Skip to comments.Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election
Posted on 11/05/2008 9:55:06 PM PST by Para-Ord.45
On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)** 1. Pew (10/29-11/1)** 2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1) 3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27) 4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)* 5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)* 5. ARG (10/25-27)* 6. CNN (10/30-11/1) 6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1) 7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3) 8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27) 9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2) 10. FOX (11/1-2) 11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27) 12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3) 13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2) 14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2) 15. Marist College (11/3) 16. CBS (10/31-11/2) 17. Gallup (10/31-11/2) 18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3) 19. CBS/Times (10/25-29) 20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
What were they predicting 1 month, 3 weeks, 2 weeks, 1 week out?
I think we learned that the polling in the Internet age is very sophisticated.
The deal is that it was pretty darn accurate.
And, if there was voting fraud....chase it, and enforce it. Kinda late now.........
OK, eggheads, what is the ACORN factor? +6, +8, +18?
Nice comeback for Rasmussen after some busts in the primaries and 2004 miss.
No surprise to see Mr. Special Sauce, John Zogby on the bottom along with the always laughable Newsweek.
It`s the ACORN factor PLUS Democrat SoS Brunner in Ohio !
I’d say it is the McCain factor.
“And, if there was voting fraud....chase it, and enforce it. Kinda late now......... “
There is another election in 739 days. WE MUST ELIMINATE THE VOTING FRAUD OR DEMOCRATS WILL RUN THE TABLE!!!
oh yeah, forgot the McCain suppress the base factor
“What were they predicting 1 month, 3 weeks, 2 weeks, 1 week out?”
Very similar amounts when you average the polls together. A lot of folks on here were very quick to somehow spin an Obama+6 average into something that meant little and part some giant conspiracy. Many posters even predicted McCain landslides up until election day. If you questioned the idea of him getting well over 300 they’d attack you.
Some of the mental gymnastics were impressive. Some posters could take an Obama +6 poll and use fancy math to make it look like McCain was up. “If we change the percentage of young voters to this, change party ID numbers to this, change how we weight blacks, etc, etc we have McCain by 19 in California!, etc” There was a lot of wishful thinking and funny math going on.
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com was pretty accurate, even under estimated the result.
no words needed
aside from the outliers at 12 and 15 points
the RCP averages were pretty close
and that crazy 20% they kept telling us where the internals showed 15-20% of respondents calling themselves conservatives and still supporting Obama
i thought that was nuts just like everyone
well, shucks, that is exactly how it showed in the exit polls, apparently 15-20% of those polled really did think they were conservatibe and did support and vote for Obama
the polls from 2000 on have been unsettling fairly close even though we all hoped they weren’t
I admitted worrying about it and got some big doses of freeper love for my efforts
people were so emotional they would claim anything and deny any precedence staring them in the face..
but don’t worry, next election the same folks will be back to tell us all how the polls are all lies again
FR at election time is a zoo of near psychotic delusion...all meant well and for a good cause of course
“but dont worry, next election the same folks will be back to tell us all how the polls are all lies again”
What I never understood was the question of motive. Why would the pollsters be involved in some grand conspiracy? Even if they are lib (and with some of them we have no way of knowing) they have to strive for the mark. Miss it by too much too often and you go out of business and somebody else takes your place. Its how the market works. If the pollsters had been predicting Obama +7 and he lost the industry would implode and they’d all go under. Even if they were rooting for Obama I can assure you that they don’t want to put themselves out of business.
I’m pretty sure that in my eight years here that I had more invectives hurlked my way hourly by some freepers when I dared question the notions you just described.
don’t get me wrong, I thought the polls were probably off a bit too...maybe 3-5 points given the high Dem sampling but I never thought they were irrelevant or a grand conspiracy
and it turns out the Dem sampling was for a reason on likely voter polls, the friggin Dems did turnout much more in comparison to low GOP turnout
and folks would take one of the two polls in 2004 out of 17 that actually showed Kerry leading at election day and tout that as proof that “in 2004 they were wrong to...see? see?”
I was about ready to ask who took the damned strawberries around here..lol
but it’s all over now....and the nasty gnats will go back to being just a little snarly instead of nuts
i had one girl call me pissy when i said I was worried about the election....I have never been called pissy..lol...not in 50 years...it made me feel gay...lmao
in all seriousness though I saw some newbies come on and speak with trepedation about the election and get scalded so bad I bet they won’t ever be back
one hapless freeper claimed Mccain was in trouble about 7PM CST election nite and got slammed so hard you woulda thought he said Magnus really did dye his hair after all
yep....FR is pretty touchy feely around elections when it looks bad for us and the customary denial sets in
This thread is perfect evidence of why... because they are held accountable for only one poll - the last one.
So even though Pew had Obama +16 polls for the final weeks, they are labeled “acurrate” because they issued a +6 poll at the last minute. Same with CBS and many others.
The lesson is to watch Rasmussen. These other polls are all over the place, and I think a lot of it is for manipulation purposes. Rasmussen polling is very much steady as she shows, which is more reflective of reality than Pew/Zogby/Gallup/CBS polling with 10 point shifts in just days.
“and folks would take one of the two polls in 2004 out of 17 that actually showed Kerry leading at election day and tout that as proof that in 2004 they were wrong to...see? see?”
The cherry picking was impressive. We also saw that with the one day Zogby sample from a three day poll. Never mind we’ve lost a hundred and fifty or so straight and most by 5+. Those don’t matter. This subset of a poll from one of the less accurate guys proves we must be winning!
Its started in fact already after this one. I saw some people using the fact that a couple polls were bad outliers as proof that the polls don’t matter. They ignored the fact that the averages were spot on. It was pretty mind-boggling to see it already starting a day after the disaster.
I was told the same in 2008 but was skeptical of my fellow Freepers.
In 2010 I'll believe the polls!
“This thread is perfect evidence of why... because they are held accountable for only one poll - the last one.”
You are cherrypicking though. I don’t pay attention to one poll. I pay attention to the average. The industry average stayed pretty constant. There was no gigantic move at the last second.
Look at the RCP averages. No big swing period.
I pay attention to polls, not averages.
A better method than averaging may be a median so outliers on both ends get tossed.
I hope no one listens to Zogby/Newsweek/CBS again after this election.
My point is that deluding yourself is a pointless process. A lot of people took a “see no evil, hear no evil” position. Whats the point? Know where you stand and keep fighting regardless. Being down doesn’t mean the race is over. It means you are down. No point in pretending that things are any different.
“I hope no one listens to Zogby/Newsweek/CBS again after this election.”
He should be out of business.
I can still remember at the end of September when the markets tanked and the bank crisis took off and watching Sean, Newt, Rassmussen, and Rove on H&C and seeing the dismay in their faces as we watched Mac’s post convention-Palin nomination lead fall of the cliff
Sean, Rove and Newt looked like someone had taken their toys and Rass looked dumbfounded
I knew then that things must be not so great and that sense I got everyday after that watching GOP pundits talk gave me the same bad feeling....they tried to rally everybody but even with Rush you could hear it in his voice.
Course, round here I was pilloried for even mentioning that GOP folks at ground zero of all this data looked worried.
But you know what? I still continued to give big bucks to National GOP Trust even though I was pessimistic....I felt i had to try.
Next time around these dreamers will have little credibility here but they will still try and shout everyone down..
It’s scary how the polls are, I wish they didn’t have the damned things.
Newsweek - no surprise.
Zogby - the guy is a joke.
Gallup - no longer a mainstream poll.
Well you know what, keeping your chin up and dreaming is part of the process. Can you imagine if McCain and Palin had just decided “oh what the heck, we’ll never catch these guys” and then just went through the motions in the final two weeks rather than campaign hard? The route would have been uglier, and pulled us down in scores of congressional races.
I must confess that I was sucked into that party ID thing. There just was no historical precedent for such a severe party ID drop off so quickly. The GOP has basically fallen back to 1970’s level party ID numbers from parity in just a few years. Wow.
I’m sorry Chet. You just posted the polls. I don’t include you in the bullybunch
Some here went way beyond just chin up into outright boorishness and defiance of continuous objective proof put right under their very noses that refuted their zany claims
like I’ve said before, continuing to struggle and even to give big bucks is a sign of more character than just shouting down everyone and slinging false accusation right and left and wishing a fantasy come true
I can and will prove to the dozen or so folks here who know me personally how I continued to participate in this election all of October while even though very concerned and somewhat less than optimistic after the late September polls crashed, I ask any of the bullies to pony up with proof of what they did besides bully
it was perfectly reasonable here during the month of September to say we were in trouble and needed to gin up turnout and donations for campaign ads and yes to speculate that maybe the polls weren’t off as much as some here insisted...and to challenge cherry picked polls
lots of otherwise decent looking newbies who might well have been potential freepers took the the hills after getting smacked around here
myself, I’ve been here a long time....survived a one year banning over amnesty...I’m used to it
but i ain’t fergetting
there is nothing gained when FR become a shout down echo chamber
I mean, damn man...the battleground Red state fights were proof enough we were fighting uphill
anyhow, now we get to fight for control of the GOP...a fight far more bloody to be sure than the election squabbles we had here
and about damned time too ain’t it?
we are either gonna be conservative or be the new Whigs.
I also donated up until the end.
I agree that there was just some plain craziness on here toward the end, with supposed “internal poll” leaks showing the race tied in California.
I kind of knew the whole internal poll thing was something of a smoke screen anyway when McCain’s pollster said their internals showed the races in battlegrounds to be a “functional tie”, which he later defined to be within the margin of error.
As for the direction of the party, wow.. what might that be? No one can seem to agree on that, what with social cons, fiscal cons, neocons, Green Granola Cons... a big tent at each other’s throat. The various contradictions held together during the 80’s, united in response to the soviet threat, in the 90’s united in response to Clintonism, and 2000s in response to the War on Terror/Iraq. Now, there is nothing to unify the various factions. And some factions just want to run the others out of the party entirely. The Dems seem to do better as a party of contradictions and competing interests.
I confess to believing that if we averaged within 2-4 points final poll that we would win possibly.
I also never believed that conservative thing on the internals
and I thought Jews would go higher
and that there were PUMAs
and that Mac would carry Catholics
and that GOP would at least match 2004 turnout
but after Monday polls I was down....way down and told my dear wife who was pretty depsondent as well as other family members that I suspected what I had feared since late September was now going to happen
the eventual tightening just never really materialized, it feinted was all
man..watching polls 24-7 in this day and age ain’t fer sissies is it?
you’re right...we don’t even really have any big leaders except some older Senators, a few governors and some folks who talk to Fox News
there is no face aside from Palin now whom Im adore but can she recover?
Palin is great, but her brand has been tarnished. I also see that many conservatives in academia, professionals, etc., want one of their own, who speak their language. I see Bobby Jindal as a man who could pass that test while still being acceptable to the “base.”
He may be “the one”.
But if we remain the party of old farts, we’ll be in trouble. These things go in cycles... it wasnt so long ago that the GOP were the young upstarts and the Democrats were the crusted old guard (remember Dan Rostenkowski?).
I was another one who didn’t believe the polls. I was absolutely fanatical about reading the “the polls are wrong and heres why” threads. I just wanted to believe so bad.
I didn’t believe the polls this time, mostly because a lot of you FReepers told me not to, but certain talk show hosts also downplayed them.
I was dreamin’. I’ll believe them next time.
Dear Para-Ord.45, you forgot President Bush’s failures and low rating. McCain, the new Goldwater, could have never won. He lost, but he fought as an hero.
What’s this? A cluster of MSM polls at the bottom of the list? And granddaddy Gallup? LOL!
that is fine but some here basically called anyone who questioned that as Sons of Satan and trolls etc