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Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election
ttp://www.fordham.edu ^ | November 5, 2008 | Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D.

Posted on 11/05/2008 9:55:06 PM PST by Para-Ord.45

On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)** 1. Pew (10/29-11/1)** 2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1) 3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27) 4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)* 5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)* 5. ARG (10/25-27)* 6. CNN (10/30-11/1) 6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1) 7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3) 8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27) 9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2) 10. FOX (11/1-2) 11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27) 12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3) 13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2) 14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2) 15. Marist College (11/3) 16. CBS (10/31-11/2) 17. Gallup (10/31-11/2) 18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3) 19. CBS/Times (10/25-29) 20. Newsweek (10/22-23)


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; bho2008; mccain; obama

1 posted on 11/05/2008 9:55:06 PM PST by Para-Ord.45
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To: Para-Ord.45

What were they predicting 1 month, 3 weeks, 2 weeks, 1 week out?


2 posted on 11/05/2008 9:57:38 PM PST by ethical
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...........whatever.

I think we learned that the polling in the Internet age is very sophisticated.

The deal is that it was pretty darn accurate.

And, if there was voting fraud....chase it, and enforce it. Kinda late now.........

3 posted on 11/05/2008 9:58:38 PM PST by NoRedTape
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To: Para-Ord.45

OK, eggheads, what is the ACORN factor? +6, +8, +18?


4 posted on 11/05/2008 9:58:59 PM PST by Rembrandt (We would have won Viet Nam w/o Dim interference.)
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To: Para-Ord.45

Nice comeback for Rasmussen after some busts in the primaries and 2004 miss.

No surprise to see Mr. Special Sauce, John Zogby on the bottom along with the always laughable Newsweek.


5 posted on 11/05/2008 10:00:15 PM PST by Patrick1
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To: Rembrandt

It`s the ACORN factor PLUS Democrat SoS Brunner in Ohio !


6 posted on 11/05/2008 10:00:29 PM PST by Para-Ord.45
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To: Para-Ord.45

I’d say it is the McCain factor.


7 posted on 11/05/2008 10:01:09 PM PST by Patrick1
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To: NoRedTape

“And, if there was voting fraud....chase it, and enforce it. Kinda late now......... “

There is another election in 739 days. WE MUST ELIMINATE THE VOTING FRAUD OR DEMOCRATS WILL RUN THE TABLE!!!


8 posted on 11/05/2008 10:01:38 PM PST by Rembrandt (We would have won Viet Nam w/o Dim interference.)
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To: Patrick1

oh yeah, forgot the McCain suppress the base factor


9 posted on 11/05/2008 10:02:09 PM PST by Para-Ord.45
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To: ethical

“What were they predicting 1 month, 3 weeks, 2 weeks, 1 week out?”

Very similar amounts when you average the polls together. A lot of folks on here were very quick to somehow spin an Obama+6 average into something that meant little and part some giant conspiracy. Many posters even predicted McCain landslides up until election day. If you questioned the idea of him getting well over 300 they’d attack you.

Some of the mental gymnastics were impressive. Some posters could take an Obama +6 poll and use fancy math to make it look like McCain was up. “If we change the percentage of young voters to this, change party ID numbers to this, change how we weight blacks, etc, etc we have McCain by 19 in California!, etc” There was a lot of wishful thinking and funny math going on.


10 posted on 11/05/2008 10:02:39 PM PST by DemonDeac
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To: NoRedTape

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com was pretty accurate, even under estimated the result.


11 posted on 11/05/2008 10:07:18 PM PST by Phreethinker
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To: Para-Ord.45

LOL

no words needed

aside from the outliers at 12 and 15 points

the RCP averages were pretty close

and that crazy 20% they kept telling us where the internals showed 15-20% of respondents calling themselves conservatives and still supporting Obama

i thought that was nuts just like everyone

well, shucks, that is exactly how it showed in the exit polls, apparently 15-20% of those polled really did think they were conservatibe and did support and vote for Obama

crazy

the polls from 2000 on have been unsettling fairly close even though we all hoped they weren’t

I admitted worrying about it and got some big doses of freeper love for my efforts

people were so emotional they would claim anything and deny any precedence staring them in the face..

but don’t worry, next election the same folks will be back to tell us all how the polls are all lies again

FR at election time is a zoo of near psychotic delusion...all meant well and for a good cause of course


12 posted on 11/05/2008 10:09:24 PM PST by wardaddy (I'm looking for a new Danelaw to move my family to...)
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To: wardaddy

“but don’t worry, next election the same folks will be back to tell us all how the polls are all lies again”

What I never understood was the question of motive. Why would the pollsters be involved in some grand conspiracy? Even if they are lib (and with some of them we have no way of knowing) they have to strive for the mark. Miss it by too much too often and you go out of business and somebody else takes your place. Its how the market works. If the pollsters had been predicting Obama +7 and he lost the industry would implode and they’d all go under. Even if they were rooting for Obama I can assure you that they don’t want to put themselves out of business.


13 posted on 11/05/2008 10:17:40 PM PST by DemonDeac
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To: DemonDeac

I’m pretty sure that in my eight years here that I had more invectives hurlked my way hourly by some freepers when I dared question the notions you just described.

don’t get me wrong, I thought the polls were probably off a bit too...maybe 3-5 points given the high Dem sampling but I never thought they were irrelevant or a grand conspiracy

and it turns out the Dem sampling was for a reason on likely voter polls, the friggin Dems did turnout much more in comparison to low GOP turnout

and folks would take one of the two polls in 2004 out of 17 that actually showed Kerry leading at election day and tout that as proof that “in 2004 they were wrong to...see? see?”

I was about ready to ask who took the damned strawberries around here..lol

but it’s all over now....and the nasty gnats will go back to being just a little snarly instead of nuts

i had one girl call me pissy when i said I was worried about the election....I have never been called pissy..lol...not in 50 years...it made me feel gay...lmao

in all seriousness though I saw some newbies come on and speak with trepedation about the election and get scalded so bad I bet they won’t ever be back

one hapless freeper claimed Mccain was in trouble about 7PM CST election nite and got slammed so hard you woulda thought he said Magnus really did dye his hair after all

yep....FR is pretty touchy feely around elections when it looks bad for us and the customary denial sets in


14 posted on 11/05/2008 10:20:31 PM PST by wardaddy (I'm looking for a new Danelaw to move my family to...)
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To: DemonDeac

This thread is perfect evidence of why... because they are held accountable for only one poll - the last one.

So even though Pew had Obama +16 polls for the final weeks, they are labeled “acurrate” because they issued a +6 poll at the last minute. Same with CBS and many others.

The lesson is to watch Rasmussen. These other polls are all over the place, and I think a lot of it is for manipulation purposes. Rasmussen polling is very much steady as she shows, which is more reflective of reality than Pew/Zogby/Gallup/CBS polling with 10 point shifts in just days.


15 posted on 11/05/2008 10:24:49 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: wardaddy

“and folks would take one of the two polls in 2004 out of 17 that actually showed Kerry leading at election day and tout that as proof that “in 2004 they were wrong to...see? see?””

The cherry picking was impressive. We also saw that with the one day Zogby sample from a three day poll. Never mind we’ve lost a hundred and fifty or so straight and most by 5+. Those don’t matter. This subset of a poll from one of the less accurate guys proves we must be winning!

Its started in fact already after this one. I saw some people using the fact that a couple polls were bad outliers as proof that the polls don’t matter. They ignored the fact that the averages were spot on. It was pretty mind-boggling to see it already starting a day after the disaster.


16 posted on 11/05/2008 10:27:07 PM PST by DemonDeac
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To: Para-Ord.45
I was told by fellow Freepers that the polls were garbage in 2006 and believed.

I was told the same in 2008 but was skeptical of my fellow Freepers.

In 2010 I'll believe the polls!

17 posted on 11/05/2008 10:29:32 PM PST by Doofer
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To: Chet 99

“This thread is perfect evidence of why... because they are held accountable for only one poll - the last one.”

You are cherrypicking though. I don’t pay attention to one poll. I pay attention to the average. The industry average stayed pretty constant. There was no gigantic move at the last second.

Look at the RCP averages. No big swing period.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html


18 posted on 11/05/2008 10:29:50 PM PST by DemonDeac
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To: DemonDeac

I pay attention to polls, not averages.

A better method than averaging may be a median so outliers on both ends get tossed.

I hope no one listens to Zogby/Newsweek/CBS again after this election.


19 posted on 11/05/2008 10:33:42 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: DemonDeac
and what's your point? see a bad poll and put up a white flag?


20 posted on 11/05/2008 10:35:20 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

My point is that deluding yourself is a pointless process. A lot of people took a “see no evil, hear no evil” position. Whats the point? Know where you stand and keep fighting regardless. Being down doesn’t mean the race is over. It means you are down. No point in pretending that things are any different.


21 posted on 11/05/2008 10:39:27 PM PST by DemonDeac
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To: Chet 99

“I hope no one listens to Zogby/Newsweek/CBS again after this election.”

He should be out of business.


22 posted on 11/05/2008 10:39:51 PM PST by DemonDeac
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To: DemonDeac

I can still remember at the end of September when the markets tanked and the bank crisis took off and watching Sean, Newt, Rassmussen, and Rove on H&C and seeing the dismay in their faces as we watched Mac’s post convention-Palin nomination lead fall of the cliff

Sean, Rove and Newt looked like someone had taken their toys and Rass looked dumbfounded

I knew then that things must be not so great and that sense I got everyday after that watching GOP pundits talk gave me the same bad feeling....they tried to rally everybody but even with Rush you could hear it in his voice.

Course, round here I was pilloried for even mentioning that GOP folks at ground zero of all this data looked worried.

But you know what? I still continued to give big bucks to National GOP Trust even though I was pessimistic....I felt i had to try.

Next time around these dreamers will have little credibility here but they will still try and shout everyone down..

It’s scary how the polls are, I wish they didn’t have the damned things.


23 posted on 11/05/2008 10:42:20 PM PST by wardaddy (I'm looking for a new Danelaw to move my family to...)
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To: Para-Ord.45

Newsweek - no surprise.
Zogby - the guy is a joke.
Gallup - no longer a mainstream poll.


24 posted on 11/05/2008 10:55:04 PM PST by jerry557
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To: wardaddy

Well you know what, keeping your chin up and dreaming is part of the process. Can you imagine if McCain and Palin had just decided “oh what the heck, we’ll never catch these guys” and then just went through the motions in the final two weeks rather than campaign hard? The route would have been uglier, and pulled us down in scores of congressional races.


25 posted on 11/05/2008 11:31:12 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: DemonDeac

I must confess that I was sucked into that party ID thing. There just was no historical precedent for such a severe party ID drop off so quickly. The GOP has basically fallen back to 1970’s level party ID numbers from parity in just a few years. Wow.


26 posted on 11/05/2008 11:33:08 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99; Travis McGee; Squantos; DemonDeac; WKB; Clemenza

I’m sorry Chet. You just posted the polls. I don’t include you in the bullybunch

Some here went way beyond just chin up into outright boorishness and defiance of continuous objective proof put right under their very noses that refuted their zany claims

like I’ve said before, continuing to struggle and even to give big bucks is a sign of more character than just shouting down everyone and slinging false accusation right and left and wishing a fantasy come true

I can and will prove to the dozen or so folks here who know me personally how I continued to participate in this election all of October while even though very concerned and somewhat less than optimistic after the late September polls crashed, I ask any of the bullies to pony up with proof of what they did besides bully

it was perfectly reasonable here during the month of September to say we were in trouble and needed to gin up turnout and donations for campaign ads and yes to speculate that maybe the polls weren’t off as much as some here insisted...and to challenge cherry picked polls

lots of otherwise decent looking newbies who might well have been potential freepers took the the hills after getting smacked around here

myself, I’ve been here a long time....survived a one year banning over amnesty...I’m used to it

but i ain’t fergetting

there is nothing gained when FR become a shout down echo chamber

I mean, damn man...the battleground Red state fights were proof enough we were fighting uphill

anyhow, now we get to fight for control of the GOP...a fight far more bloody to be sure than the election squabbles we had here

and about damned time too ain’t it?

we are either gonna be conservative or be the new Whigs.


27 posted on 11/05/2008 11:46:36 PM PST by wardaddy (I'm looking for a new Danelaw to move my family to...)
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To: wardaddy

I also donated up until the end.

I agree that there was just some plain craziness on here toward the end, with supposed “internal poll” leaks showing the race tied in California.

I kind of knew the whole internal poll thing was something of a smoke screen anyway when McCain’s pollster said their internals showed the races in battlegrounds to be a “functional tie”, which he later defined to be within the margin of error.

As for the direction of the party, wow.. what might that be? No one can seem to agree on that, what with social cons, fiscal cons, neocons, Green Granola Cons... a big tent at each other’s throat. The various contradictions held together during the 80’s, united in response to the soviet threat, in the 90’s united in response to Clintonism, and 2000s in response to the War on Terror/Iraq. Now, there is nothing to unify the various factions. And some factions just want to run the others out of the party entirely. The Dems seem to do better as a party of contradictions and competing interests.


28 posted on 11/06/2008 12:27:24 AM PST by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

I confess to believing that if we averaged within 2-4 points final poll that we would win possibly.

I also never believed that conservative thing on the internals

and I thought Jews would go higher

and that there were PUMAs

and that Mac would carry Catholics

and that GOP would at least match 2004 turnout

but after Monday polls I was down....way down and told my dear wife who was pretty depsondent as well as other family members that I suspected what I had feared since late September was now going to happen

the eventual tightening just never really materialized, it feinted was all

man..watching polls 24-7 in this day and age ain’t fer sissies is it?

you’re right...we don’t even really have any big leaders except some older Senators, a few governors and some folks who talk to Fox News

there is no face aside from Palin now whom Im adore but can she recover?


29 posted on 11/06/2008 12:36:28 AM PST by wardaddy (I'm looking for a new Danelaw to move my family to...)
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To: wardaddy

Palin is great, but her brand has been tarnished. I also see that many conservatives in academia, professionals, etc., want one of their own, who speak their language. I see Bobby Jindal as a man who could pass that test while still being acceptable to the “base.”

He may be “the one”.

But if we remain the party of old farts, we’ll be in trouble. These things go in cycles... it wasnt so long ago that the GOP were the young upstarts and the Democrats were the crusted old guard (remember Dan Rostenkowski?).


30 posted on 11/06/2008 12:44:11 AM PST by Chet 99
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To: wardaddy

I was another one who didn’t believe the polls. I was absolutely fanatical about reading the “the polls are wrong and heres why” threads. I just wanted to believe so bad.


31 posted on 11/06/2008 1:01:53 AM PST by beckysueb (Drill here! Drill now!)
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To: Para-Ord.45

I didn’t believe the polls this time, mostly because a lot of you FReepers told me not to, but certain talk show hosts also downplayed them.

I was dreamin’. I’ll believe them next time.


32 posted on 11/06/2008 1:04:56 AM PST by Yaelle
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To: Para-Ord.45; Chet 99

Dear Para-Ord.45, you forgot President Bush’s failures and low rating. McCain, the new Goldwater, could have never won. He lost, but he fought as an hero.


33 posted on 11/06/2008 2:22:29 AM PST by tomymind
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To: Para-Ord.45

What’s this? A cluster of MSM polls at the bottom of the list? And granddaddy Gallup? LOL!


34 posted on 11/06/2008 2:34:13 AM PST by Fresh Wind (Hey, Obama! Where's my check?)
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To: beckysueb

that is fine but some here basically called anyone who questioned that as Sons of Satan and trolls etc


35 posted on 11/06/2008 10:07:54 AM PST by wardaddy (I'm looking for a new Danelaw to move my family to...)
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To: Para-Ord.45

bmflr


36 posted on 11/06/2008 4:00:13 PM PST by Kevmo (Palin/Hunter 2012)
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