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Battleground Poll Projection: Obama 50.2 Percent, McCain 48.3 Percent
NRO - The Campaign Spot ^ | Nov. 4th, 2008 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 11/04/2008 7:00:32 AM PST by Bell407Pilot

This is very interesting, considering the generally pro-Obama bump in most of the final polls. The final poll of Tarrance Battleground is 49-44, but when they allocate the undecideds, their prediction is... 50.2 percent Obama, 48.3 percent Obama, .9 percent Barr, .6 percent Nader.

I think the McCain folks would prefer that to most of the other projections. It would mean that my projection from last night overestimated Obama.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: mccain; mccainpalin; poll; polls
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1 posted on 11/04/2008 7:00:33 AM PST by Bell407Pilot
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To: Bell407Pilot

I’m so sick of these stupid polls..And anyone that believes in them is very gullible...


2 posted on 11/04/2008 7:03:35 AM PST by angelcindy ("If you follow the crowd,you get no further than the crowd")
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To: Bell407Pilot

Regis and Kelly did an online poll of those that had voted and 54% voted for mccain.


3 posted on 11/04/2008 7:03:55 AM PST by RummyChick
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: Bell407Pilot

we’re back baby. With this number, all the swing states should swing our way.


5 posted on 11/04/2008 7:05:01 AM PST by Ravi
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To: Bell407Pilot

When you look at their “final projections” of prior presidential elections, they have nailed it EVERY time.


6 posted on 11/04/2008 7:05:15 AM PST by Murp
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To: Bell407Pilot

we’re back baby. With this number, all the swing states should swing our way.


7 posted on 11/04/2008 7:05:40 AM PST by Ravi
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To: Bell407Pilot

The election won’t be decided until all the fraudulent Obama ACORN votes are thrown out.


8 posted on 11/04/2008 7:06:39 AM PST by 1Old Pro (Obamarx wants Redistributive Reparations)
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To: Bell407Pilot
I'll take it... this is where we want to be. As long as we're within a point or two we can do it. And turnout will make the difference. GO AND VOTE TODAY!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

9 posted on 11/04/2008 7:07:13 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Murp; All; LS

I believe their internals have been a consistent Dem +5 or +6. ONCE AGAIN, OBAMA UNDERPERFORMS PARTY ID ADVANTAGE BY 4-6%.

I am telling you, if conservatives show up, we will win!!!! And it sounds to me like conservatives are showing up.

Call Call Call!!!!


10 posted on 11/04/2008 7:08:02 AM PST by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
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To: Ravi

And we are celebrating this because...?????


11 posted on 11/04/2008 7:08:21 AM PST by Greek
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To: Bell407Pilot
Whoa ... undecideds breaking for McCain 4:1!!! Within the M.O.E.!!


12 posted on 11/04/2008 7:10:41 AM PST by The G Man (The NY Times did "great harm to the United States" - President George W. Bush 6/26/06)
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To: The G Man

Keep an eye on PHILI...already cheating going on there.


13 posted on 11/04/2008 7:12:19 AM PST by Blue Turtle (I)
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To: Greek

just talked to obama supporter who failed to register. yea!!!!


14 posted on 11/04/2008 7:13:11 AM PST by dalebert
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To: Bell407Pilot

So if 1% said they were voting for Obummer, but they lied, like I did when polled,...

...then it’s really McCain 49.3 to Obummer at 49.2.

Sweet!


15 posted on 11/04/2008 7:13:50 AM PST by proudpapa (McCain - Palin'08)
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To: Bell407Pilot

“50.2 percent Obama, 48.3 percent Obama”

98.5 obama.. was this done by cbs?


16 posted on 11/04/2008 7:14:25 AM PST by outlawjake
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To: Greek
And we are celebrating this because...?????

If we turn out, we will win.

17 posted on 11/04/2008 7:14:37 AM PST by FreeReign
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To: goldstategop

and if these numbers aren’t taking into account the PUMA factor then this thing is doable.


18 posted on 11/04/2008 7:14:44 AM PST by rvoitier
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To: Greek

we are celebrating because we are going to win.


19 posted on 11/04/2008 7:14:51 AM PST by fortheDeclaration (AMERICANS-PREPARE FOR GLORY!)
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To: Greek
And we are celebrating this because...?????

A popular vote differential of 0.86% means that the electoral college remains very much in play.

20 posted on 11/04/2008 7:14:51 AM PST by wideawake (Why is it that those who like to be called Constitutionalists know the least about the Constitution?)
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To: Bell407Pilot
50.2 percent Obama, 48.3 percent Obama, .9 percent Barr, .6 percent Nader.

Wow! Obama is almost ties with Obama!

21 posted on 11/04/2008 7:16:07 AM PST by Edgerunner (Second Amendment Spoken Here)
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To: Bell407Pilot

I voted in a traditionally Republican District (Bucks County, north of Philly). There were only Obama signs out at the polling place, not a single McCain/Palin sign, some Republicans for Murphy (who is a doofus), no Republicans. Some people wore Obama gear, no one showed any sign of support for McCain/Palin. When people walked around with sample ballots, many more took the dem ballots. There was an Obama Poll Watcher there, no one for the Republicans. It’s like the Republican party had dropped off the face of the earth. My husband (a democrat who voted a straight Republican ticket this time) and I left very, very discouraged. It was as though I had gone to sleep and had awakened decades later to a strange, new land. My only hope is that all the people dressed for work there voted for McCain and weren’t the type to wear their votes on their sleeves. And I’m sure there were some of those.

I wrote an email to the County Republican Party with my thoughts about their absence.


22 posted on 11/04/2008 7:19:02 AM PST by twigs
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To: goldstategop

“I think the McCain folks would prefer that to most of the other projections. It would mean that my projection from last night overestimated Obama.”

Obama overestimated Obama.


23 posted on 11/04/2008 7:19:57 AM PST by redstateconfidential ("Go to the mattresses")
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To: johncocktoasten
Yep. While IBD/TIPP crushed my spirits this morning, this poll has reversed that emotion because it is a reputable group, indeed, I believe it was Rove's polling outfit for W.

That said, I have noticed and appreciated your posts on the 0ne's underperformance in the latter primaries which will be, I think, repeated today. Perhaps even moreso with the PUMAs and democrats that are just plain afraid of Obama. Time will tell...

24 posted on 11/04/2008 7:21:48 AM PST by eureka! (Hey mushy middle: Who is Barrack 0bama? Wait until you learn the answer. It's not pretty.)
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To: twigs

That is discouraging PA news though reports from other parts of the country are more upbeat.

Last time the exits showed Kerry up 60-40 in PA and he won by only 51-49. I fear this year’s polls are going to show an 0bama edge of something like 70-30.


25 posted on 11/04/2008 7:23:39 AM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: LS
Ping!

Tarrance group sensing huge 11th hour undecided shift to McCain.

26 posted on 11/04/2008 7:27:08 AM PST by The G Man (The NY Times did "great harm to the United States" - President George W. Bush 6/26/06)
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To: TNCMAXQ

I hope you’re right about reports from other areas being more upbeat. I can use all the good news I can hear. It was the most discouraging voting experience of my lifetime.


27 posted on 11/04/2008 7:28:53 AM PST by twigs
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To: twigs
When people walked around with sample ballots, many more took the dem ballots.

Why would there be a dem versus Republican ballot in a general election?

28 posted on 11/04/2008 7:30:21 AM PST by Carlucci (The Electoral Surge is Working!)
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To: angelcindy

They are all wrong of course. The actually results will be a little bit different.


29 posted on 11/04/2008 7:30:52 AM PST by HoustonTech
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To: dalebert
just talked to obama supporter who failed to register. yea!!!!

The big question is did he vote anyway?

30 posted on 11/04/2008 7:32:28 AM PST by HoustonTech
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To: HoustonTech

I remember they all had john kerry leading in the polls...and electoral votes..they were wrong...


31 posted on 11/04/2008 7:33:56 AM PST by angelcindy ("If you follow the crowd,you get no further than the crowd")
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To: twigs

There should not be a “dem” ballot and a “repub” ballot.


32 posted on 11/04/2008 7:34:13 AM PST by jennyjenny
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To: TNCMAXQ
That is anecdotal
33 posted on 11/04/2008 7:35:43 AM PST by snarkytart
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To: Bell407Pilot

Long time dittohead reader and first time poster...

Just want to share my fears that this will probably be the beginning of the end of the America I love, by the hands of the islamo-fascists Manchurian candidate Hussein.

I fear for the fragmentation of conservative movement after this day...

Dark years ahead indeed. I pray with all my might for this nation to see the light and the great gift that was given to us in the person of Sarah Palin.


34 posted on 11/04/2008 7:37:07 AM PST by freerapubic
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To: twigs

I grew up in Doylestown. I went back after 20 years, sure isn’t what it used to be! Nothing but libs.....women holding hands downtown, made me sick.


35 posted on 11/04/2008 7:40:03 AM PST by SoCalConservative
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To: freerapubic
Welcome to FR, Mister my-first-ever-post-is-full-of-doom-and-gloom!
36 posted on 11/04/2008 7:40:32 AM PST by The G Man (The NY Times did "great harm to the United States" - President George W. Bush 6/26/06)
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To: Carlucci; jennyjenny

Sorry. I misspoke. Dem sample ballots, paper, to use in the actual voting machine.


37 posted on 11/04/2008 7:42:11 AM PST by twigs
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To: TitansAFC; meandog; onyx; MARTIAL MONK; GulfBreeze; Kuksool; freespirited; Salvation; furquhart; ...
The McCain List.

Battleground places the final projection at a less than 2% spread.

We can win this!!!

38 posted on 11/04/2008 7:42:15 AM PST by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Carlucci

“Why would there be a dem versus Republican ballot in a general election?”


Good question. It was probably campaign literature. http://www.BlackJFK.com


39 posted on 11/04/2008 7:42:30 AM PST by publius321
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To: SoCalConservative

That’s the area. We live outside of Doylestown. It is turning very liberal.


40 posted on 11/04/2008 7:43:30 AM PST by twigs
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To: Bell407Pilot

This works for me. We don’t need the damn popular vote, just the EC. Pray hard that PA voters heard the Obama plans to bankrupt the coal industry and will, instead of reflexively kneeling at the liberal throne, stand up this time and help us to victory.


41 posted on 11/04/2008 7:45:24 AM PST by ScottinVA
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To: Greek
And we are celebrating this because...?????

Roughly estimating, Obama at +5% in popularity, nationally, would indicate a tight race in electoral votes. Obama < +5% in popularity, nationally, would probably indicate an electoral vote advantage to McCain, because Obama has a great popular advantage in CA, NY and IL, which are already in his corner.

42 posted on 11/04/2008 7:46:42 AM PST by Aquinasfan (When you find "Sola Scriptura" in the Bible, let me know)
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To: publius321
It was probably campaign literature.

Correct. I'm the idiot here. This could be a long day!

43 posted on 11/04/2008 7:47:14 AM PST by twigs
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To: Bell407Pilot; P-Marlowe; Corin Stormhands; enat

And if you take out the huge populations of Calif and New York which are terribly propagandized so that huge numbers of BOTH dems and reps will be voting for Obama, you have the race tilted toward McCain.

And since this is an electoral vote election and not a popular vote election, then McCain has a great chance of winning.

We weren’t expecting to win Calif or NY in any case.


44 posted on 11/04/2008 7:49:25 AM PST by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain Pro Deo et Patria)
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To: Norman Bates

“The McCain List.

Battleground places the final projection at a less than 2% spread.

We can win this!!!”


YES WE CAN! The Obamanites may have shot their load during early elections. The attention was turned upon them by the media to discourage us. It isn’t over. http://www.BlackJFK.com


45 posted on 11/04/2008 7:51:04 AM PST by publius321
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To: xzins
"And if you take out the huge populations of Calif and New York ..."

Not to mention Illinois. Let folks come out in droves in LA, NYC, and Chicago ... it won't change a thing (it only inflates the national numbers ... which don't mean crap)

46 posted on 11/04/2008 7:52:41 AM PST by The G Man (The NY Times did "great harm to the United States" - President George W. Bush 6/26/06)
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To: angelcindy
"I’m so sick of these stupid polls..And anyone that believes in them is very gullible..."

I heard a poll this morning that you'll like. While driving back to work after voting here in Houston, Texas I was listening to a radio station called the 'Buzz' which is an alternative rock station that caters to the 18-34 year old demographic. They were conducting a poll via text messaging from their listeners on who they voted for. The result: McCain 65%, Obama 32%.

47 posted on 11/04/2008 7:54:05 AM PST by avacado
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To: avacado

Texas is usually a red state...Yea 4 Texas!!!! i always thought of Texas as the sleeping giant....


48 posted on 11/04/2008 7:59:03 AM PST by angelcindy ("If you follow the crowd,you get no further than the crowd")
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Comment #49 Removed by Moderator

To: RummyChick

Guys, most of the other polls showed a bump for Obama and loss for McCain.

The night of the election, that is not a good sign.

That said, they could still be way, way off.


50 posted on 11/04/2008 8:00:17 AM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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