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So Now We Shall See
National Review Online ^ | Nov. 16, 2008 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 11/16/2008 9:45:00 AM PST by Yardstick

For much of the last few years, and especially the last few months of the campaign, we have heard a familiar narrative. Guantánamo was a virtual stalag, where far more innocents than terrorists were unjustly incarcerated. Given that this gulag served no useful purpose, it should be summarily shut down, and the unfairly detained suspects at last returned to their families back home. The FISA laws and Patriot Act were aimed more at bogeymen than jihadists, and what little advantage they gave us was not worth the shredding of the Constitution.

The ‘fly-paper’ theory of Iraq—thousands of belligerents flocked to Iraq, were killed and defeated, discredited radical Islam, and, their loss of face, coupled with a constitutional Iraq, made the region and the U.S. safer–is a puerile reductive fiction. What bellicosity we experienced with supposedly rogue terrorist-sponsoring states such as Syria and Iran was largely due to George Bush’s juvenile cowboy rhetoric—‘bring ‘em on’, ‘smoke ‘em out, ‘dead or alive’—and his refusal to defuse tensions and misunderstandings through reasoned diplomacy.

The promotion of democracy was a neocon pipedream, in which partly through violence, partly through cultural arrogance, we tried to clumsily project our values on deeply religious, traditional, tribal—and in the end, deeply different—societies, whose own alternate politics cannot be so crudely dismissed by our rather arbitrary standards.

American unpopularity in the Middle East had nothing to do with globalization, westernization, age-old envy or the newfound ability via instant communications to see how much worse life was in an autocratic Arab world than in a free West, but was largely a phenomenon of George Bush’s Iraq War and his neocon advisors’ crude tilt toward the Zionists. “The War On Terror” was largely a construct to wage perennial war, impugn the patriotism of critics, and scare the American people, through false consciousness, into voting against their real economic interests.

I think that is a fair enough appraisal of the opposition’s view of the Bush anti-terror philosophy. And as is true of all theories, we will soon perhaps see the extent to which it proves the more accurate in the real world of the next administration.

So the closing of Guantánamo, repeal of the Bush anti-terrorism legislation, rapid withdrawal from Iraq (though we are already past Obama's original target date of March 2008 for withdrawal of all combat troops), cessation of pressure to democratize and the end of hectoring against Arab authoritarianism, soothing rhetoric from a new Chief Executive, renewed diplomatic reaching out to Teheran and Damascus, more even-handed approach to the Israeli-Palestinian problem, and rejection of the notion we are in some sort of war, much less one of a “global” nature, should ensure greater American popularity, win-over our critics, defuse tensions with Iran and Syria, and ensure another seven years of safety from a major terrorist attack at home.

So come late January and beyond we shall see, and we all should genuinely wish the Obama administration well in their promised radical departure from the past, since the stakes are high for us all.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: obamatransitionfile; unholyalliance; vdh
Soon the substance of the left's anti-Bush theories will be put to the test.
1 posted on 11/16/2008 9:45:01 AM PST by Yardstick
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To: Yardstick

The real question, should these individuals be released in cities like San Francisco, Chicago, Berkeley, Detroit and New York City?


2 posted on 11/16/2008 9:49:15 AM PST by realcleanguy
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To: Yardstick

“Soon the substance of the left’s anti-Bush theories will be put to the test.”

Yes.


3 posted on 11/16/2008 9:50:04 AM PST by Twinkie (REPENT! Look Up! The Lord's Return Is At Hand . . . . .)
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To: Yardstick

What is the set of measurable criteria to judge whether the Left was right or not? To determine whether the Bush approach was the best way? To show the world how accurate Bush was?

IS there a set of criteria we, the American people, can all agree upon? Or even just those of us here?

In other words, what will history use to judge?


4 posted on 11/16/2008 9:51:47 AM PST by worst-case scenario (Striving to reach the light)
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To: Yardstick
Soon the substance of the left's anti-Bush theories will be put to the test.

Why do I get an image of a Mad Scientist testing out his new improved potion on himself? Screw the consequences. This is for the good of all Mankind.
Yeah, right.

5 posted on 11/16/2008 9:52:13 AM PST by Bloody Sam Roberts (Bureaucracy is a parasite that preys on free thought and suffocates free spirit.)
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To: Yardstick

If the US were only to become more like Venezuela, all would be well.


6 posted on 11/16/2008 9:52:22 AM PST by Paladin2 (No, pundits strongly believe that the proper solution is more dilution.)
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To: Yardstick

I have been debating whether we on FR should have a betting pool on how soon we will be attack or how soon it will take for the MSM to turn against The One.


7 posted on 11/16/2008 9:54:23 AM PST by notpoliticallycorewrecked (According to the MSM, I'm a fringe sitting, pajama wearing Freeper)
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To: worst-case scenario
n other words, what will history use to judge?

In my mind, easy. The number of dead bodies in American cities at the hands of Islamic terrorists fron 2001-2009 compared to the number of dead bodies in American cities thereafter.

Bush's record in this department is perfect. Zero attacks on American soil beyond September 11th, 2001. Anything but on BO's watch--shows failure. It's a tough record to beat.

8 posted on 11/16/2008 9:57:02 AM PST by riri
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To: realcleanguy

I haven’t heard anything about releasing anyone in Guantanomo. I thought they were going to be moved to a prision in the US and given trials.


9 posted on 11/16/2008 9:57:07 AM PST by Crystal Cove
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To: Crystal Cove

I was jumping the gun


10 posted on 11/16/2008 9:58:43 AM PST by realcleanguy
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To: Yardstick
cessation of pressure to democratize and the end of hectoring against Arab authoritarianism, soothing rhetoric from a new Chief Executive, renewed diplomatic reaching out to Teheran and Damascus, more even-handed approach to the Israeli-Palestinian problem, and rejection of the notion we are in some sort of war, much less one of a “global” nature, should ensure greater American popularity, win-over our critics, defuse tensions with Iran and Syria, and ensure another seven years of safety from a major terrorist attack at home.

More or less what Rice's State Department (maybe, 'Department Paid For By Arab Sheiks' would be a better name) has already been doing the past two years anyway.

With a complaisant media, Obama can do anything he wants: any incongruity with past statements or policies will vanish down the memory hole provided by the MSM Ministry of Truth.

11 posted on 11/16/2008 9:59:11 AM PST by pierrem15 (Charles Martel: past and future of France)
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To: notpoliticallycorewrecked

“I have been debating whether we on FR should have a betting pool on how soon we will be attack or how soon it will take for the MSM to turn against The One.”

I’d be game for that!


12 posted on 11/16/2008 10:00:25 AM PST by Lilpug15 (GIRD YOUR LOINS!)
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To: Lilpug15
But which one or do you think that they are synonymous ?
13 posted on 11/16/2008 10:05:34 AM PST by notpoliticallycorewrecked (According to the MSM, I'm a fringe sitting, pajama wearing Freeper)
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To: Yardstick

The only good news is that the Dems will be completely in charge of their failures. I only hope their disasters are large enough to shock the idiots who voted for them.


14 posted on 11/16/2008 10:06:12 AM PST by FastCoyote (I am intolerant of the intolerable.)
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To: realcleanguy
Hey, these yoots will probably receive gubmint reparations, be signed up as clients by William Morris and other PR firms for speaking tours and book advances, and get free scholarships to the Ivy League so they can become distinguished faculty.

Meanwhile the former military personnel serving at Gitmo will live in constant vigilance of reprisal. The US media will be happy to send al Qaeda encouragement by publishing their names, hometowns, and directions to their homes and kids’ schools..

15 posted on 11/16/2008 10:06:42 AM PST by silverleaf (Fasten your seat belts- it's going to be a BUMPY ride.)
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To: worst-case scenario
That's what VDH is doing here. He's framing things, noting initial conditions and making sure we're all clear on what the left has been claiming over the past 6 or 8 years. In other words, he's creating the intellectual frame that will make the left's ideas and actions (in the form of the Obama administration) testable going forward (and of course this will all reflect on Bush as well).

I think this is something the Republicans need to get on the ball and start doing too. If indeed they think Obama's leftist policies are going to fail, they should be making public statements now that note present conditions -- unemployment rate, GDP growth, gas prices -- and that prime the public to pay attention to which way these measures move over the next few years. They should say if the Democrats do X, expect Y to happen, then they can point to it later.

With a true lefty in the White House and the Dems controlling all branches of govt, we have near laboratory perfect conditions to test the left's bad ideas. It's a great opportunity if we're smart about it and frame things right.

16 posted on 11/16/2008 10:08:36 AM PST by Yardstick
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To: Yardstick

Be afraid..... be very afraid.

Jamie Gorelick is out there and alive.


17 posted on 11/16/2008 10:11:32 AM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Save America......... put out lots of waferin)
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To: riri
Bush's record in this department is perfect. Zero attacks on American soil beyond September 11th, 2001. Anything but on BO's watch--shows failure. It's a tough record to beat.

To be fair, we don't know this.
There have been no attacks on American soil that we know of.

There have been many instances since 9-11-01 that could have been terrorist attacks, though they killed less numbers of people, were not spouted by the MSM to be terrorist attacks, and have not been credited to any terrorist organization.

In the end, we just don't know.

18 posted on 11/16/2008 10:11:47 AM PST by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: Just another Joe
But we do know that they wanted an attack that rivaled 9-11. They abandoned their plan to use cyanide in the NYC subways because it wasn't large enough. They have not been able to achieve those aims.

Bush gets that credit along with the other foreign intelligence agencies (namely the Brits) who have been pretty damn good too.

19 posted on 11/16/2008 10:22:28 AM PST by riri
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To: silverleaf

My thoughts exactly


20 posted on 11/16/2008 10:24:19 AM PST by realcleanguy
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To: riri
I will agree that we have not had any attacks that rivaled 9-11.
I also give the credit for that to the Bush administration and our security forces.

I don't think that we will see another attack of that magnitude in, at least, the first two years of the Oboma administration.
The security forces will go along for that length of time on sheer inertia.

After that, it's anyone's guess.

21 posted on 11/16/2008 10:27:20 AM PST by Just another Joe (Warning: FReeping can be addictive and helpful to your mental health)
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To: riri

BUT.... and that’s a big “but” - if, God be praised, no Americans die in American cities as a result of terrorist attacks ion Obama’s watch, we will need some further measurements to prove that Bush’s approach was the better one. What would the criteria be? Costs?


22 posted on 11/16/2008 10:28:41 AM PST by worst-case scenario (Striving to reach the light)
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To: Just another Joe
I agree to a point. Also, the British intelligence is up to snuff. They have much more infiltration and countless years of experience dealing with the IRA.

Again, though, the big unknown is just how he will govern. We don't know how destructive he will be to our forces and how lax he will let things get.

Also, the Islamists must realize the sooner they strike the better and longer they will have to commit harm to the country. I do believe despite the attempts to spin it as a Bush failure or whatever hey can conjure up to try and absolve Obama of the blame, the electorate will rush to the Republicans for security reasons.

23 posted on 11/16/2008 10:34:45 AM PST by riri
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To: Yardstick

Why not build a few barracks right there on the White House grounds and, after 1/20/09, let them all live THERE.

What the hell, they’re gentle souls, right?


24 posted on 11/16/2008 10:38:14 AM PST by Dick Bachert
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To: realcleanguy

The real question, should these individuals be released in cities like San Francisco, Chicago, Berkeley, Detroit and New York City?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

They probably have a much better chance of survival there than in Podunk, Missibama.


25 posted on 11/16/2008 11:29:59 AM PST by RipSawyer (Great Grandpa was a Confederate soldier from the cradle of secession.)
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To: FastCoyote

Whatever failures they experience, they will say it was Pres. Bush’s fault, because he did/didn’t do/tell them anything about it. Remember the clinton administration blaming Pres Bush #1 and Pres. Reagan for their failures? They were young and obama’s group will pull the same trick.


26 posted on 11/16/2008 11:38:23 AM PST by tillacum (Let's find conservative veterans who really know how to fight for this country, next time.)
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To: Yardstick

With the exception of very few elected Republicans, will we hear anything from them? I didn’t hear anyone contradict any untruths used against President Bush. It just seems to me, the Republicans we have elected are reluctant to appear on tv and disagree with the democrats, no matter how outlandish the story or how high the poop is piled.


27 posted on 11/16/2008 11:42:24 AM PST by tillacum (Let's find conservative veterans who really know how to fight for this country, next time.)
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To: silverleaf

Yes, we will send all the unfortunates to an ivy league university, though they can neither read nor write nor think.


28 posted on 11/16/2008 11:44:08 AM PST by tillacum (Let's find conservative veterans who really know how to fight for this country, next time.)
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To: notpoliticallycorewrecked

How soon we will be attacked? We are being attacked now by stealth jihad and creeping sharia.


29 posted on 11/16/2008 11:44:43 AM PST by sageb1 (Justice is for lawyers. Liberty is for We,The People.)
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To: Yardstick
VDH was stating the Left's view in mild language. They would express their condemnation of Bush and the leading figures in the administration in much harsher language.

C-SPAN last night was showing the Miami Book Fair. Somebody named Scahill was denouncing the Bush administration and hoping that some European court would bring charges so that Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and others would be afraid to leave the US, for fear of being put on trial (like with Pinochet). He was pessimistic about Obama trying to punish the "crimes" of the Bush administration. He and the audience took it as a given that our treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo is "torture." It seemed to be a moonbat-only crowd.

30 posted on 11/16/2008 11:51:20 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: notpoliticallycorewrecked

My money is on January 20th just after the inauguration. That’s how quickly Achmed-the-nut-job released the hostages when President Reagan was sworn in in place of Mr. Peanut. Why should he change his stripes?


31 posted on 11/16/2008 6:25:43 PM PST by YankeeinOkieville (Do illiterates get the full effect of alphabet soup?)
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