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The Road To 270 EV's-Not As Hard As You Would Think For McCain
realclearpolitics ^ | 11-03-08 | research

Posted on 11/03/2008 6:49:09 AM PST by icwhatudo

Its pretty simple. Assuming McCain wins the states he is currently in the lead or tied in according to RCP averages of state polls, then theses are the states he would have to carry to defeat Obama:

State Obama (D) McCain (R) RCP Average RCP Status 2004 2000
Florida (27) 48.5 46.0 Obama +2.5 Toss Up Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1
Virginia (13) 50.0 45.8 Obama +4.2 Toss Up Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1
Ohio (20) 48.3 44.7 Obama +3.6 Toss Up Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5
Colorado (9) 50.5 45.0 Obama +5.5 Leaning Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4

This would make it a 269/269 tie. The kicker is Maine. Maine has two Congresional districts. It is one of two states that splits its four Electoral College votes, meaning McCain can come away with at least one of them if he wins Maine's northern, rural 2nd District.


(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Free Republic; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 270; electoral; mccain; mccainpalin; nobama; palin; poll; polls
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Forget the national polls and take a good look at the individual polling in these key states. Electoral votes decide this election, not the popular vote. After doing a bit of research, I'm feeling a lot better about McCains chances. He doesn't need PA or Iowa or Wisconsin, just win where Bush won before and he wins.
1 posted on 11/03/2008 6:49:10 AM PST by icwhatudo
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To: icwhatudo

After the coal quote, McCain clinches PA and it is all over for Obama.


2 posted on 11/03/2008 6:50:06 AM PST by truthandlife ("Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our God." (Ps 20:7))
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To: truthandlife

2 out of the 4 traditionally Dem voting areas, Northeast and Southwest PA, are coal mining regions. That could be the ticket for McCain taking PA.


3 posted on 11/03/2008 6:51:36 AM PST by Born Conservative (Bohicaville: http://bohicaville.wordpress.com/)
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To: truthandlife

Thats what weird, he doesn’t even need PA to win yet people are freaking out about an Obama blow out. Win 3 Toss-ups and one leaner and game over for Obama.


4 posted on 11/03/2008 6:52:26 AM PST by icwhatudo (PALIN VID=========>>>>>http://www.overstream.net/view.php?oid=n1ronxelmtin<++++++++)
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To: Born Conservative

There were approximately 619,000 wage and salary jobs in the mining industry in 2006; around 136,000 in oil and gas extraction; 79,000 in coal mining; 33,000 in metal mining; and 110,000 in nonmetallic mineral mining. Not included in these figures are the thousands of Americans who work abroad for U.S. companies conducting mining or drilling operations around the world.

Although there were around 1,400 coal mining operations in 26 States in 2005, over two-thirds of all coal mines, and about half of all mine employees, were located in just three States—Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, according to the Energy Information Administration. Other States employing large numbers of coal miners are Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, Virginia, and Wyoming. Metal mining is more prevalent in the West and Southwest, particularly in Arizona, Nevada, and Montana, and iron ore mining in Minnesota and Michigan.

5 posted on 11/03/2008 6:52:29 AM PST by truthandlife ("Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our God." (Ps 20:7))
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To: icwhatudo

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2122710/posts


6 posted on 11/03/2008 6:52:41 AM PST by DBCJR (What would you expect?)
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To: icwhatudo

Electoral votes decide this election, not the popular vote....

Wait till the Obama voters find this out!!


7 posted on 11/03/2008 6:53:16 AM PST by Hang'emAll
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To: icwhatudo
Assuming McCain wins the states he is currently in the lead or tied in

Winning every single tie is on a par with winning the lottery.

8 posted on 11/03/2008 6:54:05 AM PST by steve-b (Intelligent design is to evolutionary biology what socialism is to free-market economics.)
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To: icwhatudo

What concerns me now is, it is going to be raining in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia tomorrow.

How many people who are depressed by these stupid poll numbers will show up in the rain to vote? I hope the answer is *every* single one.


9 posted on 11/03/2008 6:54:10 AM PST by babydubya1981 (Homeschooling Moms for McCain/Palin 08)
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To: icwhatudo
People are getting freaked out over final MSM polls loaded with Democrats that have Obama winning a majority even without a majority of the white vote. On what planet? The MSM has to doctor its polls to give Obama a wide lead. That's why I don't trust any of them.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

10 posted on 11/03/2008 6:55:02 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: truthandlife

“After the coal quote, McCain clinches PA and it is all over for Obama.”

—only if it gets traction and we are running out of time

(fingers are crossed tightly cutting off circulation to fingertips...)


11 posted on 11/03/2008 6:55:40 AM PST by zwerni (*** PALIN/mccain 2008 ***)
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To: steve-b
Winning every single tie is on a par with winning the lottery.

Normally, what you say has merit. However, in today's world of vastly over-sampled Democrats, all of the tied/leaners are most likely solid.

12 posted on 11/03/2008 6:55:54 AM PST by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: icwhatudo

McCain will win the election, lose the popular vote. The polls may be right, but the pundits will be wrong.

My prediction all along is that Obama wins the popular vote due to the record-number turnout by black votes (and fraud) in the cities.

However, most of the cities are concentrated in blue states.


13 posted on 11/03/2008 6:57:19 AM PST by nhwingut (,)
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To: steve-b

He is only tied in one. NC


14 posted on 11/03/2008 6:57:27 AM PST by icwhatudo (PALIN VID=========>>>>>http://www.overstream.net/view.php?oid=n1ronxelmtin<++++++++)
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To: steve-b

“Winning every single tie is on a par with winning the lottery.”

—yes it is difficult but not that hard. It comes down to momentum (although i’m not convinced he has enough)


15 posted on 11/03/2008 6:58:14 AM PST by zwerni (*** PALIN/mccain 2008 ***)
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To: steve-b
Assuming McCain wins the states he is currently in the lead or tied in

Winning every single tie is on a par with winning the lottery.


That is what is so scary! I am praying hard that come tomorrow there is a huge turnout of people voting against Obama and for McCain/Palin!!!
16 posted on 11/03/2008 6:58:30 AM PST by An American! (Proud To Be An American!)
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To: babydubya1981

Conservatives vote in inclement weather.

Liberals, by nature, don’t bother doing anything that is hard, or isn’t pleasurable.


17 posted on 11/03/2008 6:58:38 AM PST by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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To: icwhatudo

Will Louisiana go blue?


18 posted on 11/03/2008 6:59:04 AM PST by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: truthandlife
I haven't heard anyone say VA is affected by the the coal industry. In SW Virginia, it's the only industry, and Hampton Roads is the largest coal terminal ON EARTH.


19 posted on 11/03/2008 6:59:57 AM PST by Thrownatbirth (.....Iraq Invasion fan since '91.)
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To: babydubya1981

Bad weather generally helps Republicans. Democrats are afraid to go out in the rain; they might melt.


20 posted on 11/03/2008 7:00:10 AM PST by B Knotts (Calvin Coolidge Republican)
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To: icwhatudo
This would make it a 269/269 tie. The kicker is Maine. Maine has two Congresional districts. It is one of two states that splits its four Electoral College votes, meaning McCain can come away with at least one of them if he wins Maine's northern, rural 2nd District.

Let's not forget Maine isn't the only state that does that. Nebraska does, too. And Nebraska 2nd encompasses Omaha and the surrounding area. What support Obama has will be centered there, and a big turnout could flip that.

21 posted on 11/03/2008 7:00:56 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: babydubya1981

I’m in NC. Most everybody I’ve talked to have early voted.

The one Gore/Kerry guy voted for Obama. All the R’s voted for McCain. The one Libertarian, who voted for others previously voted for Mac, really Palin. And all the other D’s have voted for McCain/Palin.

I guess most of my friends think the way I do.


22 posted on 11/03/2008 7:01:13 AM PST by PeteB570 (NRA - Life member and Black Rifle owner)
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To: icwhatudo

In reality it’s Obama with the uphill battle. He hast to flip more than just VA to win, and he has to work hard to defend, NH, PA and West Va.


23 posted on 11/03/2008 7:01:14 AM PST by Cosmo (Liberalism is for girls)
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To: TornadoAlley3

No. Louisiana will stay red.


24 posted on 11/03/2008 7:01:21 AM PST by txzman (Jer 23:29)
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To: icwhatudo

I agree. A lot of this popular vote is coming from high interest in urban parts of New York, California, and Illinois. Whether those state go 55% for Obama or 85% doesn’t matter, but it does affect the popular vote and the polls.


25 posted on 11/03/2008 7:02:10 AM PST by ElkGroveDan (Reagan is back, and this time he's a woman.)
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To: babydubya1981

“How many people who are depressed by these stupid poll numbers will show up in the rain to vote?”

I will. I’m in Virginia. I took the day off because I’ve been temporarily working in another Virginia location 4 hours away. And I will stand in line in the rain for as long as it takes. I can’t be the only one!


26 posted on 11/03/2008 7:02:25 AM PST by Wage Slave (Good fences make good neighbors. -- Robert Frost)
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To: Wage Slave

I will too - and I live in Chicago so my vote is (probably literally) flushed down the toilet anyway


27 posted on 11/03/2008 7:03:25 AM PST by Hegewisch Dupa (The goo on John Kerry's flip-flops)
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To: txzman

McCain gets most of the white vote, 61 percent to Obama’s 21 percent, but Obama just about owns the African-American vote, registering 83 percent to 3 percent for McCain in the poll, conducted for WWL-TV and a consortium of Louisiana television stations.

I am nervous.


28 posted on 11/03/2008 7:04:27 AM PST by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: steve-b

mac winning north carolina is on par with winning the lottery?


29 posted on 11/03/2008 7:04:37 AM PST by outlawjake
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To: truthandlife
After the coal quote, McCain clinches PA and it is all over for Obama.

Not if O wins CO and VA.

30 posted on 11/03/2008 7:05:28 AM PST by nwrep
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To: truthandlife
After the coal quote, McCain clinches PA and it is all over for Obama.

I'd love to hear from anyone on the ground in Pennsylvania. Are TV ads by McCain and/or surrogates hitting BHO's "we'll bankrupt the coal companies" quote hard and often? Is it gaining any traction?

From the viewpoint of an outside observer, it seems to me the only defense the Dems are offering is that it's old news, or an old quote, as if that changes anything.

I'd like to think this issue puts Pennsylvania in play. How's it look there?

31 posted on 11/03/2008 7:07:17 AM PST by southernnorthcarolina (May contain traces of tree nuts.)
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To: icwhatudo; steve-b
He is only tied in one. NC

I'm telling ya, if McCain loses NC, I'll eat my keyboard. In fact, I put money on McCain+5 about a month or so ago, with a rabidly Dem Co-worker. It's fun to pull his chain.

NC is solidly for McCain. Trust me on this.

32 posted on 11/03/2008 7:07:34 AM PST by wbill
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To: MrB
Conservatives vote in inclement weather.
Weather Forecasts for KEY CITIES and BATTLEGROUND STATES (Impact on Voter Turnout, GOTV, etc)

Ohio (20 electoral votes)
2004 vote: Bush-R (50.8 pct) 2,858,727; Kerry-D (48.7 pct) 2,739,952 Recent Polls: Obama 51 pct, McCain 47 pct - CNN/Time (thru Tuesday)
Cincinnati weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 72 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph)
Cleveland weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 66 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph)
Columbus weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 71 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph)

*****************************

Florida (27 electoral votes)
2004 vote: Bush-R (52.1 pct) 3,964,522; Kerry-D (47.1) 3,583,544 Recent Polls: Obama 51 pct, McCain 47 pct - CNN/Time (thru Tuesday)
Jacksonville weather.com forecast: Showers (40 pct chance of precipitation), high of 75 degrees, windy (13 mph)
Miami weather.com forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 81 degrees, (10 pct chance of precipitation), mild winds (9 mph)
Tampa weather.com forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 81 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), calm winds (6 mph)

*****************************

Missouri (11 electoral votes)
2004 vote: Bush-R (53.3 pct) 1,455,713; Kerry-D (46.1 pct) 1,259,171 Recent Polls: McCain 48 pct, Obama 48 pct - American Research Group (thru Thursday)
Kansas City weather.com forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 74 (20 pct chance of precipitation), windy (19 mph)
St. Louis weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 72 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), mild winds (11 mph)
Springfield weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 71 degrees (20 pct chance of precipitation), windy (15 mph)

*****************************

Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
2004 vote: Kerry-D (50.9 pct) 2,938,095; Bush-R (2,793,847 Recent Polls: Obama 52 pct, McCain 44 pct - Muhlenberg Coll/Morning Call (thru Friday)
Philadelphia weather.com forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 66 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), calm winds (4 mph)
Pittsburgh weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 68 degees (10 pct chance of precipitation), calm wind (4 mph)
Allentown weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 65 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), calm wind (5 mph)


33 posted on 11/03/2008 7:08:22 AM PST by steve-b (Intelligent design is to evolutionary biology what socialism is to free-market economics.)
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To: icwhatudo
Rove, the Magnificent Bastard, was on F&F this morning and he had a different take on the matter. According to him, McCain had to run all the tossups plus flip a Blue State.

Rove also had Ohio in the Zero column.

34 posted on 11/03/2008 7:08:34 AM PST by Yo-Yo
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To: Non-Sequitur

Neither NE nor ME will split its EVs in 2008, but McCain’s fight for the ME-02 (47% for Gore in 2000, 52% for Kerry in 2004) is less pie-in-the-sky than Obama’s campaign for the NE-02 (which gave President Bush 57% in 2000 and 60% in 2004).


35 posted on 11/03/2008 7:08:53 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican (Fred Thompson appears human-sized because he is actually standing a million miles away.)
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To: southernnorthcarolina

I truly believe this was McCain’s plan all along. Get Pennsylvania in striking distance and then dump this out there to clinch it. The last 72 hours every election is won and McCain will do it.


36 posted on 11/03/2008 7:09:22 AM PST by truthandlife ("Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our God." (Ps 20:7))
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To: PeteB570
I guess most of my friends think the way I do.

Such is the problem with anecdotal reports. They are great morale boosters though.

37 posted on 11/03/2008 7:10:11 AM PST by The Hound Passer
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To: nhwingut

“McCain will win the election, lose the popular vote.”

Chrissy Mathews cries on air. Olberdork snaps and drops the F*Bomb. Supporters burn down their own cities. Moonbats scream about another “stolen election.”

I laugh myself silly until I doze off into a peaceful slumber.


38 posted on 11/03/2008 7:12:15 AM PST by wilco200 (Typical White Person)
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To: nwrep

If McCain wins PA but loses CO and VA, he still gets over 280 EV’s.


39 posted on 11/03/2008 7:14:35 AM PST by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: MrB

My thoughts exactly. Bring on the rain tomorrow. I’ll be there no matter what!


40 posted on 11/03/2008 7:14:38 AM PST by castowell (...and all weez can say is "Merci beaucoup." - BHO, 7/8/08)
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To: TornadoAlley3

I don’t understand when the black population is only 11-12%, half or so of voting age, how that number could possibly determine the outcome.


41 posted on 11/03/2008 7:15:18 AM PST by jackv (Just shakin' my head!!)
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To: Thickman
If McCain wins PA but loses CO and VA, he still gets over 280 EV’s.

Not really, because I am assuming he will lose NV, NM and IA.

42 posted on 11/03/2008 7:15:48 AM PST by nwrep
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To: steve-b

Yes sure. Winning red states that Bush won is really like hitting the lottery.
ok.


43 posted on 11/03/2008 7:16:30 AM PST by snarkytart
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To: The Hound Passer
We live in Cumberland County and under no illusions of victory in this county. We only add out tally to the state numbers.

It's all on turn out - state wide.

44 posted on 11/03/2008 7:21:22 AM PST by PeteB570 (NRA - Life member and Black Rifle owner)
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To: Yo-Yo
Rove, the Magnificent Bastard, was on F&F this morning and he had a different take on the matter. According to him, McCain had to run all the tossups plus flip a Blue State.
Rove also had Ohio in the Zero column.

Rove is a numbers guy, and let's be honest, none of the public polls have good numbers for McCain. BUT as Michael Barone said on F&F this AM the polls are like impressionist paintings; the closer you get to them the more unclear they get.

McCain MUST win OH and VA. He also must win any two of these three: NV, CO, NH. (NV, NH combo results in a tie) OR win PA. As Rove said, McCain must flip a blue state. If McCain wins PA and holds all '04 blue states except NM, IA, NV, and CO he wins.

How much of this is Pollyanna wishful thinking, I can't say. Assume most of the undecideds go McCain. The real question is will the undecideds vote in the face of long wait times? They may be for McCain but are they dedicated to win or are they too uninformed to really be inconvenienced?

45 posted on 11/03/2008 7:26:31 AM PST by The Hound Passer
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To: icwhatudo
From the UK TimesOnline, A VERY intersting comment on how polls are done in the US:

_________________

"British polls are properly and carefully weighted, taking account of what is known as the spiral of silence – the tendency of voters for the less fashionable party to keep their intentions to themselves. British pollsters weight their results to allow for these shy voters. US pollsters do not."

"It isn’t unreasonable to believe that there could be a Republican spiral of silence. And that US pollsters are all missing it."

-----

And has there been a year in recent history where one candidate was less "fashionable" than this year??? I don't think so.

46 posted on 11/03/2008 7:28:58 AM PST by cookcounty ("A ship in harbor is safe, but that's not why the ship is built." ---Governor Sarah Palin)
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To: Hang'emAll
Electoral votes decide this election, not the popular vote....

How's acorn going to register "Electorals."

47 posted on 11/03/2008 7:29:23 AM PST by RobinOfKingston (Democrats, the party of evil. Republicans, the party of stupid.)
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To: MrB

B I N G O-()


48 posted on 11/03/2008 7:29:36 AM PST by geo40xyz (BE PREPARED: Geo The Engineer says 5-0 for SARAH in my household, screw HUSSEIN & the MSM:-)))))
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To: The Hound Passer

Conventional wisdom has it that long lines and good weather favor Democrats, because Republicans have jobs and can’t stand in line for hours to vote.

Even though my state is probably in the Zero column, I’m still going to wait as long as it takes to cast my vote. I hope those in Detroit and Flint/Saginaw are so confident that they stay home. McCain will easily win the rest of the State (with the possible exception of ‘Berkley East,’ a.k.a. Ann Arbor.)


49 posted on 11/03/2008 7:30:41 AM PST by Yo-Yo
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To: steve-b
Winning every single tie is on a par with winning the lottery.

You are assuming that the win or loss is like a coin flip. I would submit to you that, based on my own personal experiences, the coin is more likely to land with the McCain side up.

I was polled twice by Gallup this time around. The first question was on the economy, the second question was on the direction of the country, the third question was approval/disapproval of President Bush, and the forth question was McCain/Obama.

Now, I answered that the Economy was great, the country was moving in the right direction, I had a favorable opinion of President Bush, and I'm voting for McCain. I have no way of proving it, but I am fairly certain that I am the only person in America who answered those four questions that particular way. I think most people said that the economy sux, the country is headed down the toilet, and they don't much care for President Bush and then they were then asked who they like for President. Now, given that those three answers were fresh in their minds, how many are going to say that they want McCain?

The problem with the poll is, that people don't vote like that. They don't run through a check-list in their mind. They look at the two candidates, and pick who they think is best for the job. On that score, a heck of a lot of them are going to go for John McCain.

If Gallup wanted to improve their polling accuracy, they would call and ask who people were intending to vote for, and then hang up the phone. But, for some reason, polling accuracy does not seem to be top on their list of priorities.

50 posted on 11/03/2008 7:30:51 AM PST by gridlock (18 Million Democrats voted for Hillary in the primaries. Are they all racists?)
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