The Road To 270 EV's-Not As Hard As You Would Think For McCain

realclearpolitics ^ | 11-03-08 | research

[icwhatudo]

Its pretty simple. Assuming McCain wins the states he is currently in the lead or tied in according to RCP averages of state polls, then theses are the states he would have to carry to defeat Obama:

State	Obama (D)	McCain (R)	RCP Average	RCP Status	2004	2000
Florida (27)	48.5	46.0	Obama +2.5	Toss Up	Bush +5.0	Bush +0.1
Virginia (13)	50.0	45.8	Obama +4.2	Toss Up	Bush +8.2	Bush +8.1
Ohio (20)	48.3	44.7	Obama +3.6	Toss Up	Bush +2.1	Bush +3.5
Colorado (9)	50.5	45.0	Obama +5.5	Leaning	Bush +4.7	Bush +8.4
This would make it a 269/269 tie. The kicker is Maine. Maine has two Congresional districts. It is one of two states that splits its four Electoral College votes, meaning McCain can come away with at least one of them if he wins Maine's northern, rural 2nd District.

[Non-Sequitur]

This would make it a 269/269 tie. The kicker is Maine. Maine has two Congresional districts. It is one of two states that splits its four Electoral College votes, meaning McCain can come away with at least one of them if he wins Maine's northern, rural 2nd District.

Let's not forget Maine isn't the only state that does that. Nebraska does, too. And Nebraska 2nd encompasses Omaha and the surrounding area. What support Obama has will be centered there, and a big turnout could flip that.

[PeteB570]

I’m in NC. Most everybody I’ve talked to have early voted.

The one Gore/Kerry guy voted for Obama. All the R’s voted for McCain. The one Libertarian, who voted for others previously voted for Mac, really Palin. And all the other D’s have voted for McCain/Palin.

I guess most of my friends think the way I do.

[Cosmo]

In reality it’s Obama with the uphill battle. He hast to flip more than just VA to win, and he has to work hard to defend, NH, PA and West Va.

[txzman]

No. Louisiana will stay red.

[ElkGroveDan]

I agree. A lot of this popular vote is coming from high interest in urban parts of New York, California, and Illinois. Whether those state go 55% for Obama or 85% doesn’t matter, but it does affect the popular vote and the polls.

[Wage Slave]

“How many people who are depressed by these stupid poll numbers will show up in the rain to vote?”

I will. I’m in Virginia. I took the day off because I’ve been temporarily working in another Virginia location 4 hours away. And I will stand in line in the rain for as long as it takes. I can’t be the only one!

[Hegewisch Dupa]

I will too - and I live in Chicago so my vote is (probably literally) flushed down the toilet anyway

[TornadoAlley3]

McCain gets most of the white vote, 61 percent to Obama’s 21 percent, but Obama just about owns the African-American vote, registering 83 percent to 3 percent for McCain in the poll, conducted for WWL-TV and a consortium of Louisiana television stations.

I am nervous.

[outlawjake]

mac winning north carolina is on par with winning the lottery?

[nwrep]

After the coal quote, McCain clinches PA and it is all over for Obama.

Not if O wins CO and VA.

[southernnorthcarolina]

After the coal quote, McCain clinches PA and it is all over for Obama.

I'd love to hear from anyone on the ground in Pennsylvania. Are TV ads by McCain and/or surrogates hitting BHO's "we'll bankrupt the coal companies" quote hard and often? Is it gaining any traction?

From the viewpoint of an outside observer, it seems to me the only defense the Dems are offering is that it's old news, or an old quote, as if that changes anything.

I'd like to think this issue puts Pennsylvania in play. How's it look there?

[wbill]

He is only tied in one. NC

I'm telling ya, if McCain loses NC, I'll eat my keyboard. In fact, I put money on McCain+5 about a month or so ago, with a rabidly Dem Co-worker. It's fun to pull his chain.

NC is solidly for McCain. Trust me on this.

[steve-b]

Conservatives vote in inclement weather.

Weather Forecasts for KEY CITIES and BATTLEGROUND STATES (Impact on Voter Turnout, GOTV, etc)

Ohio (20 electoral votes)
2004 vote: Bush-R (50.8 pct) 2,858,727; Kerry-D (48.7 pct) 2,739,952 Recent Polls: Obama 51 pct, McCain 47 pct - CNN/Time (thru Tuesday)
Cincinnati weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 72 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph)
Cleveland weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 66 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph)
Columbus weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 71 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), slight winds (7 mph)

*****************************

Florida (27 electoral votes)
2004 vote: Bush-R (52.1 pct) 3,964,522; Kerry-D (47.1) 3,583,544 Recent Polls: Obama 51 pct, McCain 47 pct - CNN/Time (thru Tuesday)
Jacksonville weather.com forecast: Showers (40 pct chance of precipitation), high of 75 degrees, windy (13 mph)
Miami weather.com forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 81 degrees, (10 pct chance of precipitation), mild winds (9 mph)
Tampa weather.com forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 81 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), calm winds (6 mph)

*****************************

Missouri (11 electoral votes)
2004 vote: Bush-R (53.3 pct) 1,455,713; Kerry-D (46.1 pct) 1,259,171 Recent Polls: McCain 48 pct, Obama 48 pct - American Research Group (thru Thursday)
Kansas City weather.com forecast: Partly cloudy, high of 74 (20 pct chance of precipitation), windy (19 mph)
St. Louis weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 72 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), mild winds (11 mph)
Springfield weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 71 degrees (20 pct chance of precipitation), windy (15 mph)

*****************************

Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
2004 vote: Kerry-D (50.9 pct) 2,938,095; Bush-R (2,793,847 Recent Polls: Obama 52 pct, McCain 44 pct - Muhlenberg Coll/Morning Call (thru Friday)
Philadelphia weather.com forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 66 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), calm winds (4 mph)
Pittsburgh weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 68 degees (10 pct chance of precipitation), calm wind (4 mph)
Allentown weather.com forecast: Sunny, high of 65 degrees (10 pct chance of precipitation), calm wind (5 mph)

[Yo-Yo]

Rove, the Magnificent Bastard, was on F&F this morning and he had a different take on the matter. According to him, McCain had to run all the tossups plus flip a Blue State.

Rove also had Ohio in the Zero column.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Neither NE nor ME will split its EVs in 2008, but McCain’s fight for the ME-02 (47% for Gore in 2000, 52% for Kerry in 2004) is less pie-in-the-sky than Obama’s campaign for the NE-02 (which gave President Bush 57% in 2000 and 60% in 2004).

[truthandlife]

I truly believe this was McCain’s plan all along. Get Pennsylvania in striking distance and then dump this out there to clinch it. The last 72 hours every election is won and McCain will do it.

[The Hound Passer]

I guess most of my friends think the way I do.

Such is the problem with anecdotal reports. They are great morale boosters though.

[wilco200]

“McCain will win the election, lose the popular vote.”

Chrissy Mathews cries on air. Olberdork snaps and drops the F*Bomb. Supporters burn down their own cities. Moonbats scream about another “stolen election.”

I laugh myself silly until I doze off into a peaceful slumber.

[Thickman]

If McCain wins PA but loses CO and VA, he still gets over 280 EV’s.

[castowell]

My thoughts exactly. Bring on the rain tomorrow. I’ll be there no matter what!