Skip to comments.New Pew Poll: 052%, M46% [From 053%, M38% less than one week ago]
Posted on 11/02/2008 1:51:03 PM PST by Chet 99
November 2, 2008
Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days McCain Narrows Gap
Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Centers final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...
good point. also we have the fear of Obama going on that was pointed out in an article today. Some people in Virginia were quoted as being frightened of Obama, and they were listed as undecided.
“A 9% swing in less than a week”
And Bambi picked up a point to 53% as well.
The problem is that the if you ask 10% more democrats than republicans that question, you will definitely get that gap
They had Obama up by 15.
You could have held this election on the best day Obama ever had and he would NEVER come close to winning by 15, you could try it a million times, it would never happen, pure propaganda.
The Obama-Titanic is sinking like a rock.
The pollsters knew that big part of conservatives will vote for McCain/Palin because of Sarah Palin, not because of McCain. So, when people were asked about their support to candidates, and only mentioned McCain or 0bama, those are the numbers we got. Technically, they're right as the two are the presidential candidates. However, practically, it's an incomplete descriptions of what really is going on.
I remember stumbling upon a lefty site yesterday saying they needed a desperately big number of volunteers because they were struggling to reach voters etc. That is pretty telling.
The DUers have been complaining about a huge “flake rate” - people who promised to volunteer, but never showed up, no call, nothing. I heard (seriously) that several very popular video games were just released, so I guess all those dedicated Obama yut found something better to do with their time.
If anyone is still reading this thread, the real news is that even in the Obama-biased Pew poll, OBAMA IS UNDER 50%.
Click the link and look at the chart. The actual results among those likely voters who have decided is:
Obama 49, McCain 42, Minor candidates 2, leaving 7% undecided.
Pew arrived at the 52 v. 46 figure by an arbitrary guess allocating 4 to McCain and 3 to Obama.
But the point is: If even this Obama-biased poll has Obama uder 50%, there’s real grounds for hope here.
Where did you find this information for party ID? Thanks.
I am a bit concerned about a reverse bradley effect, where obama overperformed bigtime in some states, like NC.
He whooped up on Clinton there when polls showed it much closer.
Then we have other states like we have (PA, OH) where it went our way. Obama lost support to Clinton much worse than the polls showed.
So, who knows.
But, in states like NC, that is worrisome. I just hope any potential ‘reverse’ will be outweighed by high voter turnout overall.
Here’s the PDF:
It is hard to tell, since the party numbers are “unweighted”, but the other numbers are weighted...
“I am a bit concerned about a reverse bradley effect, where obama overperformed bigtime in some states, like NC.”
That’s wasn’t Reverse Bradley. It was higher than expected black turnout effect.
Where did you find the +10 dem party weighting? Thanks.
See post #16
And he was up big on Hillary in CA and NH.
I just want to make sure we don’t become an echo chamber. I am sure in 2004 there were a lot of the same things going on......statements that if we can just get tied we will win etc.
In sites like this, groupthink can take over.
that’s why it is important to look at things that could go the opposite of what people are thinking at your site.
Still, even with that, I think most of the signs point to a victory for us.
What echo chamber? It seems like most around here are gloomy and believe the election will go as the MSM predicts.
what I meant to say was in 2004, I am sure there were similar statements at DU.
i meant to say in 2004, I am sure there were similar statements on DU saying Kerry had good chances to win etc.
however, it is true there are some gloomy folks.
Just going by polls, there was more reason for a Dem to be optimistic in 2004. Kerry did far better in state polls than his national numbers suggested, and most pundits predicted undecideds would break heavily for Kerry, since Bush was the incumbent. It did not turn out that way.
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