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Electoral College Update
Rasmussen ^ | November 4, 2008 | staff

Posted on 11/04/2008 9:24:18 AM PST by gandalftb

Electoral college in play.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; electoralcollege; polls
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Rasmussen does a nice job here of laying out the steps to victory.

McCain has to flip PA and carry VA and FL and OH.

For PA poll projections, check out: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2124481/posts?q=1&;page=1#1

Bottom line, no FL, no chance, with FL and VA, a chance, with FL, VA, and PA, McCain wins, no doubt.

1 posted on 11/04/2008 9:24:19 AM PST by gandalftb
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To: gandalftb

Did you notice they don’t have Michigan in the safe column for Nobama?


2 posted on 11/04/2008 9:26:21 AM PST by Unkosified (What do Osama and Obama have in common? They both have friends that bombed the Pentagon.)
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To: gandalftb

McCain doesn’t need PA to win. But Obama does.


3 posted on 11/04/2008 9:26:46 AM PST by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: gandalftb

Did you notice they don’t have Michigan in the safe column for Nobama? Just “likely Dem”.


4 posted on 11/04/2008 9:27:17 AM PST by Unkosified (What do Osama and Obama have in common? They both have friends that bombed the Pentagon.)
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To: Unkosified
Did you notice they don’t have Michigan in the safe column for Nobama?

Which is ridiculous. WI, MN, IA, PA, IN and OH are all competitive. But MI is safe for the Obamessiah!?? ROTFL!!

5 posted on 11/04/2008 9:28:05 AM PST by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: impeachedrapist

I agree. He has a good shot if he takes PA or OH, but definitely gets it if he needs both. CA is going to give Obama 1/5 of what he needs, but he still needs PA.


6 posted on 11/04/2008 9:29:34 AM PST by Phoenix11
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To: gandalftb
McCain has to flip PA and carry VA and FL and OH.

if McCain carries VA, FL and OH, why must he flip PA?

7 posted on 11/04/2008 9:29:43 AM PST by latina4dubya ( self-proclaimed tequila snob)
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To: impeachedrapist

I agree. He has a good shot if he takes PA or OH, but definitely gets it if he wins both. CA is going to give Obama 1/5 of what he needs, but he still needs PA.


8 posted on 11/04/2008 9:29:47 AM PST by Phoenix11
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To: impeachedrapist

But MI is safe for the Obamessiah!?

>
No. It’s not in the safe column. Michigan is very blue, but they’re not counting it safe after polls show O up there by as much as 16 points in some polls.???

What’s up with that?


9 posted on 11/04/2008 9:30:42 AM PST by Unkosified (What do Osama and Obama have in common? They both have friends that bombed the Pentagon.)
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To: latina4dubya

I think because it assumes that McCain won’t carry CO, NM or NV.


10 posted on 11/04/2008 9:32:21 AM PST by mainepatsfan
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To: Unkosified

Forget about MI. It’s hopeless here with the thugs from Detroit and the thugs from the UAW. We have some of the most crooked idiotic Dem politicians in the world, but they win every time. The fraud in Detroit is probably as bad as in Philly.


11 posted on 11/04/2008 9:32:27 AM PST by Tigercap (If 0bama had the experience of Palin, he too might be qualified to run for VP of the USA)
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To: Phoenix11

PA is the contingency route to victory for McCain. It allows him to lose VA or CO, IA and a few other states if they don’t materialize in the GOP column.

PA is also critical to not be “called” until midnight or thereafter so as to not adversely affect voting in western time zones.

Is anyone else finding FR to be really slow today?


12 posted on 11/04/2008 9:33:02 AM PST by mwl8787
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To: Unkosified
Sorry, I misread your post. MI is up for grabs, leaning Dem, definitely not a safe state for The One. Public polls also showed the Obamessiah leading in PA by double digits, and in IA by double digits. Yet both campaigns continued expending resources and making visits there. What does that tell you about the public polls?
13 posted on 11/04/2008 9:34:15 AM PST by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: Tigercap

I know. I live in Mich. I just think it’s strange that they don’t think it’s a safe bet for O.

This entire campaign, no one has indicated that Michigan would go anything but blue.


14 posted on 11/04/2008 9:35:11 AM PST by Unkosified (What do Osama and Obama have in common? They both have friends that bombed the Pentagon.)
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To: latina4dubya

Because he is bleeding New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and probably Virginia.


15 posted on 11/04/2008 9:39:25 AM PST by Reagan79 (Ralph Stanley & The Clinch Mountain Boys)
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To: latina4dubya

Because he is bleeding New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and probably Virginia.


16 posted on 11/04/2008 9:40:43 AM PST by Reagan79 (Ralph Stanley & The Clinch Mountain Boys)
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To: gandalftb
I can tell you the turn out in Alabama is very heavy. What does that mean? Its just possibly a very good sign that the Conservative base is COMING TO THE POLLS. If its happening here, in a safe state for McCain/Palin, you can bet its happening all over the country. Some I talked to say they haven't seen this level of participation since 1980. At my poll, out in the county, it was quick and easy. In and out in 5 minutes. As the poll worker flipped through the roster to highlight my name to show I had voted, about 30% of the names had already been highlighted, and this was at 10 AM.

Win one for the Gipper!

17 posted on 11/04/2008 9:40:55 AM PST by 1-Eagle (Teach Conservative Values To Our Families Every Day)
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To: latina4dubya
In case CO and NV go Obama.

Here's the problem, the polls in the East close first and some fool will start braying about an Obama landslide and scare off the McCain voters out west thinking about voting after supper, late in the day, but what's the use, why vote, etc..

18 posted on 11/04/2008 9:42:15 AM PST by gandalftb (America's highest office.....Patriot)
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To: impeachedrapist
The polls report days late and McCain is having an unprecedented upswing.

PA poll analysis and projection:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2124481/posts?q=1&;page=1#1

19 posted on 11/04/2008 9:45:37 AM PST by gandalftb (America's highest office.....Patriot)
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To: gandalftb

NJ “Likely DEM”!?!?


20 posted on 11/04/2008 9:46:03 AM PST by frogjerk (Palin's record is on the record, while whole years of Obama's life are engulfed in fog - T. Sowell)
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To: mwl8787
Is anyone else finding FR to be really slow today?

Yes. By tonight it will probably be unusable. I understood they had made some upgrades but if this morning is any indication it will be so slow that it will drive me buggy. It's too bad because today, tonight, and tomorrow are the most important days of the year and I can't stomach the thought of listening to the MSM report results.

21 posted on 11/04/2008 9:46:54 AM PST by johniegrad (Free Republic Powerhouse)
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To: gandalftb

If Mac wins PA and NH, then I think the Upper Midwest is in play and I also think OH and VA are locks for him.

Pennsylvania is a great test case of the bitter clinger+PUMA strength versus the urban+black+college vote strength. If it looks like small town voters plus disaffected Democrats are carrying Mac in PA, then I think that same formula will hold true throughout the rest of the Rust Belt and the Upper Midwest.

Obama has basically ignored the rural voters and dissed them when he’s had the chance. Naturally, the GOP nominates a former small town mayor and the Dems and their masters on the liberal-left spend the remainder of the campaign denigrating her as a small town rube hick. Probably not the wisest strategy, as will be shown today, IMO.


22 posted on 11/04/2008 9:48:33 AM PST by Harry Wurzbach (Joe The Plumber & Rep. Thaddeus McCotter are my heroes.)
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To: johniegrad
...and I can't stomach the thought of listening to the MSM report attempt to influence results.

There, fixed it for ya.
23 posted on 11/04/2008 9:50:19 AM PST by Army Air Corps (Four fried chickens and a coke)
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To: Army Air Corps

I hope that coal story has resonated with the good folks in Pa and OH.


24 posted on 11/04/2008 9:53:05 AM PST by Trust but Verify ( All others Palin comparison!!!)
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To: mwl8787

the coal people are mad,them and the people and businesses they support,,VA,Co,PA are coal states,,just sayin


25 posted on 11/04/2008 9:57:26 AM PST by coalman (type to slow to be relevant,but I try)
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To: gandalftb
Here's the problem, the polls in the East close first and some fool will start braying about an Obama landslide and scare off the McCain voters out west thinking about voting after supper, late in the day, but what's the use, why vote, etc..

I understand your concern there because I have the same concern. My gut tells me that with a highly motivated base, it won't work this time.

26 posted on 11/04/2008 10:03:28 AM PST by wolf24 ("It's always easy to rally the stupid.")
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To: wolf24; gandalftb

They tried to suppress conservative turnout in 2000 (calling FL, PA and MI early for Gore), and were likely at least somewhat successful. They tried again in 2004 (exit polling showing a big Kerry win) and failed miserably. Let ‘em try again today.


27 posted on 11/04/2008 10:11:42 AM PST by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: impeachedrapist
MI is up for grabs, leaning Dem, definitely not a safe state for The One.

25% of the Dems (about 40 including relatives and work associates) I communicate with (in Michigan) an a regular basis are voting for McCain. Six of the 10 are voting for a Republican president for the 1st time in their lives. I find this personal info remarkable. I am personally stunned by some of them.

28 posted on 11/04/2008 10:12:58 AM PST by PGalt
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To: frogjerk
NJ “Likely DEM”!?!?

Yeah, pretty funny. Kind of like saying, "Surface of the sun: likely warm".

29 posted on 11/04/2008 10:21:25 AM PST by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell)
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To: latina4dubya

“if McCain carries VA, FL and OH, why must he flip PA?”

—i think this assumes mccain loses NV and CO


30 posted on 11/04/2008 10:22:40 AM PST by zwerni (*** PALIN/mccain 2008 ***)
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To: gandalftb

re: Electoral College Update ...

Still 0-0?


31 posted on 11/04/2008 10:25:39 AM PST by green iguana
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To: zwerni

I keep hearing it comes down to Indiana and VA.


32 posted on 11/04/2008 10:26:45 AM PST by JFC
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To: Sicon
Surface of the sun: likely warm".

LOL! Good one. I see no way for Mccain to take either NJ or Pa, and I have strong roots in Pa.

33 posted on 11/04/2008 10:32:16 AM PST by bill1952 (Obama-the only one who can make me vote McCain McCain-the only one who can make me stay at home)
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To: gandalftb
McCain has more then a good chance to get to 272 without VA (again they're trying to exclude our fighting men and women... OOOOORRRRAAAA!).

Here's my prediction - let's see if I can embed from Flickr

Electoral map forecast

34 posted on 11/04/2008 10:33:27 AM PST by uncommonsense
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To: 1-Eagle
Here in Huntsville, AL they say that the polls are taking anywhere from one hour to two hours to vote. That is better than 1980 by a long shot. This is a very good sign here in Alabama that the Republicans are really stirred up.

I think that any gloom & doom coming out of the MSM is just old fashioned BULL puckies!!!!

I won't get to vote until late today over in Decatur,AL. I hope that the lines will be shorter then.

We love Sarah here in Alabama.

35 posted on 11/04/2008 10:38:53 AM PST by Southron Patriot (Deo Vindice)
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To: latina4dubya

To offset the fact that he’s going to lose Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia, and possibly North Carolina as well.


36 posted on 11/04/2008 10:42:38 AM PST by steve-b (Intelligent design is to evolutionary biology what socialism is to free-market economics.)
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To: mwl8787

It was initially very slow but has improved slightly


37 posted on 11/04/2008 10:43:47 AM PST by Rebelrose
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To: gandalftb
Bottom line, no FL, no chance, with FL and VA, a chance, with FL, VA, and PA, McCain wins, no doubt.

Unless he loses Ohio.

38 posted on 11/04/2008 10:44:29 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: PGalt
25% of the Dems (about 40 including relatives and work associates) I communicate with (in Michigan) an a regular basis are voting for McCain.

"How could Nixon have won? Nobody I know voted for him...."

39 posted on 11/04/2008 10:45:35 AM PST by steve-b (Intelligent design is to evolutionary biology what socialism is to free-market economics.)
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To: bill1952
I'm hoping he can take PA, because of the "bitter clingers" comment, the "bankrupting the coal industry" remark, and of course, ol' Haditha Murtha's "racist rednecks" comments.

But NJ is definitely a lost cause, although I must admit to being pleasantly surprised to see a sudden blossoming of McCain/Palin signs on my drive to work this morning, outnumbering the Obama/Biden signs by a good 3 or 4 to 1 margin.

40 posted on 11/04/2008 10:45:35 AM PST by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell)
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To: latina4dubya
if McCain carries VA, FL and OH, why must he flip PA?

If McCain later loses CO, he's lost. O 273, M 265. Only if he flips PA, is it insurance in case he loses CO or even NV (less likely). If he gets PA in addition, it's Mac 281, Obama 257 even with losing NV, CO, and NM.

41 posted on 11/04/2008 10:52:45 AM PST by Yaelle (McCain chose torture over selling out his country. Obama would have lasted one minute.)
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To: mwl8787
Is anyone else finding FR to be really slow today?

DEADLY slow and we have FIOS at top speed. I suppose it will be worse tonight.

42 posted on 11/04/2008 10:54:15 AM PST by Yaelle (McCain chose torture over selling out his country. Obama would have lasted one minute.)
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To: uncommonsense

Yours is one of the scenarios I’ve played with. There is one correction though — some people say that if we do get PA, that we will definitely get VA too. I am not sure of that but other people tell me it’s so.


43 posted on 11/04/2008 11:00:06 AM PST by Yaelle (McCain chose torture over selling out his country. Obama would have lasted one minute.)
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To: Tigercap
The fraud in Detroit is probably as bad as in Philly.

Detroit has only 9% of your population, dude.

The population of Detroit was 29% of MI in 1950, and is down to 9% as of 2000 (probably lower now).

You'll have to come up with a different excuse. "Waah waah Detroit" just doesn't cut it.

44 posted on 11/04/2008 11:00:34 AM PST by Jim Noble (I have read a fiery gospel, writ in burnished rows of steel)
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To: gandalftb

Electoral Votes:

535 for McCain.

3 for Obama . . . DC singing the blues.

That’s my prediction. It ain’t over til it’s over and I am the fat lady who hasn’t sung yet.


45 posted on 11/04/2008 11:12:38 AM PST by HighlyOpinionated (All You Need is Money [Soros] and a Candidate Who Can Be Coached to Look Sincere [Obama]. A. Huxley)
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To: Yaelle
There is one correction though — some people say that if we do get PA, that we will definitely get VA too. I am not sure of that but other people tell me it’s so.

Long lines here in VA with LOTS of black folks. I'd say the line I was in might have been 60% or more black. Many of them very young.

46 posted on 11/04/2008 11:14:50 AM PST by BubbaBasher (www.HypocriteLibs.org - Tracking the Slandering Liars in the MSM)
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To: Jim Noble

Detroit Metropolitan is over 5,000,000. The entire state of MI is 10,000,000.

Detroit-Metro = gangsters and UAW.

Philly Metro (in PA) is also around 5,000,000. The entire state of PA is 12,000,000.

So, I’d say Detroit affects its state more than Philly.


47 posted on 11/04/2008 11:34:38 AM PST by Tigercap (If 0bama had the experience of Palin, he too might be qualified to run for VP of the USA)
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To: gandalftb
November 4, 2008

Majority Say Reporters Tried To Help Obama

Palin More Popular With GOP Voters Than McCain

59% Expect Obama to Win

Is Obama Swiping the Tax Cut Issue? By Lawrence Kudlow

Bankrupt with the Facts - By Debra J. Saunders

Helping the Right 'Homeowners' By Froma Harrop

November 3, 2008

McCain Posts One-Point Lead in North Carolina

McCain 50%, Obama 49% in Florida

Presidential Race Tightens in Missouri

McCain and Obama Tied in Ohio

Obama Still Leads by Four in Virginia

Obama Holds Four-Point Lead in Colorado

Obama Leads by 15 in the Garden State

One-Third of Obama Voters Plan To Be Out Tomorrow

November 2, 2008

Illinois: Obama 60% McCain 38%

Maine: Obama 56% McCain 43%

Maine Senate: Collins 57% Allen 41%

The Unexpected Campaign Season That Was: A Commentary by Debra Saunders

November 1, 2008

McCain Ahead by Nine in South Dakota

New Rasmussen Reports Partisan Weighting Targets: 39.9% Democrat 33.4% Republican

Obama 54%, McCain 42% in Oregon

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls

Obama Leads By Four in Pennsylvania

48 posted on 11/04/2008 11:49:52 AM PST by smokingfrog ( God doesn't wear a wristwatch.)
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To: smokingfrog
oops

Most Recent Releases

49 posted on 11/04/2008 11:55:05 AM PST by smokingfrog ( God doesn't wear a wristwatch.)
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To: uncommonsense

Wild. I got the exact same numbers but with a couple different states. Here’s hoping....


50 posted on 11/04/2008 3:06:13 PM PST by Ophiucus
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