Posted on 11/04/2008 7:00:32 AM PST by Bell407Pilot
This is very interesting, considering the generally pro-Obama bump in most of the final polls. The final poll of Tarrance Battleground is 49-44, but when they allocate the undecideds, their prediction is... 50.2 percent Obama, 48.3 percent Obama, .9 percent Barr, .6 percent Nader.
I think the McCain folks would prefer that to most of the other projections. It would mean that my projection from last night overestimated Obama.
This works for me. We don’t need the damn popular vote, just the EC. Pray hard that PA voters heard the Obama plans to bankrupt the coal industry and will, instead of reflexively kneeling at the liberal throne, stand up this time and help us to victory.
Roughly estimating, Obama at +5% in popularity, nationally, would indicate a tight race in electoral votes. Obama < +5% in popularity, nationally, would probably indicate an electoral vote advantage to McCain, because Obama has a great popular advantage in CA, NY and IL, which are already in his corner.
Correct. I'm the idiot here. This could be a long day!
And if you take out the huge populations of Calif and New York which are terribly propagandized so that huge numbers of BOTH dems and reps will be voting for Obama, you have the race tilted toward McCain.
And since this is an electoral vote election and not a popular vote election, then McCain has a great chance of winning.
We weren’t expecting to win Calif or NY in any case.
“The McCain List.
Battleground places the final projection at a less than 2% spread.
We can win this!!!”
Not to mention Illinois. Let folks come out in droves in LA, NYC, and Chicago ... it won't change a thing (it only inflates the national numbers ... which don't mean crap)
I heard a poll this morning that you'll like. While driving back to work after voting here in Houston, Texas I was listening to a radio station called the 'Buzz' which is an alternative rock station that caters to the 18-34 year old demographic. They were conducting a poll via text messaging from their listeners on who they voted for. The result: McCain 65%, Obama 32%.
Texas is usually a red state...Yea 4 Texas!!!! i always thought of Texas as the sleeping giant....
Guys, most of the other polls showed a bump for Obama and loss for McCain.
The night of the election, that is not a good sign.
That said, they could still be way, way off.
Welcome to Free Republic, Zot Bait!
FWIW,
6 AM line at my precinct was unprecedented. Couldn’t gauge the tenor of my fellow voters, but in a state so clearly in Obama’s camp, my gut tells me there were more people coming out to vote AGAINST Obama, than voting for him.
Granted, that won’t in any way change the outcome in Illinois, but if this attitude is emerging elsewhere, I think all bets are off.
The popular voter differential is 1.9%
ok, that makes sense. Throw out CA and NY, and you are left with a McCain win on the popular vote...thanks
Good Catch - looks like it’s a lock.
I voted this morning in Warren County, OH (25 miles north of Cincinnati). One of the reddest of red Ohio counties. The lines were unprecedented. Easily 5x as many folks there when the polls opened than in 2004. GOP turnout is through the roof.
Sure. Using their special sauce that purposely over samples ‘Rats, under samples Pubs, predicts a huge youth turnout (which early voting polls are not showing), ignores the Palin effect, ignores the cohesion that has occurred among conservatives and any number of other factors, they come up with a squeaker for Obama.
The issue for national polls will always remain that we have a state-by-state election and not a national election.
Some have calculated that there could be a 4% disparity between the popular vote winner and an electoral vote winner.
If you have high population states that are ALSO highly skewed to one candidate, then that phenomenon would influence the popular vote total, and thus any national poll, while not increasing one bit that state’s number of electoral votes. EVERYONE in California could vote for Obama, but he’d still get only their 53(?) EVs and not one more nor one less.
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