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McCain/Obama Line graph trends by Polster vs actuals
Mindspring.com ^
| November 5, 2008
| hk
Posted on 11/05/2008 9:33:28 AM PST by HK Ball
This includes final polls up through yesterday, and horizontal lines added indicating actual vote percentages for McCain and Obama.
TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bho2008; election; mccain; pivotal; poll; polling; polls; pollsters
1
posted on
11/05/2008 9:33:28 AM PST
by
HK Ball
To: HK Ball
2
posted on
11/05/2008 9:41:18 AM PST
by
Islander7
(This Atlas is shrugging! ~ I am Joe!)
To: HK Ball
ping...
Twas the perception of the financial crisis, money, and being black.
3
posted on
11/05/2008 9:41:19 AM PST
by
Rick_Michael
(Have no fear "Senator Government" is here)
To: Rick_Michael
So McCain over-performed everything except the USA Today and the Rassmusen.
4
posted on
11/05/2008 9:45:03 AM PST
by
Callahan
To: HK Ball
Here’s the lesson: Rasmussen was RIGHT.
To: Norman Bates
Here's another lesson: Gallup and Zogby were wrong.
6
posted on
11/05/2008 9:48:53 AM PST
by
FredZarguna
(Oh No! Not THE Kathleen Parker.)
To: Islander7
Would be interesting to see IBD-Tipp alongside, and to understand why Rassmussen got it right.
7
posted on
11/05/2008 9:52:06 AM PST
by
bigbob
To: Norman Bates
Yep, Rasmussen was nearly dead on in almost all the swing states in 2004 as well. He isn’t perfect, but I trust his polls far more than any of the others.
To: FredZarguna
Yep. Pew was right as well. IBD/TIPP was close. Battleground was close but had it somewhat tighter.
To: Islander7
What would make these graphs really interesting is a band around the track, showing the margin of error. We could tell at a glance from that whose models were bad.
10
posted on
11/05/2008 10:03:57 AM PST
by
FredZarguna
(PA: 11 points isn't a "field goal." Who was McCain's pollster?)
To: Norman Bates
Here’s the lesson: Rasmussen was RIGHT.
Nope, you're wrong.
Rasmussen was only right for less than a week.
The polls were once again used to shape opinion.
That is the lesson.
11
posted on
11/05/2008 10:31:37 AM PST
by
SoConPubbie
(GOP: If you reward bad behavior all you get is more bad behavior.)
To: HK Ball
Are the numbers that this was graphed from available?
I went to start spot-checking this, and the first Gallup numbers I looked at don't seem to match the graph in the original posting.
For instance, Gallup published two methodology numbers based on likely voters, the traditional and the expanded. They each looked like this according to Gallup on October 28:
The final Gallup graphs looked like this:
These don't superficially appear to me to be the same numbers in the Gallup graph in the original posting for the same dates.
It would be useful to have the data that the original postings graphs were based on so that we could see where the apparent discrepancy is coming from.
12
posted on
11/05/2008 11:13:25 PM PST
by
snowsislander
(NRA -- join today! 1-877-NRA-2000)
To: snowsislander
... I'm sure your numbers are right, snow, I have been keeping a Wiki page for about a year, using the data they have been accumulating, and there have been some distortions ... very liberal community, those wiki boys, they deleted my page at one point ... here's the page, for what it's worth ...
Wiki Page ^
13
posted on
11/06/2008 7:11:16 AM PST
by
HK Ball
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