Posted on 11/12/2008 6:31:58 AM PST by reaganaut1
As Richard Nixon wrote, “history is written by liberals,” but the story of the 2008 campaign is too important to cede to them the analysis of what happened. A close analysis of the returns indicates several key realities:
a) Sarah Palin made a vast difference in McCain’s favor. Compared to 2004, McCain lost 11 points among white men, according to the Fox News exit poll, but only four points among white women. Obama’s underperformance among white women, evident throughout the fall, may be chalked up, in large part, to the influence of Sarah Palin. She provided a rallying point for women who saw their political agenda in terms larger than abortion. She addressed the question of what it is like to be a working mother in today’s economy and society and resonated with tens of millions of white women who have not responded to the more traditional, and liberal, advocates for their gender.
b) Turnout did not increase substantially. Despite predictions (by me and others) of a vastly greater voter turnout, it didn’t happen. About 127 million people voted in 2008, compared to 122 million in 2004. By contrast, turnout rose by almost 20 million between 2000 and 2004. The emphasis on early voting and the heavy participation in primaries indicated the likelihood of a huge increase in turnout, but, on Election Day, the turnout was modest.
c) The black vote made a huge difference; but young people did not. Obama, as expected, generated a big increase in African-American voter turnout. Fox News’s exit polls estimate that blacks constituted 13 percent of the turnout in 2008, compared with 11 percent in 2004 and 10 percent in 2000. But voters under 30 years of age were still the same 11 percent of the vote that they were in 2004.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
yes.
Many are unwilling to give credit where its due. Morris is right this time.
Even a blind sucker finds a toe once in a while!?!?! (:
When he’s right, he’s right. And lately he’s been right a good deal of the time.
Palin repeatedly pulled McCain’s bacon out of the fire, yet nary a word of that from anyone. And, I’m not sure that Dick Morris counts as anyone.
But it's not going to work.
As to Obama, well, we have to keep soldiering on and fighting.
IMHO, we simply must write our GOP senators and urge them to stand.
While standing up in any way we can ourselves over these next four years until we can turn this OBAMANATION out.
He is correct. If it weren’t for Sarah, this election would have been 70-30 or worse..............
This may have been the one time in 232 years where the Vice-Presidential candidate was more important than the top of the ticket.
Governor Palin probably saved the Republican Party from a defeat of catastrophic proportions.
Who was more important on the ticket? Look at who was attacked more on the campaign. The fear on the left was against Governor Palin not John McCain.
WTF? over. So if Maverick had done as we;ll as she, he would be POTUS? Dick Morris, famous toe-sucker and Clinton adviser... And Odinga campaign strategist in Kenya, right along side you-know-who. Together they barnstormed for Odinga all over Kenya, raised over a $ Million bucks for the church-burner here in the USA, and if anyone gives a rat's patoot, violated the Logan Act..
Dick is a brilliant guy, but a mixed bag in the long run, like most of us-——he has a permanent virtually daily conduit to FOX and has his every thought heard and his every column referred to and publicized. Considering how much he has to say, and does say, his batting average is pretty high. But when he’s wrong, he’s really wrong, and proves he’s not so smart as to be a prophet> Remember a lame idea that actually got turned into a book titled “Condi vs. Hillary”? How’d that one work out?
I just wonder about vote fraud, and by that I don’t mean just inflated numbers on the Dem side. I wonder about Republican votes being “lost,” or otherwise not counted. The intensity of the Republican voters I know was higher than 2004, or even 2000. It doesn’t add up, for me at least.
He often makes sense. Just like when you read or listen to anyone, you have to use your own judgment about what is said. He’s worth listening to. I could care less about toe fetishes.
Damn skippy Sarah saved him from a landslide defeat.
I would have voted Bab Barr if McCain had picked Crist as running mate.
She is the reason I voted for and financially supported McCain.
I am more scared by the complete wussification of America if Obama garnered that much support from white men. That’s disgusting.
Trapped as I am here in the Blue State Hell of Massachusetts, I have really been surprised at the number of people who have told me that they were leaning McCain, or at least “could have lived with him,” but were so turned off by Sarah Palin that they voted for Obama.
Even my own 85-year-old mother in Florida told me that.
bump
“The black vote made a huge difference”
Reverse racism.
Sarah definitely stopped this from being a Carter-esque 5 to 6 state election for McCant, no question.
Owl_Eagle
“When the stock market crashed,
Franklin Roosevelt got on the television
and didn’t just talk about
the princes of greed, he said,
‘Look, here’s what happened.’"
-Slow Joe Biden
And it is unusual because he usually says republicans can only win by appealing to moderates and Palin actually gave conservatives something to vote FOR. something McCain was lackling/
“Sarah Palin saved GOP from landslide defeat”
She kept McCain from getting a number in the 30’s.
“but were so turned off by Sarah Palin that they voted for Obama.”
I’ll bet you anything that these people watch MSM only and were completely manipulated by the biased reporting on Palin. Of course they’d be turned off by her; they never heard the truth.
We’ve got to do something about the MSM’s position as propaganda arm for the dem party. And we don’t have much time. 2010 is looming already. How, though?
I fear she has been finished off. The media bias against her is two-fold - they hate conservatives AND they are sexist. It’s too much to overcome - particularly in light of the tactics Obama has used, and will refine over the next several years.
Merciful heavens, I agree with Dick Morris. Must sit down.
Morris deserves credit. Heaven knows we may never hear what we know is true again about Sarah’s impact.
My RINO friend who btw told me after the election that he did not vote for his man McCain (he was for him in the primaries) but instead for Obama because of Palin. I realized my buddy is a flat out sexist when he said that Palin should be a schoolteacher and she is an idiot, blah blah blah.
I told him he might want to not say that in front of his new wife (remarried a year and a half back). She happens to be a second grade teacher.
He then begged me not to say anything in front of her. I said no problem. I’m warning you is all.
Irony.
So we may not “hear” about this again but you can be sure the real Obamatrons already know this. I told my buddy before the election that Sarah was the only thing keeping it close.
Folks already know that here.
IMO, you have to read Morris and at least ponder what he says for a minute without reaction. Yes, he is an attention whore whose best days are behind him, and he has the habit of being outrageous just to pump his dwindling franchise, and he’s not even right all that often. But, I find that in almost every one of his articles, there is that one single piece of clear thinking that he usually says first.
Earth to Morris: The GOP did suffer a landslide defeat!
And the LORD told him: “Listen to all that the people are saying to you; it is not you they have rejected, but they have rejected me as their king. 1 Samuel 8:7 NIV
Correct.
We have been saying the same thing at FR for days.
Dick Morris is wrong a lot of the time, yes.
But he is right on this one.
The fact that the GOP slid relative to its performance in 2004 (i.e. matters kept sliding downhill) reflects the failure of Palin to attract the "women's vote". One hopes that this failure will encourage the GOP to leave this sort of identity-politics crap to the liberals in future.
The difference in dropoff is simply the result of the GOP already (as of 2004) attracting few women voters -- it simply didn't have as far to fall in the "women's vote" as it did in the "men's vote".
You'd win that bet, for sure.
Look at the spike on Daily Kos right after Sarah was nominated! She scared the crap out of them.
Obviously not, since she did four percent worse than Dick Cheney at attracting the "women's vote".
This is the difference: Republicans don't win presidential elections in Massachusetts. Massachusetts doesn't represent the rest of the country.
If you want to feel your ears flap, as I did..read this article:
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/11/11/palin-everything-that-is-wrong-with-america/
As Sarah says (and I paraphrase) all of the blows she took only made her stronger...so, we need to keep on getting stronger in taking the GOP back from those who have infiltrated it and shifted it left...and for our next standard bearer...Sarah Palin 2012.
I’ve been asking some of my liberal friends about that, why Palin got such incredible visceral personal hatred from the left this election. All they do is whine “well, she called us anti-American” and “Barack got insulted too, they called him Hussein!”. Oh really? People all over the blogosphere were calling Sarah Palin a c-—...funny, I never saw Obama referred to with ANY sexual or racist slur, not once. I can’t make them see that Palin caught more sheer hell this campaign than any other candidate I can remember since 1984, and can’t understand how Palin would cause people who otherwise liked McCain to vote against him.
}:-)4
Apparently, it does now. May God help us all.
“Compared to 2004, McCain lost 11 points among white men,”
Remember that when we’re accused of being racist.
How do you come by that one?
McCain was already losing the “woman's vote” by a big margin BEFORE Gov Paling was even nominated.
McCain shot ahead by 4% at RCP after Gov Paalin energized the base with her rousing RNC speech. McCain's speech was a snoozefest.
McCain sank after his notorious vote for that $700 billion bailout vote, and his speech blaming the Republican appointed Chairman of the SEC instead of blaming the Dims and Barney Frank the real culprits). He never recovered. No one can save a guy that is determined to lose like McCain was.
“I just wonder about vote fraud, and by that I don’t mean just inflated numbers on the Dem side. I wonder about Republican votes being “lost,” or otherwise not counted. The intensity of the Republican voters I know was higher than 2004, or even 2000. It doesn’t add up, for me at least.”
I think Republican votes were counted. I also believe many Republicans voted third party or none of the above, voted for Obama to teach the RNC a lesson, and many stayed home. Trouble is we all will suffer greatly for those voting decisions which helped Obama win the White House.
“Apparently, it does now”
If it did, Utah and Oklahoma would have voted for Hussein. They didn’t. They voted overwhelmingly for McCain.
Had it not been for Palin on the ticket, McCain would have had a humiliating defeat. He was running behind when he nominated her.
Many, including me, thought he would maverick for Lieberman — and that would have resulted in absolute defeat. But some of his handlers were knowledgeable enough to know that that choice would be certain defeat.
The main problem in having Palin on the ticket was that she turned out to be a bigger draw and more popular than the top of the ticket was That grated on McCain’s ego. She drew tens-of-thousands; he drew a few hundred. Instead of unleashing her, the handlers (by instruction from the top?) kept her from many TV and media interviews.
==
Well, his O-ness has been president-elect for a week and the DOW has dropped again today. So far, it is down about 1,000 points since the election.
DOW 8514 at -174 and fluctuating.
It's right in the article -- the 2008 share of the "women's vote" dropped off 4% from the 2004 share of the "women's vote".
My sample is pretty small, but I noticed a pattern among my female friends: Fat women conservatives voted against Sarah. Perhaps she was just too attractive for them to feel anything but jealousy. Either that or those fat women spent too much time watching MSM TV and believed the anti-Sarah propaganda. Its a shame if that is the case. What can one do about envious women?
Exactly how do you define that?
You might want to read this:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2130715/posts
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