Skip to comments.How does CNN make election projections?
Posted on 11/04/2008 8:26:50 PM PST by PghBaldy
CNN) -- To project elections, CNN and its election experts use scientific statistical procedures to make estimates of the final vote count in each race. CNN will broadcast a projected winner only after an extensive review of data from a number of sources.
CNN editorial policy strictly prohibits reporting winners or characterizing the outcome of a statewide contest in any state before all the polls are scheduled to close in every precinct in that state.
CNN will receive information from the following sources:
The Associated Press: The Associated Press will provide vote totals for each race. The AP will be gathering numbers via stringers based in each county or other jurisdiction where votes are tabulated.
Edison Media Research: To assist CNN in collecting and evaluating this information, CNN, the other television networks and The Associated Press have employed Edison Media Research (EMR). In previous elections, this firm has assisted CNN in projecting winners in state and national races. EMR will conduct exit polls, which ask voters their opinion on a variety of relevant issues, determine how they voted, and ask a number of demographic questions to allow analysis of voting patterns by group.
Using exit poll results, scientifically selected representative precincts, vote results from The AP, and a number of sophisticated analysis techniques, EMR also recommends projections of a winner for each race it covers.
The process of projecting races begins by creating a sample of precincts. The precincts are selected by random chance, like a lottery, and every precinct in the state has an equal chance to be in the sample. They are not bellwether precincts or "key" precincts. Each one does not mirror the vote in a state but the sample collectively does.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Screw CNN & all the people that work there.
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