Skip to comments.McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS (Don't let exit polls make you stay home!)
Posted on 11/03/2008 11:24:13 PM PST by Sun
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the medias own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidates support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.
Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:
1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.
2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.
3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.
4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.
5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.
Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.
We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.
The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.
So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.
The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35. Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.
Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesdays exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.
It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.
Don't let the liberal "news" media get you to stay home, and remind your friends (& e-mail lists) of what they do, as well.
Toast - Why Obama Will Lose and the Political Analysts Will Be Destroyed
McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228 (Thanks to the PUMAs)
I just want to see the look on the pollster's face.
Cheers and GO SARAH!
The media is counting on calling the election by 9pm.
Disenfranchising voters in every time zone west of Eastern.
Keep your radio off, and VOTE. No excuses.
Well, if I were to be exit polled (it's never happened to me, but I suspect that it's at least a distant possibility today for various reasons), I'd tell the truth and give strong support for Senator McCain and Governor Palin.
The media is in the tank for Obama. Even if you give a positive opinion for McCain, it's going to be disregarded. You are assuming a fair fight when it's not anywhere close to fair. We are dealing with the socialist movement, not traditional American values.
So have some fun while you can. Me? I'm turning off the media tonight. Anyone who wants to keep their sanity should do the same. Cheers!
I am well aware of the media's disgraceful behavior.
However, I refuse to hand them on a silver platter anything that will delight them when they leak their early poll results.
Over that decade, I'd say that the MSM was only right about 10% of the time, although the last time was the elections of 2006, so who knows. Either way, this is a huge test. We shall see.
One thing I know for SURE, no matter WHO wins, Conservatives will NOT be rioting in the streets..
I respect your decision and hope we’re both celebrating tomorrow...
Thanx for the encouraging news!
Moose stew for dinner bump!