No undecided broke for Obama over Palin. That’s a joke.
Funny you should make that statement. I kept reading about people who’d said that disappointed Dems were voting for McCain “for the first time” and that desappointed Reps. were going to “hold their noses” and vote for McCain.
The “disappointeds” to whom I spoke all said they were staying home.
That's less than the 121 million who voted in 2004, despite the claims by many in the media that there would be an almost-unprecedented 65% turnout with definitely more than 130 million and probably 140 million votes cast.
Of the 120.5M, McCain got 6 million fewer votes than Bush did in 2004 and Obama got 5 million more votes than Kerry did in 2004.
Of those extra 5 million for Obama, it looks like 2.5 million came from net undecideds breaking for Obama and 2.5 million in new Democrat voters.
Of the 6 million less for McCain, about 2.5 million is accounted for by the net 2.5 million undecideds he lost and as many as 3.5 million Republicans staying home.
My undecided numbers are based on the polls saying that 11% were undecided going into the last week of the election - 11% of 120.5 is 13.25 million, with 60% breaking Obama and 40% breaking McCain, the 20% differential is about 2.5 million.
So two myths were shattered:
(1) On the left, the myth that turnout would be up 17% was completely wrong - so far the numbers say turnout was down slightly.
(2) On the right, the myth that Clinton voters would vote McCain in protest was completely wrong - Obama got almost the exact same percentage of Democrat voters that Kerry got.
Governor Palin energized the base, but not enough.
My final observation is that many GOP voters may have stayed home in states like mine (New Jersey) where they knew McCain had no shot at winning, while Democrats in states like mine were excited and motivated to run up the score for Obama even though the state results were a foregone conclusion.
In the key states that McCain lost but needed to take: FL, VA, NC, OH, IN he lost by an average of 2.5% of the vote, versus the 6.25% he lost by nationally. GOP turnout was not as depressed in those key states.