Toast - Why Obama Will Lose and the Political Analysts Will Be Destroyed

seanmaelstrom.wordpress.com ^ | Nov 3, 2008 | seanmalstrom

[LibertyUSAmerica]

I’ve checked my email, and I have over a hundred new messages. And I can’t get to anything resorting to ‘Sean Malstrom’ due to real life situations. Luckily I changed my career gears long ago. But my old profession of political analysis is going to be absolutely destroyed. I still think McCain will win the election and do so by a larger margin than Bush did in 2004. When this happens, a hurricane of outrage will be unleashed at the political analysis business, mostly the pollsters. People will demand to know how they could be so off. In other words, the future of the political analysis business will be destroyed as their reputation will become destroyed in the upcoming days.

[Jabba the Nutt]

They are trying to depress Republican turnout with the Obama is inevitable talking point.

They screwed this plan with their outrageous attacks on Sarah Palin. And their attacks on Joe the Plumber. And their banning of reporters from papers that endorsed McCain. And their continual attacks on the People, saying only racists vote against Obama.

They've managed to p*ss off tens and tens of millions of people.

[Boucheau]

“every single pro-Maccain post is either a vanity, blog or no name pundit”

Oh, really?

Well, go find an MSM post to suckle on.

I like to hear from the “no-name” pundits and bloggers.

So many anti-vanity elites about these days.

I can go to any political site on the web if all I wanted was big name punditry. I come here for the exact thing you seem to despise.

FReep on!

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Palin is appealing to conservatives due to the ‘fire in the belly’ where she is expressing what conservatives want, what they wished their conservative politicians would say and fight back against, in their perception, is a hostile media to them. Palin does not articulate conservative philosophy in her speeches as she appears more populist. Palin is not a female Reagan, but a Truman in a skirt. I’ve been reading much on Truman lately, and I’ve been struck with the similarities. Truman was an ardent outdoorsman, one from a small town and related extremely well with the rural population. Taft, among others, thought Truman was below them and kept referring to him as ‘filth’ and a ‘redneck’. Famously, Truman alone believed he would win his election when everyone else said he wouldn’t and traveled across the country visiting various farms and other small towns. The reporters traveling with Truman noticed that everywhere he went, there were large crowds. The electorate referred to Truman more by his first name, ‘Harry’, with the common phrase of ‘Give em Hell, Harry!’ Truman was not a wordsmith, but he had a fire in his belly and, most of all, his speeches held warmth. At every stop, Truman praised the rural people there and often talked about something in the locality. Truman, by his biographers, is most remembered for his constant energy, how his appearance was always ‘fresh’, how he always looked ‘rested’, and appeared in high spirits most of the time. Truman was constantly made fun of by his rural pronounciation and his non-intellectual demeanor by the press, yet those things endeared him to the rural electorate. In all my life, I have never seen a Vice Presidential nominee out-pull the Presidential nominee or steal his spotlight.

Solidly nailed my own reason for (VERY reluctantly) voting for *ugghh* McCain this year, right there: Sarah!!!

[top 2 toe red]

Did someone force you to stop and read this or something?

No, I didn't think so...take your pissy attitude and go read the crap articles the MSM are printing, that should make you happy.

[FastCoyote]

Wow, I so want to believe this analysis! Very smart guy.

One thing that struck me is his claim that union folk in Pa will not poll as McCain supporters in fear of their union bosses - strikes me as true.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

Dang good analysis. Tomorrow will prove if he’s right or wrong, but I am betting he’s right.

[doesnt suffer fools gladly]

Fascinating analysis.

[y2gordo]

“One thing I must comment on; he says that foreign policy/defense conservatives have McCain and social conservatives turn to Palin but economic conservatives don’t have a figure in this race. Yes they do-his name is Obama.”

No, THEIR name is the House Republicans.

[cherry]

" PUMAs in Pennslyvania." "Harriet and Betty Jean are back from the airport. They were turned down at the rally for McCain because there wasn’t room. So they high tailed it to the airport with their signs in the hope they could see him. They saw McCain’s car drive onto the tarmac and were despondent when the car headed away from them. Then, the car abruptly turned around and John McCain leapt out of the car and he ran over to the group with a huge smile on his face. Cindy and Joe Lieberman quickly followed. Betty Jean said McCain was quicker than the Secret Service who had to run to keep up with him. McCain thanked them enthusiastically and hugged Betty Jean. It made her day."

very telling......very telling....

that is why I am thinking this guy is SPOT ON!

[y2gordo]

I think his best point is where he talks about this election no longer being a referendum on Obama but a referendum on socialism. The fierce public comment against the bailout bill shows that.

[Vanders9]

Hes wrong about political analysis being destroyed though.

Think on it. The results come in and the political analysts are found to be way out on their polls (a quite likely scenario). Now if you are a political analyst there are only two reasons for that happening. Either 1) you and the rest of your kind screwed up, big time or 2) McCain and the Republicans have rigged the elections or cheated in some way.

Now, given that it is their careers and livelihoods, what would Human nature dictate would be the explanation Political analysts would go for?

[ChowChowFace]

Insightful analysis. Thanks for posting it.

[Luke21]

He has some good ideas, but he can’t spell.

[RetiredArmy]

So, since McCain is toast, I assume you will either, one, vote for O-scum-a tomorrow to jump on the band wagon, or two, go fishing for three weeks.

[Fresh Wind]

2) McCain and the Republicans have rigged the elections or cheated in some way.

EXACTLY! If McCain wins (Lord, let it be so), the wacky polling will serve as very necessary cover for the Rats to start launch their long-planned lawsuit offensive claiming Republican "vote fraud" on the supposition that not all of the polls could possibly be wrong. That will also be cover for the pollsters themselves, as they can claim that they were right all along, but the Republican vote fraud hid that fact.

All of this, of course, will also serve to deflect attention away from the very real Rat vote fraud being perpetrated through ACORN.

[Snurple]

That was a long read but well worth it. He is absolutely right on all points. Look for a very loooong election day as the media will refuse to believe what they are seeing. PA will be called for obummer early by as many as 20 points then they will say its to close to call... in the end Mc/Palin will carry the state. Mc/Palin will win with around 300 EV’s and obumer will be delegated to the realm of obscurity where he has always belonged. Good bye and KMA B Obama.

[YellowDawg]

I haven’t watched, read or listened to any MSM for over a week.

As somewhat of an analogy to how this election has been covered, I think of how the media covered recent high-profile trials and how they selectively reported/spun the evidence to convince us of their predetermined verdict. Yet 12 people who were actually in the courtroom and heard first hand the evidence, to the pundits’ shock/dismay, voted a verdict opposite to that of the media.

It doesn’t matter whether you, listening to and believing the talking heads, disagreed with the jurors. What matters is that THE TALKING HEADS had no clue what the actual result would be.

Only we, the voters, will deliver the verdict in this election. I am a yellow-dog Democrat who has never voted other than a straight Democratic ticket. I will join the 5% or so of AAs who will vote for McCain/Palin. I know other Democrats will do the same; I just don’t know how many.

[Nipfan]

Wonderful analysis. It was a pleasure to read and did a good job of calming me down after the welter of news reports which simply assumed an Obama victory.

I just hope he’s right.

[RJR_fan]

Thanks. Worth readiang.

[AndyTheBear]

every single pro-Maccain post is either a vanity, blog or no name pundit

I'm not much of a McCain fan, and I don't think the author of this blog is either (I will be voting for Sarah Barracuda, and against Obama and Biden...while McCain just happens to be some baggage that comes with Sarah).

I will grant the author seems to quite in favor of a McCain victory and has a very optimistic take on McCain's chances of winning. However, he backs up his view with some arguments that are at least plausible. And the overall quality of the blog seems superior to most journalism now-a-days.

It will be interesting to see how close his predictions are...