Skip to comments.Obama Will Overreach
Posted on 11/11/2008 3:49:37 AM PST by IbJensen
As polls just before the election showed Barack Obama winning, Dave Keene, president of the American Conservative Union, paid a visit to columnist Robert Novak at his home. His longtime friend was chuckling, and Keene asked him why.
Well, my Democratic friends think theyve died and gone to heaven, Novak said. If theyd been around as long as I have, theyd realize that it isnt heaven, and they dont have a permanent invitation to stay anyway.
In fact, Keene tells Newsmax, Obama did not win for the reasons he thinks he did, and he can be counted on to overreach, helping to return Republicans to power.
When it comes to astute political observers, Keene has few peers. A bulwark of the conservative movement, Keene has headed the American Conservative Union since 1984. With one million members, the ACU is the countrys oldest and largest conservative grassroots lobbying group. It runs the Conservative Political Action Committees (CPAC) annual conference in Washington and publishes an annual Rating of Congress, the gold standard for ideological assessments of members of Congress.
Keene notes that whenever Republicans lose, the press runs stories proclaiming the death of the party.
This is only the third time in a half century that a Democratic presidential candidate has gotten 50 percent of the vote, Keene says. The last two times were 1964 and 1976. And following those Democratic victories, there was in each case more than a spate of stories and analyses saying the Republican party was a thing of the past and that conservatism was dead.
Each time, Keene says, Republicans have picked themselves up and won major victories. This time, it will be more difficult because Democrats will try to rejigger the playing field. They are intent on passing so-called card check legislation, doing away with the secret ballot when employees decide whether to be represented by a union. If that legislation passes, unions will have a resurgence, and Democrats will garner more contributions.
The Democrats also want to restore the Fairness Doctrine, which would require broadcasters to give equal time to both conservatives and liberals. To date, few if any liberal talk shows have been commercially successful.
A fairness doctrine will help shut up their opponents and cut off conservative communication, Keene says. I think theyve concluded they cant necessarily win a debate on issues. What they have to do is shut up the enemy because their arguments too often prevail.
Democrats may also come up with an amnesty measure for illegal aliens.
That will bring them in and make them citizens to enlarge the Democrats electoral pool and voter pool, Keene says. I would not be surprised if there was a very early move to make the District of Columbia a state, giving it full representation in Congress. That would give the Democrats two more safe Democratic senators.
House Republicans also believe Democrats will move to change rules for considering legislation to make it harder for the minority party to influence bills.
Given human nature, Democrats can be counted on to overreach, Keene predicts.
In 1994, some reporter asked Newt Gingrich whether he thought the Democrats were more corrupt than Republicans, Keene recalls. He said no, but theyre human beings, and theyve been in power, and power corrupts. And he said the same thing could happen to Republicans, which it did more recently. You remove them and you start over. And you go back to basics and you retrieve your brand, put it together, and you come back. Thats happened before; itll happen again.
Moreover, Keene says, Winners always misread the reason for their victory. Winners always assume that voters voted for them for the reasons they wanted them to vote for them. They always assume that the voters were saying: Do what you want to do.
While Obama may be too smart to fall into that trap, The people around him and the pressure groups that exist as part of the Democratic base are going to say, okay, theyve rejected free markets, they want capital gains taxed more, they want to go after the rich, they want us to as Barney Frank says cut the defense budget by 25 percent. Well, Keene says, if they voted for those things, they did so without knowing that thats what they were voting for.
In part because of that tendency to misinterpret the reasons for their victory, politicians tend to overreach, Keene says.
Clinton overreached, Gingrich overreached, he says. And its one of the reasons why the pendulum starts to swing pretty quickly. Then if theyre there long enough, the kinds of things that happened to the Republicans and the Democrats for being in too long take hold. They become part of the problem rather than part of the solution.
The other reason the pendulum swings back quickly is that each party promises that theyre going to solve all your problems. Yet, a few years later, people say, God, I elected him, but Ive still got all these problems. Indeed, Keene was on National Public Radio when a caller said to him, I feel now that we can cure cancer, because Obama won.
Another problem for Obama is that he and his people really believe that theyve transformed the political landscape.
In fact, if you looked at exit polls and things, Obama ran, not as the socialist he may be and that McCain tried to describe him as, but as somebody that was opposed to national health insurance and ran saturation ads saying that he is the candidate most likely to cut your taxes, Keane says. And being a typical liberal, he doesnt like the war were in. He wants a different war in Afghanistan or Pakistan, which he wont like once he gets into it.
Rather than transforming the political landscape, Obama actually won yet another close election. Until the plunge in the market, John McCain was ahead in the polls.
So youre a voter out there who just lost a third of your pension fund and a quarter of your house value, Keene says. Itll all come back, but that is not the formula for a successful election. Yet they believed their own hype, and so do a lot of the Republicans, that there was going to be this huge turnout of new people that was going to swamp the Republicans.
In fact, Keene says, Young people didnt turn out in any great numbers. The absolute vote was up from last time on both sides, but its not the highest turnout. You know they were saying it was the highest turnout since 1908, well it wasnt true. Black turnout was higher, but only by a little bit.
Keene believes Obamas selection of Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff is a sign that Obama will govern from the left. As outlined in the Nov. 7 Newsmax article Rahm Emanuel Is the Real Pit Bull, the selection conflicts with Obamas claim in his election night speech that he wants to put aside the partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long.
If youre a unifier and a bridge builder, you dont hire Rahm Emanuel to build your bridge, Keene says. He after all is the guy who said Republicans can f--- themselves. And thats in his kinder moments.
Ronald Kessler is chief Washington correspondent of Newsmax.com.
As members of the party of death and communism, they'll have a permanent invitation to stay for an eternity in hell.
Obama knows perfectly well why he won. Cheating, lying, taking illegal contributions, silencing all questions...but I guess he really can't talk about that. And not to fear, there will be a lot more of it for the next 4 years.
I believe much of this is very true.
There are high expectations for Obama. Ones he cannot possibly meet. When he lets them all down AND they see his true agenda the pendullum will swing back to the right due to the disillusioned voters.
Obama really has no idea what he is in for since he has absolutely no experience and governing anything! He is going to have some major mis-steps. You just wait and see.
He will over reach because he believes the voters gave him a mandate to do as he pleased.
We’ll see how that works out for him...and unfortunately for us innocent bystanders.
It's difficult to see why due to the fact that this disreputable individual is totally devoid of content.
Our enemies have high hopes as do all the weasely domestic socialist numbskulls.
He is indeed stupid enough to think that he has been elevated to a throne.
What a dismal future for America when the spokesmen for freedom are people like Gingrich, McCain, etc.
You can see fear in his face in many of the photos taken since the election, particularly the ones taken as he exited his first top secret briefing. His face and body language show a man who bit off way more than he can chew.....
The problem now though, Mr. Keene, is that the demographics seem perpetually against conservatives. You should know that. It is not like 1977, as the Carterites were slowly exposed. It still took four years for the American people “to see”.
He has definitely had a, “Oh crap! What did I do look.” Plus, what happened to this “eloquent speaker” everyone has talked about. He gave my children a day of giggles over one of his speeches they came across while flipping channels.
The nickname "Stumpy O'Carter" comes to mind.
Can anyone post a couple of those pictures?
“While Obama may be too smart to fall into that trap,”
I keep seeing this sentiment. I haven’t seen any indication that it’s true. A bowlingball could have run for president in Obozo’s circumstances. For that matter a bowlingball could have been editor of the Harvard Review in his stead. Obama is intelligent but I believe he will prove in the next 18 mos, to the people who are too stupid to know it already, that he isn’t very smart.
My girlfriend voted for him, not because of what he stands for, but as a vote against the GOP and conservatives. She didn't take the time to research, or even believe, the facts about this man. She just hated Bush and she always votes democrat. I know that in a couple of years she'll be singing a different tune when the dems take our 401K's, and she loses her job because her small business boss can't afford her because of all the capital gains taxes. It's a tough time in my household right now, but I know one day she'll come to her senses, and I hope the other obamunists in the country do the same.
Shmucky Schumer, one of the most disgusting liars the scumbag leftists of NY ever produced.
Schumer is porn and ought to be censored.
I would love to know what percent of 0’s 52% voted for him just because they were fed up with Bush. In my opinion that’s not a group that can be expected to be too tolerant of extremes and will quickly abandon him once his true agenda sees the light of day. This man won because he was in the right place at the right time. Paraphrasing Bill Whittle in NRO, it took an unpopular war, an unpopular president, a feeble economy, a collapsing housing market, unprecedented amounts of private funds, and billions of dollars in free advertising courtesy of our “Fair and Objective” media to garner him a whopping 52%. Any other time in our past or any time in the future this man gets no more than 40%.
Any damned fool can face a crowd or a camera and appear to the clueless audience that he possesses superior intelligence.
Just consider Dan Rather for an example.
I don't doubt that, since he is at bottom a man of no physical OR moral courage. He is merely the cover that got the American public to buy the book, and all he has to do is maintain a facade... and those who have engineered his presidency will see to it that the facade is maintained no matter what the cost.
Chris Matthews has personally promised as much.
Your analysis suffers by being too intelligent and thoughtful. You are making the classic mistake of not seeing the blindness of the subject(s) and you project reason where the isn't or won't be any.
I used that same phrase (over reach)after Obozo’s win for the same reason it is used in the story. Obama and his flying monkey democrats have been champing and snarling at the bit in frustration for 8 looooong years. They may, at some deep level understand the need for caution but even if they do, the sheer glee at being able now to slam through damn near anything they want (they think)is going to take over. These people are going to take off like children let loose in candy land.
I don't have the slightest doubt that they will, moronically, provoke a constitutional crises inside of two years.
I would suspect it enough to swing back the other way in a heart beat. Tax raising requests pretty much all failed at the local level in our state that went heavily for Obama.
She just hated Bush and she always votes democrat.
Sir, you have my condolences.
I have the same feeling. Buyers' remorse will be hitting the voters soon.
By 2010 America will have experienced 2 years of The Ones inexperience and concluded O-less will be better than Clueless. This clown is going to be the earliest lame duck president in history.
I agree. As a poll watcher in South Florida I saw the most bizarre things. People who had not voted since 1960 showed up, 18 year old kids in greater numbers than you can imagine, scads of dirty grungy people...in other words people who would never be motivated to stand in line for anything but "the one".
If you take away the American Idol aspect of the whole thing since you did actually have to show up to vote, you can only conclude that these unlikely voters must have expected a payoff for their effort. Do they expect a full tank of gas, a free college education, or do they actually expect that raising a rich person's taxes will in some way directly benefit them? I have no idea what the true answer is. But I think these unlikely voters will soon find out that they have put into office a very unqualified man and not the magician that they expected.
Obama’s about to find out he wrote a big check with insufficient funds in his account.
The dude's head will be spinning at warp speed in no time. We need to hunker down with lots of popcorn to watch the O Show. It's going to be an interesting 4 years.
“Obamas about to find out he wrote a big check with insufficient funds in his account.”
The most concise and accurate statement on this thread.
There is no doub they will overreach and alienate most of America. Here’s a little essay I wrote and sent to a few friends last week.
There are several theories of history. The one I ascribe to is that history repeats itself about every twenty years and man learns nothing in the process.
The 89th Congress under Lyndon Johnson had a very solid Democrat majority both of Senators and Representatives. Johnson introduced his Great Society welfare economy and while he won election in 1966, he lost 48 House 4 Senate seats, derailing many of his plans. He reached too far and lost.
28 years later...
Bill Clinton took the reins in 1992 with a significant Democrat majority in both House and Senate. He overreached and in 1994 got spanked, losing 9 Senate and 54 House seats along with control of both the House and the Senate.
14 years later...
Barack Obama won the White House in a vote that was closer in popular vote than expected. The House and Senate will be in solid Democrat control...But, because history repeats itself about every twenty year and man learns nothing in the process, they will overreach and alienate the American people and they will lose.
Our next Congressional election cycle starts January 21, 2009. We should be done sucking our thumbs in the fetal position by then, so let’s get to work.
Another moment of our history
During the Battle of the Bulge in World War II, American forces were in Bastogne, France, surrounded by enemy forces. At that point, General Creighton Abrams was heard to exclaim “They’ve got us surrounded again...the poor bastards.”
Let that be our rallying cry as we lick our wounds and remember that God is in control and by the grace of God, we are Americans.
This is exactly the reason my husband and I get when we ask why they voted Obama, These are reasonably intelligent people as well. The always say "I hate Bush! so I will go the other way this time. He can't do any worse!" This makes my blood boil. They either do no research or listen to the MSM and the lies they tell. I have had a hard time even looking at friends this past week that have voted for Obama. They have no idea what danger they put their country in. The thing is we can say "I told you so" but we will have to suffer for their stupidity! Grrrr!
Charles Krauthammer mentioned last night at the Fox News “all-stars” roundtable that everyone he knows who hears one of these national-security briefings for the first time leaves with their hair standing on end. We live in a very dangerous world.
He knows he can no longer vote "present" but that he'll have to make what are called "decisions."
I emphatically agree with your assessment, that he Knows He Is In Over His Head.
Why is she still your girl friend ?
Friends don't let friends hang with the seriously disturbed
That's what BDS (Bush Derangement Syndrome) is: a serious mental disturbance.
I'm not being flippant.
Been waiting since 1964 to see a Barry in the White House.
After 12 years together, politics is the last thing I would split up over. Mutual love, and many other things in common keep us happy and together. We have learned to keep the politics out of the living room. She is a smart, beautiful woman.
Thanks, but see my reply #44.
Just a silly aside, but I was listening to some guy on the radio give advice about dating.
He said “Never bring up politics or religion on the first few dates.”
I thought, now there a democrat for you. Why do you want to go out in the first place with someone you couldn’t share the deepest part of your soul with? I can think of one reason, and that you can pay for.
Since he has feet of clay and the heart of Oprah, he will fail miserably trying to contain any one of these tests let alone all of them.
Well, maybe that is why you are with a Democrat.
I have friends who are politically unaware, but I find it hard to get along with Democrats. It’s not the politics itself. But politics is based in principles, and fundamental beliefs about the way the world works.
It’s like not sharing basic morality or principles with your partner. I couldn’t do it.
To each his own. I am able to enjoy life without politics being the focal point of everything. I would dare say I have more of my core friends that are liberal than are conservative, except at church. I am one of 5 conservatives out of about 40 employees at work, and I play in a band with guys that are on both sides of the aisle. It can be aggravating at times, but we are all humans.