 pm and you are not getting Repubs.
Other Repubs are still working to pay lots of taxes so that Obama supporter in FL gets free money for gas for her car and her mortgage. ;-)
Was this poll just released?
I agree with Morris...and even more troubling for Obama and great for McCain is this incredibly large amount of Undecided voters! We will win this election....and Obamas team has got to be running scared now!!
Great!!!! It was BO by 4.5 yesterday.
I guess it was just released. I picked up the link on drudge.
They are voting to exterminate themselves ultimately. Israel and the USA are the Jews last refuge on earth. The EU has spent the last ten years turning Europe into a place where the few Jews that Hitler missed are unwelcome and unsafe.
Obama will do everything he can to ensure Israel's destruction. When Israel dies every other Jewish person on earth becomes a walking corpse. It will be only a matter of time till the anti-Semites get them too. Here. Anywhere. It wont matter.
I'm not Jewish but I'd rather be dead than live in a world without my Jewish brothers. Please American Jews- Wake up!!!
This morning I got another call from dumbfounded Democrats who still see our family’s names — AND past financial support — on their voter lists and I told them my honest opinion.
The guy kept questioning where I had heard such and such as though it was his first inclining!
That’s funny, considering how Levine so foolishly worked depress the base after McCain won the primary. The trio of idiots’ (Limbaugh, Coulter, and Levine) chickens are about to come home to roost. I’m sure that they can afford the shitstorm to come. Folks like me with fewer resources are going to have it rough, partially thanks to their childish arrogance a few months back.
Dick Morris has been a good GOP advocate this election. I agree with him, undecideds are breaking for Mac.
Remember, the Independents and especially the Undecideds are the LEAST likely to do early voting.
Last night I talked to a young Colorado Independent who was leaning Obama.....his parents have a small business. He is now leaning McCain.
George Snuffaluffagus on ABC was claiming there are only 2 % undecided and it is basically over. They act like the only polls that exist have Obama up by a gazillion.
The bishops in most of the USA have said Obama is totally unacceptable. I have never seen them so insistent. Obama will not win New Mexico. I know people who know hard core Dem part machine operatives who can deliver the Mexican American vote in the state. These people have been at it for decades and their families have probably lived in NM for 300 years. They are working for McCain this year. They know Richardson.
People are saying Richardson will deliver NM for Obama. Only problem is Richardson is up against a more powerful force which he will not cross - the Catholic Church. These people take their faith very seiously and the Bishop has told the faithful - do not even think about it.
The Church has good intelligence on Obama and his trips to Pakistan and the trouble he is causing in Kenya for Christians. Obama is a Muslim. Devout hispanic Catholics in the SW think he is the anti christ. This is no joke.
The bishops in PA are telling the faithful the same thing. The church is very careful not to meddle too much in elections. This year with Obama it is different.
Let’s hope the audio of Obama wanting to bankrupt the coal miners will seal the deal in PA for Mccain
The Bradley Effect is starting to kick in!
Remember that McCain has a history of being a strong closer.....
he was totally pumped this morning and hammering Obama while keeping that smile, a Reaganesque (well nobody compares, but you know what I mean) mixture of hammering the enemy while still being positive, optimistic and full of energy. This is not Bob Dole.
I’ve never been able to understand why the Jewish vote goes to Dems?
At this moment, Intrade has McCain at a 12.5 percent chance of winning on Tuesday.
Be very wary of exit polls on Tuesday. The MSM lib media will have some trick for us on Tuesday. Phony exit polls, calling states early, faiiling to call states after a Repub had already won. Did freeping Dan Rather ever call Ohio for Bush? I think after 4 years he still did not.
Be prepared. They will feed us some lie to depress our vote.
Be wary of Obama/ACORN/Axelrod manipulation.
Donate, volunteer and GOTV. Vote.
The last time a majority of Jews voted for a Republican was Teddy Roosevelt.
The Irish also used to vote straight Democratic even during the Civil War, but they moved away from the Crats about 40 years ago.
What do you mean?
As I posted on another thread, the McCain campaign did an unforgivably poor job of organizing the Jewish vote. For the 1st time since Reagan, this was here for the taking. They also had an unbelievable weapon in Joe Lieberman and even the up and coming Eric Cantor. Joe’s been much less visible in the Jewish circles than I had anticipated he would be and Eric’s been completely invisible. With Nobama’s associations, pro-Palestinian stances in the past, stance against the Iraq war (don’t forget that Saddam was paying $25K for Palestinian to blow up Jewish women and children!), and - in his only vote in which he could profess any stance in the region - vote against labelling the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization, McCain could have aggressively and accurately branded him as no “friend of Israel”. However, the response was disorganized and tepid, thus allowing Nobama to recast himself as a lifelong “staunch supporter of Israel”. After enough repitition - without effective countering - this canard became accepted fact. Even with covert or overt endorsements from Hamas, Hezbollah, Khaddafi, and Iran, McCain did not even effectively bother to drive home the truth.
Not effectively defining Nobama as existentially dangerous for Israel enabled the typical uber-liberal social issues that appeal (unfortunately) to the majority of American Jews to define their view of Nobama. Hopefully, this piece of rank political malpractice on the part of McCain’s campaign advisers won’t come back to haunt him (and us!).
The beauty part is not just the 2.1 percent differnce, it’s that Obama is falling. He’s under 47%, with a big undercided number left, 8.7%!
McCain needs 2/3 of the remaining undecideds to top 50% and win the popular vote (and likely the electorial college), and he’ll get more than that. Very few of those who have resisting the saturation Obama-fest for 2 years, are going to decide vote for him at this late date.
So Soros is manipulating that market too?
RCP used to have a link to all the UK books on one site. the bookies were right on Bush in 2004 and the odds went all over the place when the phony exit polls came out.
Ohio yes, PA no.
It would be the cherry on top to win PA, but McCain doesn’t NEED it.
All he has to do is hold on to the red states of FL, NC, VA, CO, and NV.
Sounds tough, but not really.
Especially considering VA hasn’t been dem in decades, and I doubt a hard left winger with radical beliefs and friends will turn it blue this time.
Demos don’t shift that dramtically in four years from when Bush won.
THIS POLL IS ENCOURAGING!!
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