Skip to comments.Poll: Chambliss with ‘solid’ lead, but…
Posted on 12/01/2008 12:27:22 PM PST by SmithL
Public Policy Polling of North Carolina has released a final poll of the U.S. Senate runoff, giving Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss a solid 53 percent lead over Democrat Jim Martin, who weighs in at 46 percent.
But PPP also attaches a caveat.
The survey of 1,276 likely voters was conducted Nov. 29 and 30, and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.7 percent.
Here are two cogent paragraphs from the PPP analysis:
Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely .
Martin leads with voters under 45, but trails 68-31 with voters over 65. Senior citizens are the most reliable group of voters and likely to make up a larger portion of the electorate than they did on November 4th for this comparatively low interest election. Thats just one more hurdle to climb for the Democratic challenger.
But heres a statement that Tom Jensen, communications director for PPP, posted on the firms blog, noting the difficulty of polling a post-holiday runoff:
So we have data from the poll this weekend suggesting black turnout could be as high as 33-34% and turnout from early voting suggesting it could be as low as 23-24%.
Our poll the previous weekend, not over the holiday, looked like blacks would make up 27-29% of the electorate and were sticking with that for our projection.
But because weve seen evidence to the contrary in either direction, really nothing between a 2-point Martin victory and a 16-point Chambliss victory would absolutely shock me. Thats just the nature of the uncertainly with an election like this.
Well, if he loses, that 'solid' lead butt will open up a career in radiology.
Martin should really get Franken’s ballot counters.
Martin received 46% in the first round, with Obama on the ballot, as well as a Libertarian siphoning off votes from Chambliss.
Neither Obama nor the Libertarian will be on the ballot for the runoff. I don’t see how Chambliss can lose.
When’s the runoff election? Thanks
This is an important race. Once 60 is taken off the table, the Dems appetite to go through the trouble of stealing Minnesota may wane.
That’s what I thought. Thanks
I already voted. Now, I’m just keeping my fingers crossed.
It was good to see Palin come out for Chambliss today. They held several rallies. Who did Martin have? Rapper Ludacris. I kid you not! Those 2 dimwits had a rally in Atlanta.
Tells me all I need to know about his supporters.
Chambliss SHOULD win this.
1. There was a larger than normal AA turnout to vote Obama, they won’t be motivated to vote in the runoff.
2. The Democrats are actually running ads tying Martin to Obama (like they think Obama has coattails in GA.) They forget McCain won the presidential vote by a large margin in GA (Martin & Obama both pulled 47% of the vote.) All they are doing is firing up the anti-Obama crowd to come out (Obama, imho, will have negative coattails in GA.)
The Dems don’t really need 60 votes on some issues because of several RINO Senators(Collins, Snowe, Specter, etc). Also, there is at least one moderate Dem Senator, Nelson from Nebraska(?), who sometimes doesn’t go along with Reid.
Right now, I’d say Chambliss by 2. JMHO
That depends 100% on turnout. The union goons have their vans to drive voters to the polls, etc.
If Saxby's base sits at home 'cause Saxby's a "sure winner," they may be very disappointed 24 hrs from now.
Good news down in the Peach state. My Xmas present would be for Saxby and Coleman win.
Here’s how Chambliss can lose.
Disgruntled or complacenent Republicans stay home and dont vote.
Independents dont realize that the Democrats own DC lock, stock and barrel if Chambliss loses.
There is a lot of motivation to get Chambliss re-elected with all that.