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Why McCain Won
NEWSWEEK ^ | Oct 25, 2008 | Jonathan Alter

Posted on 11/02/2008 6:30:36 PM PST by BIOCHEMKY

The conventional wisdom, which I share, is that Barack Obama will win this election, perhaps by a healthy margin. But Democrats are nervous wrecks; they're having nightmares that defeat will be snatched from the jaws of victory. To add to their misery (and guard against complacency), here's how that horror film could play out:

In the end, the problem was the LIVs. That's short for "low-information voters," the three fifths of the electorate that show up once every four years to vote for president but mostly hate politics. These are the 75 million folks who didn't vote in the primaries. They don't read newsmagazines or newspapers, don't watch any cable news and don't cast their ballots early. Their allegiance to a candidate is as easily shed as a T shirt. Several million moved to Obama through September and October; they'd heard he handled himself well in the debates. Then, in the last week, the LIVs swung back to the default choice: John McCain. Some had good reasons other than the color of Obama's skin to desert him; many more did not. In October, a study by the Associated Press estimated that Obama's race would cost him 6 percent. The percentage was smaller, but still enough to give the presidency to McCain.

Obama's field organization was superb, so it was no surprise that most of the 18 million Hillary Clinton voters came home to the Democrats; the person-to-person voter contact (and significant resentment about the selection of Sarah Palin) made a big difference. But the huge swath of more than 30 million independents broke heavily for McCain. By piling up overwhelming margins in big blue states like California, New York and Illinois, Obama carried the popular vote, but he ended up like Al Gore in 2000—denied admission to the Electoral College.

(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; alter; election; jonathanalter; livs; lowinformation; mccain; win
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Hey, it all makes sense, doesn't it?

Look, it's GOING to happen.

So, relax and enjoy it already.

1 posted on 11/02/2008 6:30:37 PM PST by BIOCHEMKY
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To: BIOCHEMKY
Obama's field organization was superb, so it was no surprise that most of the 18 million Hillary Clinton voters came home to the Democrats.

They did, did they? Somebody ping the PUMAs on FR.

2 posted on 11/02/2008 6:33:12 PM PST by pray4liberty (This election will separate the wheat from the tares. Watch, pray, work and VOTE!)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

“here’s how that horror film could play out”

They aren’t biased are they?


3 posted on 11/02/2008 6:33:59 PM PST by Lawdoc (My dad married my aunt, so now my cousins are my brothers. Go figure.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
Obama's field organization was superb, so it was no surprise that most of the 18 million Hillary Clinton voters came home to the Democrats; the person-to-person voter contact

Can you say Schadenfreude?

4 posted on 11/02/2008 6:34:11 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (If You Have A BRAIN - You'll Vote For MCCAIN)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

I’ve said for the last two weeks that McCain is going to pull out this election.


5 posted on 11/02/2008 6:34:20 PM PST by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
I find it very interesting that Newsweek would be writing about the defeat of the Liberal Messiah. Don't they think His victory is a fait accompli?
6 posted on 11/02/2008 6:35:36 PM PST by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: no dems

>>I’ve said for the last two weeks that McCain is going to pull out this election.<<

Likewise. I doubled my bet the week before last.


7 posted on 11/02/2008 6:36:09 PM PST by RobRoy (Islam is a greater threat to the world today than Nazism was in the 1930's.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

Unfortunately, there are many in the 75 million who want to vote for the winner, which is why the media hyping and spinning the dems to victory is so darned dangerous.

I’ve just got this terrible feeling that given the media will really overplay how well Obama and the rest of the dems are doing to get the above mentioned vote, as well as to try to demoralize and hurt the republican base turnout.

Mark


8 posted on 11/02/2008 6:37:06 PM PST by MarkL (Al Gore: The Greenhouse Gasbag! (heard on Bob Brinker's Money Talk))
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To: BIOCHEMKY

Every Democrat voter is a ‘low information voter’.


9 posted on 11/02/2008 6:37:53 PM PST by raptor29
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To: BIOCHEMKY

The democrat party advocates for voting rights for murderers, rapists and burglars, and for non-english speakers. These folks are by definition, low-information voters. The democrat party is the natural home of the low information voter.


10 posted on 11/02/2008 6:38:49 PM PST by Sgt_Schultze
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To: no dems

The Lord our God is on our side and we will win.
I have FAITH in my fellow americans and I think the pundits on the TV shows are full of poop.
That’s it...i’m done now...:)


11 posted on 11/02/2008 6:39:38 PM PST by gimme1ibertee (Obama,the Hope Diamond ,is actually polished Chicago parking-lot glass.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

They might be setting him up for a fall? It sounds likely!


12 posted on 11/02/2008 6:40:53 PM PST by tallyhoe
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To: BIOCHEMKY
Some had good reasons other than the color of Obama's skin to desert him; many more did not.

It's those damn redneck racists again ... what are we going to do with those people.

13 posted on 11/02/2008 6:40:53 PM PST by tx_eggman ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule" - Mencken)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

It's for being a MARXIST and SOCIALIST, STUPID!!!

14 posted on 11/02/2008 6:41:35 PM PST by Colonial Warrior (Never approach a bull from the front, a horse from the rear, or a fool from any direction.)
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To: pray4liberty

“...most...” = 50.0001%?


15 posted on 11/02/2008 6:41:50 PM PST by Chaguito
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To: pray4liberty

It is really the PUMAs who will decide this election. Never thought I would say it in my lifetime (and even now I am hesitant to) but thank god for Hillary. I would rather take on an enemy I know in 2012 than a much more dangerous one I do not in 2008.


16 posted on 11/02/2008 6:41:58 PM PST by wrhssaxensemble
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To: BIOCHEMKY
Millions of people in the rest of the world assume that Barack Obama cannot be elected because he is black. They assume that the original sin of American history—enshrined in our Constitution—cannot be transcended.

What is the sin enshrined in our constitution?

17 posted on 11/02/2008 6:42:39 PM PST by littlehouse36 (If we will not be governed by God, then we will be ruled by tyrants. -- William Penn, 1701)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

The Obamalama is in trouble and it’s starting to show.


18 posted on 11/02/2008 6:42:40 PM PST by cripplecreek (Paying taxes for bank bailouts is apparently the patriotic thing to do. [/sarc])
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To: BIOCHEMKY

The guy voted three times in favor of legalized infanticide. Let him sweat. And please God, let him lose!


19 posted on 11/02/2008 6:44:09 PM PST by Aquinasfan (When you find "Sola Scriptura" in the Bible, let me know)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

What a sorry @ss article. Whatever happens....a McCain victory or God forbid an Obama win...the free and secret election is what makes our country great. To say “it shouldn’t have happened” is a slap in the face to all who voted for it to happen. I pray to God McCain wins...but I will NOT will NOT discredit all the legal votes that puts the winner over the top. If their are challenges of illegal votes that is one thing—that all will get worked out (or should) but if one candidate has a clear win...then we move on—the people would have spoken and what’s done is done and we transfer power from Bush to whomever in a peaceful manner.


20 posted on 11/02/2008 6:45:07 PM PST by Illinois Rep
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To: BIOCHEMKY

Translation of Article:

“We did our damndest to get this guy elected, but we, even Newsweek, just cannot lie any longer.”


21 posted on 11/02/2008 6:45:29 PM PST by LeoOshkosh (Crazy Leo is right again)
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To: wrhssaxensemble

At least she can prove her citizenship, whereas Barack can’t seem to. Also for what it’s worth, I don’t think the Nation of Islam would ever endorse her.


22 posted on 11/02/2008 6:45:32 PM PST by pray4liberty (This election will separate the wheat from the tares. Watch, pray, work and VOTE!)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
In the end, the problem was the LIVs. That's short for "low-information voters,"

I'll take it any way I can get it.

23 posted on 11/02/2008 6:45:35 PM PST by outofstyle (There's a rake at the gates of Hell tonight)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
The conventional wisdom, which I share, is that Barack Obama will win this election

Alter's first mistake.

24 posted on 11/02/2008 6:46:18 PM PST by Rocko (0bama is The Great Pumpkin)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

I’m looking for those voters that don’t care for either candidate to vote to protect the First and Second Amendments from destruction by the Democrats. It will be like 1994, and they will again call us “angry white men”.


25 posted on 11/02/2008 6:46:47 PM PST by Poincare
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To: no dems

I have as well to my family and friends and I am very confident that is exactly what is going to happen.


26 posted on 11/02/2008 6:47:00 PM PST by cubreporter
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To: BIOCHEMKY

Mr. Alter is so very much smarter than all of us racist, low information voters! If you don’t think so, just ask him.


27 posted on 11/02/2008 6:47:10 PM PST by 230FMJ (...from my cold, dead, fingers.)
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I love how the “low information” voter will only voter for McCain out of racism...oh sure there might be a couple with other reasons, but...

The complete idiocy of the left never ceases to amaze me.


28 posted on 11/02/2008 6:47:32 PM PST by Crimson Elephant
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To: Repeal 16-17
This is to keep the liberal sheep on board. The last thing the MSM needs is for Obambi voters to give up on waiting in a line to vote, just because of an attitude "what's the point, he's going to win anyway, I've seen the polls. May as well get home with thess 40 ouncers and start the victory party!"

This article was good reading, the thing I took out of it was that racism is going to be blamed for the Obama defeat. That means the libs will continue to not have a single clue about what loses national elections in this country.

29 posted on 11/02/2008 6:51:59 PM PST by hunter112 (They can have my pie when they pry it out of my cold, dead piehole.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
They are determined to paint anyone that would vote Republican as IGNORANT.... I've got your Low-infomation Voters.... They are the homeless, illiterate, minorities who are being paid to vote as many times as they can get away with and who are voting for some cigarettes and wild turkey.

Low-information voters indeed. Most of us have more information available to us than the accumulation of every Democrat in Philadelphia.

30 posted on 11/02/2008 6:52:15 PM PST by politicalmerc (NObama: more arrogant than Bill Clinton, more naive than Jimmy Carter, and more liberal than LBJ.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
As McCain closed the gap in the last week with his message... fear of another terrorist attack.

Terrorist attack likelihood has hardly been an issue. It is the specter of Obama's socialism that terrorizes voters, but Alter can hardly say that.

31 posted on 11/02/2008 6:52:15 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: Crimson Elephant
You said exactly what I was thinking.

Liberal projection is endlessly fascinating.

32 posted on 11/02/2008 6:53:08 PM PST by wbill
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To: BIOCHEMKY

The ignorant, racist voters gave the electoral college and the election to McCain while the sexist voters gave Obama a popular vote victory in spite of what happened to Hillary? A disturbing mix of wishful thinking and classic projection.


33 posted on 11/02/2008 6:53:19 PM PST by calenel (The Democratic Party is a Criminal Enterprise. It is the Socialist Mafia.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
They don't read newsmagazines

Translation: "They actually have the temerity -- the brazen, unmitigated gall -- not to listen to me: JONATHAN ALTER!!!!!!!"

Incidentally, someone really ought to inform Mr. Big Deal Famous the Writer that "news magazines" is two words, not one.

34 posted on 11/02/2008 6:55:32 PM PST by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle (G-d watch over and protect Sarah Palin and her family.)
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To: hunter112
That means the libs will continue to not have a single clue about what loses national elections in this country.

yep. I had an interesting discussion with a lib at work re: the 2006 elections. He was convinced that they were a referendum on the war, and Dems got "a mandate" to leave Iraq.

IMHO, the 2006 elections were more about Republicans staying home, illegal immigration, and corruption. The War in Iraq might not have even made the top 5.

35 posted on 11/02/2008 6:56:23 PM PST by wbill
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To: BIOCHEMKY

LOL. Obama has it by a landslide and you know it.

But we’ll be back and after Obama makes a fool of himself plagiarizing his way through four years in the white house — we’ll be back! And we will take congress, senate and the white house with Gov. Palin at the helm.


36 posted on 11/02/2008 6:56:55 PM PST by TaxRelief (Walmart: Keeping my family on-budget since 1993.)
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To: gimme1ibertee

“...The Lord our God is on our side”

In the words of Abraham Lincoln, “We must pray that we are on God’s side.”

God is for the sanctity of life and for liberty.

Remember, “Righteousness exalts a nation, but sin is a reproach to any land.”

Vote for those candidates who have taken a stand for what’s righteous.


37 posted on 11/02/2008 6:57:04 PM PST by freedom4me (No compromise w/ the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact w/ unrepentant wrong. --Churchill)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
So, relax and enjoy it already.

My wife will for sure, the AR15's and AK47's that I'm lining up are making her nervous.. The worst part is, she know's we'll need them and she's least knowledgable/political of us.. She feels a real danger brewing.

I'm a native Texan and she's already said that if the SHTF we are going to Texas, safest place to be.
38 posted on 11/02/2008 6:57:22 PM PST by acw011 (Great Goooogly Mooogly!)
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To: raptor29

“Every Democrat voter is a ‘low information voter’.”

ROFL


39 posted on 11/02/2008 6:57:59 PM PST by HelloooClareece ("We make war that we may live in peace". Aristotle)
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To: wbill

Monday’s papers will be full of “Obama will lose” articles to try to stem the flow of complacency among ignorant and young Obamamaniacs.


40 posted on 11/02/2008 6:58:45 PM PST by TaxRelief (Walmart: Keeping my family on-budget since 1993.)
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To: RobRoy

Obama now over 89 on Intrade. Time to double up again.


41 posted on 11/02/2008 6:59:36 PM PST by AZLiberty (Obama can act presidential. McCain should be President.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

Let me see......

He’s broken every campaign law written.

His ACORN friends have extra registrants just in case.

They will bus every homeless drug addict to the polls and pay them with cigarettes.

The college kids have been indoctrinated by the warped professors and Obama is promising to pay their way through life.

They’ve scared the seniors (again).

The Liberal media has successfully squashed every negative news story on Obama.

They’ve destroyed the VP pick.

IF LAWS WERE ENFORCED AND OBJECTIVITY RULED THE LAND, DEMOCRATS WOULD BE EXTINCT.


42 posted on 11/02/2008 7:00:55 PM PST by crashthe24
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To: freedom4me

“Vote for those candidates who have taken a stand for what’s righteous.”

No-brainer.
And I prefer to believe that most americans are on God’s side....therefore,we will win.


43 posted on 11/02/2008 7:01:03 PM PST by gimme1ibertee (Obama,the Hope Diamond ,is actually polished Chicago parking-lot glass.)
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To: politicalmerc
Low-information voters indeed. Most of us have more information available to us than the accumulation of every Democrat in Philadelphia.

As Howard Stern demonstrated, you can add Harlem to that.

44 posted on 11/02/2008 7:03:25 PM PST by AZLiberty (Obama can act presidential. McCain should be President.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

Ho Hum. Another article that says if we don’t vote for Obama, it must be because we’re racist. They don’t even touch on the issues.


45 posted on 11/02/2008 7:05:41 PM PST by keats5 ("I hope for his sake, Joe Biden got that VP thing in writing."- Rudy)
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To: TaxRelief

The liberals at Newsweek have conceded.

They’re setting it up to blame Obama’s loss on racism.


46 posted on 11/02/2008 7:06:31 PM PST by 1035rep
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To: BIOCHEMKY
The MAIN problem is that MOST of the "LIVS", as the bald-headed left-wing Obama schill, Alter, calls them - have, or will, vote for Obama.

It's the lib-inspired dumbing down of America that works in the Socialists favor.

47 posted on 11/02/2008 7:08:07 PM PST by DocH (Osama Obama: Leader of an America-Hating Socialist /Black Nationalist Sleeper Cell)
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To: BIOCHEMKY
From the article: As it turned out, the real problem wasn't south Florida, where Hispanics came in surprisingly well for Obama. It was erosion in the critical I-4 corridor near Tampa and in the Panhandle, where the astonishing Republican margins among whites could be attributed only to race.

This is pure evil. The notion that this election is all about race -- and not about two very different views of how this country should be governed -- is intended to create anger or fear, depending on your skin color.

48 posted on 11/02/2008 7:09:10 PM PST by AZLiberty (Obama can act presidential. McCain should be President.)
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To: BIOCHEMKY; LS; Perdogg

I disagree...McCain will carry IA and NV. The rest of the article is some what on target.


49 posted on 11/02/2008 7:12:48 PM PST by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: BIOCHEMKY

LIVs are the voters who read Newsweak.


50 posted on 11/02/2008 7:13:43 PM PST by dr_who
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