Skip to comments.New Pew Poll: 052%, M46% [From 053%, M38% less than one week ago]
Posted on 11/02/2008 1:51:03 PM PST by Chet 99
November 2, 2008
Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days McCain Narrows Gap
Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Centers final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...
PEW is a bullsh*t poll if there ever was one. And there are.
The PEW poll stinks to low hell.
The PEW poll? Actually, the name says it all.
A 9% swing in less than a week. What a joke this polling outfit is. People don’t change their minds like that. They also project undecideds to break evenly. Right.
stinks to high heaven.
Rasmussen, although I think he oversamples Dems, has been holding much more steady.
I’ve attended more than a few dinners at my mother-in-law’s place with two bigshots from Pew. The hatred of everything conservative and Republican oozing from those two is amazing. Pew makes the NYT look unbased and fair.
Too much movement in that poll to give it any credibility.
I know it’s a gap, but nevertheless, I said two weeks ago that late last week ALL of these pollsters would have to get their numbers in line for the final. Evidently, Gallup decided to believer their own crap, but when PEW moves this fast this far, it tells us something is afoot.
Yeah, McCain “gained” 9 points in one week! Whatever Senor Pew!
a) McCain was never behind
b) Pew should just buy a condo in Libya and retire there
Just about anywhere you look, even in the “cooked” polls McCain has been surging for well over a week.
There is no stopping a glacier, or a landslide.
The Madeline Albright pollsters want a little credibility.
These little pissants at PEW never cease to amaze. Still trying to dissuade conservatives from voting, yet throwing us a “bone” by shifting the numbers in order to make themselves look more credible.
The only reason these guys stay in business is people’s short attention spans and memory loss. And because it gives Dem a—holes something to be happy about. False hopes-but they’ll take it.
They got their 20% margin just in time to skew “poll of poll” averages. Pew is useless
Ignore the Polls
Pray and Work for it!
Here are the “internals” for party affiliation:
Democrat - 38%
Independent - 28%
Republican - 28%
If Republicans turn out in numbers similar to the 2004 and 2006 elections (same or about 2% less than Democrats), this election is very, very close!
Based on what I’ve been seeing, I fully expect Republicans to turn out in massive numbers.
Tuesday should be interesting!
Is Pew included in the RCP average?
Mac must be winning if even Pew, with their nonsensical methodology, has him within six.
If the party turnout is within the range it’s been since 1980, this poll says we win.
“More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.”
everyone knows that Obama is the hip canidate, I do not believe these people are undecided I beleive they will break big to McCain they jut do not want to say they are for McCain, and that is not the bradley effect, if the bradley effect is also a factor some of those that say they are for obama are really not, I have read elsewhere (which may or may not be a rumor) that more than half, I think it was 80%, of the people contacted to be polled did not want to be polled that could also be skewing the numbers for obama because I believe that mccain supporters would be less likely to participate in a poll by the MSM, IMHO
yet Obama doesn’t lose any support?
What a wacky poll. Mccain gains but Obama stays the same.
So what it is the 52-46, registered voters?
Obama will soon be joining Gore, Carter, Kerry for a quartet of losers.
McCain cut Obama’s lead by 9-points within a week. McCain now down 6-points with a +10 dem party weighting.
Interesting the poll says mcCain leads by 1 for those planning to vote on election day, but Obama leads by quite a big for those who already have voted.
Could be some good news for us with this strong bias in the poll.
However, I hope this is wrong:
“Significantly, Obama matches McCain or holds a narrow advantage among key swing voter groups that have voted Republican, or been evenly divided, in recent presidential elections. Aside from Obamas six-point edge among independents (45%-39%), he is nearly even with McCain among white non-Hispanic Catholics (47% McCain, 45% Obama), suburban voters (47%-43%), and white women (47%-44%). For detailed demographic tables see complete report PDF.
Notably, a much greater share of Obama supporters continue to say they are supporting him strongly, compared with McCain supporters. Among likely voters, 36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately. Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately. In most recent elections where there has been an imbalance in intensity of support, the candidate with the greater share of strong support has gone on to victory. “
The enthusiasm gap is a major problem if it truly is this big.
Simply reverse those numbers and you will be pretty close to the final numbers on election day.
You’re reading too much into a poll that had 0bama up 15 points just a few days ago. They’re a joke.
+10 Dems? I did not see that. Very interesting. Gives me hope this can still be won. Though it is discouraging to see just about every pundit and analyst (even Republicans) say 0bama will get well over 300 electoral votes. Fred Barnes and Bill Kristol are about the only exceptions.
“These little pissants at PEW never cease to amaze. Still trying to dissuade conservatives from voting,...”
That’s the strategy...dissuade conservatives and Republicans from voting by the constant hammering that Obama is a head. The mantra for the 2000 election was that there was no difference between Bush and Gore so don’t cast your vote for President, leave it blank...funny how when they did the recount they automatically assumed that a person who left out a vote for President was voting for Gore. GET OUT AND VOTE...NO WAY, NO HOW, NOBAMA!
I don’t know what true republicans are saying that but anyone who believes that is either lying or mis-informed.
There is no way they can gadge the enthusiasm going on in every middle America suburb, peace keeping, conservative, God loving citizen...no way. The enthusiasm is more than high it is off the charts...and what is driving it is this radical, too far liberal Obama. That is and will get the Evangelicals out of the house in numbers no one has ever seen. It's gonna happen and we will win.
Were you able to eat? I think one dinner like that would be more than I could stand.
I hear this poll has McCain ahead by one with likely voters?
Among people voting on election day. Does not count early voters.
They say McCain is up one point over Obama with voters who will vote on Tuesday. That McCain will lose with all votes counted.
I think their last week’s poll was bogus, and I think this one is fishy too. They are just trying to grab headlines.
they say it’s all momentum at the end.
Nothing has changed other than the Rs they counted in the poll.
Pray for McCuda and Our Troops
good point. also we have the fear of Obama going on that was pointed out in an article today. Some people in Virginia were quoted as being frightened of Obama, and they were listed as undecided.
“A 9% swing in less than a week”
And Bambi picked up a point to 53% as well.
The problem is that the if you ask 10% more democrats than republicans that question, you will definitely get that gap
They had Obama up by 15.
You could have held this election on the best day Obama ever had and he would NEVER come close to winning by 15, you could try it a million times, it would never happen, pure propaganda.
The Obama-Titanic is sinking like a rock.
The pollsters knew that big part of conservatives will vote for McCain/Palin because of Sarah Palin, not because of McCain. So, when people were asked about their support to candidates, and only mentioned McCain or 0bama, those are the numbers we got. Technically, they're right as the two are the presidential candidates. However, practically, it's an incomplete descriptions of what really is going on.
I remember stumbling upon a lefty site yesterday saying they needed a desperately big number of volunteers because they were struggling to reach voters etc. That is pretty telling.
The DUers have been complaining about a huge “flake rate” - people who promised to volunteer, but never showed up, no call, nothing. I heard (seriously) that several very popular video games were just released, so I guess all those dedicated Obama yut found something better to do with their time.
If anyone is still reading this thread, the real news is that even in the Obama-biased Pew poll, OBAMA IS UNDER 50%.
Click the link and look at the chart. The actual results among those likely voters who have decided is:
Obama 49, McCain 42, Minor candidates 2, leaving 7% undecided.
Pew arrived at the 52 v. 46 figure by an arbitrary guess allocating 4 to McCain and 3 to Obama.
But the point is: If even this Obama-biased poll has Obama uder 50%, there’s real grounds for hope here.
Where did you find this information for party ID? Thanks.
I am a bit concerned about a reverse bradley effect, where obama overperformed bigtime in some states, like NC.
He whooped up on Clinton there when polls showed it much closer.
Then we have other states like we have (PA, OH) where it went our way. Obama lost support to Clinton much worse than the polls showed.
So, who knows.
But, in states like NC, that is worrisome. I just hope any potential ‘reverse’ will be outweighed by high voter turnout overall.