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New Pew Poll: 052%, M46% [From 053%, M38% less than one week ago]
Pew ^

Posted on 11/02/2008 1:51:03 PM PST by Chet 99

November 2, 2008

Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days McCain Narrows Gap

Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.

(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; antichrist; conspiracy; electionpresident; mccain; obama; pew
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1 posted on 11/02/2008 1:51:03 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

PEW is a bullsh*t poll if there ever was one. And there are.


2 posted on 11/02/2008 1:52:16 PM PST by SMCC1
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To: SMCC1

The PEW poll stinks to low hell.


3 posted on 11/02/2008 1:53:08 PM PST by HerrBlucher
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To: SMCC1

The PEW poll? Actually, the name says it all.


4 posted on 11/02/2008 1:54:27 PM PST by Oldpuppymax (AGENDA OF THE LEFT EXPOSED)
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To: Perdogg; DesertRhino; Frantzie; GOP_Lady; HamiltonJay; impeachedrapist; IndependentWahoo; ...

A 9% swing in less than a week. What a joke this polling outfit is. People don’t change their minds like that. They also project undecideds to break evenly. Right.


5 posted on 11/02/2008 1:54:52 PM PST by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: Chet 99

pew........pew.....pew....

stinks to high heaven.


6 posted on 11/02/2008 1:54:59 PM PST by Vaquero ("an armed society is a polite society" Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: Chet 99
Zogby and Pew don't deserve my attention any more.

Rasmussen, although I think he oversamples Dems, has been holding much more steady.

7 posted on 11/02/2008 1:55:02 PM PST by careyb
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To: Chet 99

I’ve attended more than a few dinners at my mother-in-law’s place with two bigshots from Pew. The hatred of everything conservative and Republican oozing from those two is amazing. Pew makes the NYT look unbased and fair.


8 posted on 11/02/2008 1:55:03 PM PST by Cementjungle
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To: Chet 99

Too much movement in that poll to give it any credibility.


9 posted on 11/02/2008 1:55:15 PM PST by mainepatsfan
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To: Chet 99

I know it’s a gap, but nevertheless, I said two weeks ago that late last week ALL of these pollsters would have to get their numbers in line for the final. Evidently, Gallup decided to believer their own crap, but when PEW moves this fast this far, it tells us something is afoot.


10 posted on 11/02/2008 1:55:22 PM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: Chet 99

Yeah, McCain “gained” 9 points in one week! Whatever Senor Pew!

a) McCain was never behind
b) Pew should just buy a condo in Libya and retire there


11 posted on 11/02/2008 1:55:28 PM PST by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Oldpuppymax

Just about anywhere you look, even in the “cooked” polls McCain has been surging for well over a week.

There is no stopping a glacier, or a landslide.


12 posted on 11/02/2008 1:55:49 PM PST by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: Chet 99

The Madeline Albright pollsters want a little credibility.


13 posted on 11/02/2008 1:56:06 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Chet 99

These little pissants at PEW never cease to amaze. Still trying to dissuade conservatives from voting, yet throwing us a “bone” by shifting the numbers in order to make themselves look more credible.

The only reason these guys stay in business is people’s short attention spans and memory loss. And because it gives Dem a—holes something to be happy about. False hopes-but they’ll take it.


14 posted on 11/02/2008 1:57:21 PM PST by albie
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To: Chet 99

HAHA

They got their 20% margin just in time to skew “poll of poll” averages. Pew is useless

Ignore the Polls

Pray and Work for it!


15 posted on 11/02/2008 1:57:56 PM PST by wiseprince
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To: Chet 99

Here are the “internals” for party affiliation:

Democrat - 38%
Independent - 28%
Republican - 28%

If Republicans turn out in numbers similar to the 2004 and 2006 elections (same or about 2% less than Democrats), this election is very, very close!

Based on what I’ve been seeing, I fully expect Republicans to turn out in massive numbers.

Tuesday should be interesting!

-Bob


16 posted on 11/02/2008 1:57:57 PM PST by rwilliam
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To: Chet 99

Is Pew included in the RCP average?


17 posted on 11/02/2008 1:59:38 PM PST by babydubya1981 (Homeschooling Moms for McCain/Palin 08)
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To: Chet 99

Mac must be winning if even Pew, with their nonsensical methodology, has him within six.


18 posted on 11/02/2008 1:59:43 PM PST by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Nihil utile nisi quod honestum - Marcus Tullius Cicero)
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To: rwilliam

If the party turnout is within the range it’s been since 1980, this poll says we win.


19 posted on 11/02/2008 2:00:38 PM PST by tatown
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To: Chet 99

“More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.”


20 posted on 11/02/2008 2:00:55 PM PST by Unkosified (What do Osama and Obama have in common? They both have friends that bombed the Pentagon.)
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To: Chet 99
Cavuto just said McCain leads among likely voters in this poll!! Anyone else hear that?
21 posted on 11/02/2008 2:01:01 PM PST by Mitt Romney (Text "SLATE WRIGHT" to 98999 to get a Reverend Wright ringtone)
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To: Chet 99

everyone knows that Obama is the hip canidate, I do not believe these people are undecided I beleive they will break big to McCain they jut do not want to say they are for McCain, and that is not the bradley effect, if the bradley effect is also a factor some of those that say they are for obama are really not, I have read elsewhere (which may or may not be a rumor) that more than half, I think it was 80%, of the people contacted to be polled did not want to be polled that could also be skewing the numbers for obama because I believe that mccain supporters would be less likely to participate in a poll by the MSM, IMHO


22 posted on 11/02/2008 2:02:44 PM PST by edzo4 (Vote McCain, Keep Your Change)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

yet Obama doesn’t lose any support?

What a wacky poll. Mccain gains but Obama stays the same.


23 posted on 11/02/2008 2:03:26 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Mitt Romney

I did!

So what it is the 52-46, registered voters?


24 posted on 11/02/2008 2:03:43 PM PST by babydubya1981 (Homeschooling Moms for McCain/Palin 08)
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To: Mitt Romney

Obama will soon be joining Gore, Carter, Kerry for a quartet of losers.


25 posted on 11/02/2008 2:04:24 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: kesg

PING

McCain cut Obama’s lead by 9-points within a week. McCain now down 6-points with a +10 dem party weighting.


26 posted on 11/02/2008 2:04:43 PM PST by tatown
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To: rwfromkansas; All

Interesting the poll says mcCain leads by 1 for those planning to vote on election day, but Obama leads by quite a big for those who already have voted.

Could be some good news for us with this strong bias in the poll.

However, I hope this is wrong:

“Significantly, Obama matches McCain or holds a narrow advantage among key swing voter groups that have voted Republican, or been evenly divided, in recent presidential elections. Aside from Obama’s six-point edge among independents (45%-39%), he is nearly even with McCain among white non-Hispanic Catholics (47% McCain, 45% Obama), suburban voters (47%-43%), and white women (47%-44%). For detailed demographic tables see complete report PDF.

Notably, a much greater share of Obama supporters continue to say they are supporting him strongly, compared with McCain supporters. Among likely voters, 36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately. Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately. In most recent elections where there has been an imbalance in intensity of support, the candidate with the greater share of strong support has gone on to victory. “

The enthusiasm gap is a major problem if it truly is this big.


27 posted on 11/02/2008 2:12:16 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

Simply reverse those numbers and you will be pretty close to the final numbers on election day.


28 posted on 11/02/2008 2:13:21 PM PST by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: rwfromkansas

You’re reading too much into a poll that had 0bama up 15 points just a few days ago. They’re a joke.


29 posted on 11/02/2008 2:14:28 PM PST by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: tatown

+10 Dems? I did not see that. Very interesting. Gives me hope this can still be won. Though it is discouraging to see just about every pundit and analyst (even Republicans) say 0bama will get well over 300 electoral votes. Fred Barnes and Bill Kristol are about the only exceptions.


30 posted on 11/02/2008 2:15:50 PM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: albie

“These little pissants at PEW never cease to amaze. Still trying to dissuade conservatives from voting,...”

That’s the strategy...dissuade conservatives and Republicans from voting by the constant hammering that Obama is a head. The mantra for the 2000 election was that there was no difference between Bush and Gore so don’t cast your vote for President, leave it blank...funny how when they did the recount they automatically assumed that a person who left out a vote for President was voting for Gore. GET OUT AND VOTE...NO WAY, NO HOW, NOBAMA!


31 posted on 11/02/2008 2:17:59 PM PST by LottieDah (If only those who speak so eloquently on the rights of animals would do so on behalf of the unborn.)
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To: TNCMAXQ

I don’t know what true republicans are saying that but anyone who believes that is either lying or mis-informed.


32 posted on 11/02/2008 2:18:05 PM PST by tatown
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To: rwfromkansas
“The enthusiasm gap is a major problem if it truly is this big.”

There is no way they can gadge the enthusiasm going on in every middle America suburb, peace keeping, conservative, God loving citizen...no way. The enthusiasm is more than high it is off the charts...and what is driving it is this radical, too far liberal Obama. That is and will get the Evangelicals out of the house in numbers no one has ever seen. It's gonna happen and we will win.

33 posted on 11/02/2008 2:23:01 PM PST by IndianPrincessOK (McCain/Palin...2 pit bulls, one with lipstick! Pigs will fly with lipstick Nov. 4th)
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To: Cementjungle

Were you able to eat? I think one dinner like that would be more than I could stand.


34 posted on 11/02/2008 2:25:18 PM PST by RipSawyer (What's black and white and red all over? Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: rwfromkansas
Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately.

The piece that you are missing, is that these same people are incredibly motivated to vote for Sarah Palin.
35 posted on 11/02/2008 2:25:27 PM PST by horse_doc
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To: Chet 99

I hear this poll has McCain ahead by one with likely voters?


36 posted on 11/02/2008 2:25:37 PM PST by CSI007
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To: CSI007

Among people voting on election day. Does not count early voters.


37 posted on 11/02/2008 2:27:11 PM PST by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: CSI007

They say McCain is up one point over Obama with voters who will vote on Tuesday. That McCain will lose with all votes counted.

I think their last week’s poll was bogus, and I think this one is fishy too. They are just trying to grab headlines.


38 posted on 11/02/2008 2:27:39 PM PST by WilliamReading
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To: Chet 99

they say it’s all momentum at the end.


39 posted on 11/02/2008 2:27:54 PM PST by gusopol3
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To: Chet 99

Nothing has changed other than the Rs they counted in the poll.

Pray for McCuda and Our Troops


40 posted on 11/02/2008 2:29:13 PM PST by bray (Rezko = Obama)
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To: horse_doc

good point. also we have the fear of Obama going on that was pointed out in an article today. Some people in Virginia were quoted as being frightened of Obama, and they were listed as undecided.


41 posted on 11/02/2008 2:36:35 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Chet 99

“A 9% swing in less than a week”

And Bambi picked up a point to 53% as well.


42 posted on 11/02/2008 2:41:59 PM PST by DAC21
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To: rwfromkansas

The problem is that the if you ask 10% more democrats than republicans that question, you will definitely get that gap


43 posted on 11/02/2008 2:43:58 PM PST by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
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To: DAC21

They had Obama up by 15.

You could have held this election on the best day Obama ever had and he would NEVER come close to winning by 15, you could try it a million times, it would never happen, pure propaganda.

The Obama-Titanic is sinking like a rock.


44 posted on 11/02/2008 2:44:12 PM PST by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: rwfromkansas
36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately. Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately.

The pollsters knew that big part of conservatives will vote for McCain/Palin because of Sarah Palin, not because of McCain. So, when people were asked about their support to candidates, and only mentioned McCain or 0bama, those are the numbers we got. Technically, they're right as the two are the presidential candidates. However, practically, it's an incomplete descriptions of what really is going on.

45 posted on 11/02/2008 2:44:58 PM PST by paudio (Nobody cried racism when Ken Blackwell, Lynn Swann, and Michael Steele lost to White guys...)
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To: paudio

I remember stumbling upon a lefty site yesterday saying they needed a desperately big number of volunteers because they were struggling to reach voters etc. That is pretty telling.


46 posted on 11/02/2008 2:51:24 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas

The DUers have been complaining about a huge “flake rate” - people who promised to volunteer, but never showed up, no call, nothing. I heard (seriously) that several very popular video games were just released, so I guess all those dedicated Obama yut found something better to do with their time.


47 posted on 11/02/2008 2:54:46 PM PST by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: Chet 99

If anyone is still reading this thread, the real news is that even in the Obama-biased Pew poll, OBAMA IS UNDER 50%.

Click the link and look at the chart. The actual results among those likely voters who have decided is:

Obama 49, McCain 42, Minor candidates 2, leaving 7% undecided.

Pew arrived at the 52 v. 46 figure by an arbitrary guess allocating 4 to McCain and 3 to Obama.

But the point is: If even this Obama-biased poll has Obama uder 50%, there’s real grounds for hope here.


48 posted on 11/02/2008 3:00:40 PM PST by BCrago66
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To: rwilliam

Where did you find this information for party ID? Thanks.


49 posted on 11/02/2008 3:06:39 PM PST by kesg
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To: Chet 99

I am a bit concerned about a reverse bradley effect, where obama overperformed bigtime in some states, like NC.

He whooped up on Clinton there when polls showed it much closer.

Then we have other states like we have (PA, OH) where it went our way. Obama lost support to Clinton much worse than the polls showed.

So, who knows.

But, in states like NC, that is worrisome. I just hope any potential ‘reverse’ will be outweighed by high voter turnout overall.


50 posted on 11/02/2008 3:11:17 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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