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Nevada Early Vote Stats Reveal Obama Underperforms Party ID
The Cocktoasten Times ^ | 11/03/2008 | John L Cocktoasten

Posted on 11/03/2008 5:32:52 PM PST by johncocktoasten

First a few facts about Nevada Voter Registration and the Electorate:

In 2004, Republicans had a registered voter advantage of 4500 voters in Nevada over Democrats. The raw numbers, 429808 Dems 434239 Reps, out of a total of 107101 registered, active voters.

At the close of registrations, Democrats have a 100,500 registered voter advantage in Nevada. Raw numbers 531223 Dems 430432 Reps out of a total of 1207423 Registered Active Voters.

With early voting finished, 561,625 Nevadans cast early ballots, 46.51% of the registered active voter pool. Most of the voters in Nevada are concentrated in Washoe and Clark Counties, home to Reno and Las Vegas respectively. Jim Gerharty at NRO has been communicating with Steve Nathan, who is a pollster in Nevada. Nathan has completed a canvass of 16,749 early voters in Nevada which we will be referencing in a minute.

First of all, voter registration ID in the state breaks down as follows:

Democrats 44%

Republicans 35.6%

Independents 15.2%

Third Party 5.2%

On a county by county basis, if the early votes are weighted by the voter registration of the county, the early vote party ID weighting should be:

Democrats 44.2%

Republicans 36.6%

Independents 16.2%

Third Party 2.87% Per Nathan's exit poll (see below)

In the exit poll of 16,749 early voters, Nathan found his exit polling results breaking down as follows:

Obama- 51.63%

McCain- 45.51%

Third Party- 2.87%

McCain down 6.1% in early voting, time to jump off the building right? Wrong. Here the actual reports of the Voter ID turnout in Clark and Washoe counties in early voting:

Clark County

Democrats 51.9% Republicans 30.6% Independents 17.4%

Washoe County

Democrats 47.1% Republicans 35.3% Independents 17.5%

These two counties represent 87.85% of the early votes cast. They represent 86.65% of the registered voters in the state.

If we add in the remaining counties proportionally by their voter registration percentages, the statewide voter ID for early voting is as follows:

Democrat 48.65% Republican 33.6% Independent 16.96% (Dems +12.05%)

Actual Exit Poll Results so Far

Obama 51.63% McCain 45.51% Others 2.87% (Dem +6.2%)

I would note that there are a little over 44000 absentee ballots that have been received back in Clark County with Republicans holding a 3500 ballot edge over Dems. Overall, estimates are a total of 88000 absentees statewide.

Based on the party ID weight of the Early Vote, the voter pool that can vote on election day is as follows:

557798 total voters

219570 Dems (39.36%) 194746 Reps (34.9%) 106867 Ind (19.15%)

Awarding absentees by the same ratio as the candidates perform relative to their party weight in the early vote exit polls, the 88000 absentees vote count comes down this way:

McCain 53248

Obama 34752

Aggregate vote estimates for each candidate for early and absentee voting:

Obama 289966 early votes + 34752 absentee = 324718 (49.98%)

McCain 255595 early votes + 53248 absentee = 308843 (47.53%)

Assuming a statewide turnout of 82% for Nevada, which is not unusual (2004 turnout was 77.45%) the number of votes tomorrow will be 340407 with a much lower party ID edge for Dems.

McCain is only behind by 15875.

He needs to win the expected vote tomorrow as follows:

McCain- 178266 52.3%

Obama- 162266 47.7%

That is absolutely do-able. Republicans and Independents just need to show up and VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!!!

TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Nevada; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: election; nevada; polls
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1 posted on 11/03/2008 5:32:56 PM PST by johncocktoasten
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To: johncocktoasten

Interestingly enough, Obama’s nevada campaign manager died of a massive heart attack yesterday.

2 posted on 11/03/2008 5:36:08 PM PST by cripplecreek (Paying taxes for bank bailouts is apparently the patriotic thing to do. [/sarc])
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To: johncocktoasten

WHew! That was exhausting but I hope you are right.

3 posted on 11/03/2008 5:36:16 PM PST by Cathy
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To: johncocktoasten

One of the biggest secrets the democraps dont want you to know is that DEMOCRAP turnout is a CONSTANT in every elections. They always get the same percentage, over and over.

So it is REPUBLICAN TURNOUT that decides the result. I saw a stunning set of data that supported this


And drive to Ohio too where there is free-for-all voting!

4 posted on 11/03/2008 5:37:47 PM PST by Mr. K (Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants don't help)
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To: johncocktoasten

Don’t forget to factor in that Dems are more likely to fillout an exit poll questionnaire than Republicans.

This 6.1% Obama lead in early voting may be overstated by 2-3 points.

5 posted on 11/03/2008 5:38:57 PM PST by Onerom99
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To: cripplecreek

Folks, this the THIRD state now - Nevada, Texas and Florida that show many more democrats voted than Obama got votes. There is a large crossover of democrats voting McCain. This trend will continue.

6 posted on 11/03/2008 5:40:33 PM PST by jrooney (I am not voting for Spread the Wealth/Senator Government. I am voting for the War Hero and Baracuda.)
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To: cripplecreek

But most of the RATs are Kali commie transplants.

7 posted on 11/03/2008 5:42:12 PM PST by Waco ( G00d bye 0'bombers)
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To: All

MSM will call it for Obama ASAP tomorrow in an attempt to suppress the turnout.

Turn off your TV tomorrow and vote.

8 posted on 11/03/2008 5:42:55 PM PST by Rodney Dangerfield ("Obama Girl" will soon need consoling. I'll take one for the team & volunteer.)
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To: johncocktoasten

Good analysis John. Now the question is who turns out tomorrow.

9 posted on 11/03/2008 5:44:25 PM PST by jwalsh07 (It's the Marxism Stupid!)
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To: Rodney Dangerfield

No doubt! Remember 2004!

10 posted on 11/03/2008 5:45:09 PM PST by Ladysmith
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To: johncocktoasten

Nice work John. I’m quite anxious about tomorrow. We all need to get out and vote: McCain/Palin

11 posted on 11/03/2008 5:49:17 PM PST by beethoven
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To: johncocktoasten

Excellent analysis.

12 posted on 11/03/2008 5:53:23 PM PST by jveritas
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To: TitansAFC; meandog; onyx; MARTIAL MONK; GulfBreeze; Kuksool; freespirited; Salvation; furquhart; ...
The McCain List.

Good news! If McCain holds the five core states in which he is tied or slightly ahead - OH, FL, MO, IN, NC - all he has to do is win VA and CO, or PA, along with Nevada.

13 posted on 11/03/2008 5:54:31 PM PST by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Norman Bates

Great news!

14 posted on 11/03/2008 5:56:20 PM PST by 1035rep
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To: johncocktoasten
A huge conservative turnout will make the difference in a close election. IGNORE THE MEDIA. GO OUT AND VOTE!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

15 posted on 11/03/2008 5:56:52 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: johncocktoasten

Do any of these so called exit polls ever state how many voters REFUSED to answer —and how the number this year stacks up with previous years

16 posted on 11/03/2008 5:59:08 PM PST by uncbob (es wouold realize that but iguess their arrogance)
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To: goldstategop

Great analysis but boy this is going to take a big-time effort to overcome Obozo on what you are putting down. Not that it’s impossible, but these are sketchy assumptions. I’m not a big fan of exit polling either. Still, where there’s a will the Maverick finds a way. Nevadans do your part and vote Maverick- I don’t want to blame your state if we come up short.

17 posted on 11/03/2008 6:01:57 PM PST by GerardKempf (Let's Get Over This)
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To: jrooney

Or, as the dead Peter Jennings would say, “Voters are having a temper tantrum.”

Or, as the AP would say, “Racists made McCain win the Presidency”.

18 posted on 11/03/2008 6:06:30 PM PST by mabelkitty (If Bush was an illegitimate President, Obama is the ILLEGAL candidate by Acorn and citizenship)
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To: 1035rep

I am PRAYING this is true!

19 posted on 11/03/2008 6:07:15 PM PST by kimchi lover (Joe the Plumber is my Homeboy!)
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To: johncocktoasten
Ok, well, a little fiddling with the numbers says this = a McCain lead, although it was never stated (that I could find) what % of Dems voted for Obama and what % of Republicans voted for McCain.

If McCain gets 92% of GOP votes (pretty high, but not excessive) and Obama gets 88% of Dem votes, then giving the other guy the difference (McCain 12% Dems; Obama 8% GOP---which based on other early voting is probably 2% too high, [itself = to 3,000 votes]), and splitting the indies at 51/49 McCain you get a slight McCain win.

Obviously, you can play with these numbers a lot. And obviously, the biggest gain comes when you have a Dem voter voting for McCain, because that adds one to his pile and takes one away from the Obama pile. I don't have a clue how the indies will go, but my estimate seems really low.

20 posted on 11/03/2008 6:25:54 PM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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