Skip to comments.The Battle for the GOP Is On: Palin, Romney or Jindal
Posted on 11/30/2008 2:59:10 PM PST by lewisglad
The Battle for the GOP Is On - Palin, Romney or JindalNovember 30th, 2008 By: Michael van der Galien | Tags: Leave a comment | Trackback The latest polls of Republican and all voters indicate that the conservative Republican base favors candidates voters in general do not think too highly of.
For instance, 24.4% Republican voters want Governor Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for president in 2012. Only 13.4% of all voters agree.
At the same time, Governor Mitt Romney ranks second among all voters, six points behind Palin, but leads among all voters (be it barely).
Among conservatives, both represent an entirely different faction: Palin is the Christian conservative while Romney is the darling of (elite and well educated) fiscal conservatives. These two battled it out earlier this year with fiscal conservatives favoring Romney, Christian conservatives supporting Governor Mike Huckabee, and the party ending up with Senator John McCain as the compromise candidate.
A compromise figure not able to make life truly difficult for now president-elect Barack Obama.
Most remarkable about the figures, however, is that there is a third candidate who does relatively better (meaning: smaller gap) among all voters than among Republicans: Governor Bobby Jindal. Jindal has quite a low profile nationally, yet he already ranks third in both categories. When all voters are included, the gap between him and Romney is only 1.2%, which is remarkable.
Huckabee fares less well; he is fourth with only 9.7% among Republicans and 8.0% among all voters.
This while Huckabee was the favorite of the Christian conservative base.
So what happened to Huckabee? Palin. Although Huckabee could count on the support of Christian conservatives during the primaries, they all flocked to Palin during the general election campaign. Palin became their candidate, their darling even. The defeat made her more not less popular among this group of conservative voters for they consider her a martyr.
The above means that the Republican Party could very well nominate a person who is deemed anti-intellectual, simple, naive and overly socially conservative in 2012 or that the war between the fiscal conservative and social conservative base will continue with at least one side staying home on election day, thereby ensuring Obama a second term.
That is, unless Palin can improve her image, studies hard and convince libertarian and fiscal conservatives that she is more than just a socon (unlikely). Or if Romney will succeed in courting Evangelicals and convincing them that either his Mormon faith should not be a problem to them (unlikely) or that his faith and their faith teach the same basic principles and values (less unlikely, but not altogether likely).
Of course there is a third option, an option I consider most likely and, especially, most in the interest of the Republican Party: that conservative voters will agree on a compromise candidate who endorses conservative views in most ways. In other words, a person who is a convinced social conservative (yet not overly so, for it would make it easy to destroy a candidate who is as socially conservative and as vocal about it as Palin and Huckabee are), who also has a track record of fiscal conservatism and who sympathizes with many libertarian policies.
At this moment, it seems to me that neither Huckabee nor Palin nor Romney fit the bill (although Romney would certainly be a better choice than the other two). Jindal, however, does.
For Jindal, 2008 and especially 2009 offer a tremendous opportunity to raise his profile nationally, to court conservatives of all stripes and to implement policies rooted in conservatism. He will have to use his time in Louisiana in order to show voters that conservative policies work and improve their daily lives. He he has already done so to a tremendous degree, but the most difficult times are ahead of him. The recession is likely to worsen in the coming months with Americans in all states suffering financially. Jindal will have to control the damage and improve his state at the same time.
Personally I would like to see none of the above. We need a new Reagan. None of these are a new Reagan.
She won the endorsement of the Libertarian Party when she ran for governor of Alaska. No one ever doubted her fiscal conservatism until the MSM did their best to pigeon hole her as some rightwing theocrat nutjob.
Who minds a bit of cultism and magical garments?
The “battle” is all in the minds of MSM. They would like nothing better than an imbroglio between the contenders. GOP gains by avoiding a fight and instead pursue a strategy of positive push for your candidate without violating the 11th commandment.
I’d go with Mark Sanford from South Carolina, at this point.
Just let the media keep underestimating our gal. :)
In case you haven’t heard yet, Reagan died in 2004. He won’t be coming back any time soon.
Any author who says Ronmey would be a better choice than Palin or Jindal is clearly not a conservative. This piece has no credibility whatsoever.
Why is that unlikely? She can certainly do it if she wants to. Alaskans would support her in that endeavor.
Actually, Huckabee happened to Huckabee. Given a choice between an Evangelical Christian who is a religious bigot and and economic populist and an Evangelical Christian who is an economic conservative and is not bigoted against Catholics and Mormons, even Evangelical Christians will chose the later.
Huck needs to run for the Senate from Arkansas and forget about being president. Either that or just quietly go away.
I am solidly supporting Governor Palin.
Every time I see Newts name I think of him and 9% Pelosi sitting on the couch, cuddling up with their global warming chatter...... Newt is out.. he needs to sit on the couch with his third wife..
Huckabee is not a conservative by a long shot, and I think he is left of center on his religious views.
At least by this Christian Conservative.
“For instance, 24.4% Republican voters want Governor Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for president in 2012. Only 13.4% of all voters agree.
At the same time, Governor Mitt Romney ranks second among all voters, six points behind Palin, but leads among all voters (be it barely).”
That would be Democrats who are not voting Republican anyway, and moderates who don’t know what they want?
Why do we care what ‘all voters’ want?
Didn’t we go through this in the primaries when ‘all voters’ chose John McCain?
Sarah Palin/Ron Paul
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