Skip to comments.The Road To 270 EV's-Not As Hard As You Would Think For McCain
Posted on 11/03/2008 6:49:09 AM PST by icwhatudo
Its pretty simple. Assuming McCain wins the states he is currently in the lead or tied in according to RCP averages of state polls, then theses are the states he would have to carry to defeat Obama:
|State||Obama (D)||McCain (R)||RCP Average||RCP Status||2004||2000|
|Florida (27)||48.5||46.0||Obama +2.5||Toss Up||Bush +5.0||Bush +0.1|
|Virginia (13)||50.0||45.8||Obama +4.2||Toss Up||Bush +8.2||Bush +8.1|
|Ohio (20)||48.3||44.7||Obama +3.6||Toss Up||Bush +2.1||Bush +3.5|
|Colorado (9)||50.5||45.0||Obama +5.5||Leaning||Bush +4.7||Bush +8.4|
This would make it a 269/269 tie. The kicker is Maine. Maine has two Congresional districts. It is one of two states that splits its four Electoral College votes, meaning McCain can come away with at least one of them if he wins Maine's northern, rural 2nd District.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
After the coal quote, McCain clinches PA and it is all over for Obama.
2 out of the 4 traditionally Dem voting areas, Northeast and Southwest PA, are coal mining regions. That could be the ticket for McCain taking PA.
Thats what weird, he doesn’t even need PA to win yet people are freaking out about an Obama blow out. Win 3 Toss-ups and one leaner and game over for Obama.
There were approximately 619,000 wage and salary jobs in the mining industry in 2006; around 136,000 in oil and gas extraction; 79,000 in coal mining; 33,000 in metal mining; and 110,000 in nonmetallic mineral mining. Not included in these figures are the thousands of Americans who work abroad for U.S. companies conducting mining or drilling operations around the world.
Although there were around 1,400 coal mining operations in 26 States in 2005, over two-thirds of all coal mines, and about half of all mine employees, were located in just three StatesKentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, according to the Energy Information Administration. Other States employing large numbers of coal miners are Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, Virginia, and Wyoming. Metal mining is more prevalent in the West and Southwest, particularly in Arizona, Nevada, and Montana, and iron ore mining in Minnesota and Michigan.
Electoral votes decide this election, not the popular vote....
Wait till the Obama voters find this out!!
Winning every single tie is on a par with winning the lottery.
What concerns me now is, it is going to be raining in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia tomorrow.
How many people who are depressed by these stupid poll numbers will show up in the rain to vote? I hope the answer is *every* single one.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
“After the coal quote, McCain clinches PA and it is all over for Obama.”
—only if it gets traction and we are running out of time
(fingers are crossed tightly cutting off circulation to fingertips...)
Normally, what you say has merit. However, in today's world of vastly over-sampled Democrats, all of the tied/leaners are most likely solid.
McCain will win the election, lose the popular vote. The polls may be right, but the pundits will be wrong.
My prediction all along is that Obama wins the popular vote due to the record-number turnout by black votes (and fraud) in the cities.
However, most of the cities are concentrated in blue states.
He is only tied in one. NC
“Winning every single tie is on a par with winning the lottery.”
—yes it is difficult but not that hard. It comes down to momentum (although i’m not convinced he has enough)
Conservatives vote in inclement weather.
Liberals, by nature, don’t bother doing anything that is hard, or isn’t pleasurable.
Will Louisiana go blue?
Bad weather generally helps Republicans. Democrats are afraid to go out in the rain; they might melt.
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