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Poll: Chambliss with ‘solid’ lead, but…
Atlanta Journal-Constitution ^ | 12/1/8 | Jim Galloway

Posted on 12/01/2008 12:27:22 PM PST by SmithL

Public Policy Polling of North Carolina has released a final poll of the U.S. Senate runoff, giving Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss a “solid” 53 percent lead over Democrat Jim Martin, who weighs in at 46 percent.

But PPP also attaches a caveat.

The survey of 1,276 likely voters was conducted Nov. 29 and 30, and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.7 percent.

Here are two cogent paragraphs from the PPP analysis:

Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely….

Martin leads with voters under 45, but trails 68-31 with voters over 65. Senior citizens are the most reliable group of voters and likely to make up a larger portion of the electorate than they did on November 4th for this comparatively low interest election. That’s just one more hurdle to climb for the Democratic challenger.

But here’s a statement that Tom Jensen, communications director for PPP, posted on the firm’s blog, noting the difficulty of polling a post-holiday runoff:

So we have data from the poll this weekend suggesting black turnout could be as high as 33-34% and turnout from early voting suggesting it could be as low as 23-24%.

Our poll the previous weekend, not over the holiday, looked like blacks would make up 27-29% of the electorate and we’re sticking with that for our projection.

But because we’ve seen evidence to the contrary in either direction, really nothing between a 2-point Martin victory and a 16-point Chambliss victory would absolutely shock me. That’s just the nature of the uncertainly with an election like this.


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Georgia
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; ga2008; jimmartin; runoff; saxbychambliss; ussenate

1 posted on 12/01/2008 12:27:23 PM PST by SmithL
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To: SmithL
Poll: Chambliss with ‘solid’ lead, but…

Well, if he loses, that 'solid' lead butt will open up a career in radiology.

2 posted on 12/01/2008 12:32:12 PM PST by TheWasteLand
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To: SmithL

Martin should really get Franken’s ballot counters.


3 posted on 12/01/2008 12:35:17 PM PST by rbbeachkid
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To: SmithL

Martin received 46% in the first round, with Obama on the ballot, as well as a Libertarian siphoning off votes from Chambliss.

Neither Obama nor the Libertarian will be on the ballot for the runoff. I don’t see how Chambliss can lose.


4 posted on 12/01/2008 12:58:53 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

When’s the runoff election? Thanks


5 posted on 12/01/2008 1:12:52 PM PST by NYC Republican (This Too Shall Pass- in 8 years.. how much destruction will they create?)
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To: NYC Republican

Tomorrow.


6 posted on 12/01/2008 1:14:30 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: NYC Republican

This is an important race. Once 60 is taken off the table, the Dems appetite to go through the trouble of stealing Minnesota may wane.


7 posted on 12/01/2008 1:15:52 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

That’s what I thought. Thanks


8 posted on 12/01/2008 1:16:03 PM PST by NYC Republican (This Too Shall Pass- in 8 years.. how much destruction will they create?)
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To: Chet 99

I already voted. Now, I’m just keeping my fingers crossed.

It was good to see Palin come out for Chambliss today. They held several rallies. Who did Martin have? Rapper Ludacris. I kid you not! Those 2 dimwits had a rally in Atlanta.


9 posted on 12/01/2008 1:21:13 PM PST by Drea
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To: Drea

“...Rapper Ludacris....”

Tells me all I need to know about his supporters.


10 posted on 12/01/2008 1:40:51 PM PST by Islander7 (This Atlas is shrugging! ~ I am Joe!)
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To: Drea

Chambliss SHOULD win this.

1. There was a larger than normal AA turnout to vote Obama, they won’t be motivated to vote in the runoff.

2. The Democrats are actually running ads tying Martin to Obama (like they think Obama has coattails in GA.) They forget McCain won the presidential vote by a large margin in GA (Martin & Obama both pulled 47% of the vote.) All they are doing is firing up the anti-Obama crowd to come out (Obama, imho, will have negative coattails in GA.)


11 posted on 12/01/2008 1:41:33 PM PST by Brookhaven (The Fair Tax is THE economic litmus test for conservatives)
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To: Chet 99

The Dems don’t really need 60 votes on some issues because of several RINO Senators(Collins, Snowe, Specter, etc). Also, there is at least one moderate Dem Senator, Nelson from Nebraska(?), who sometimes doesn’t go along with Reid.


12 posted on 12/01/2008 2:18:03 PM PST by mono
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To: Chet 99

Right now, I’d say Chambliss by 2. JMHO


13 posted on 12/01/2008 2:49:34 PM PST by NYC Republican (This Too Shall Pass- in 8 years.. how much destruction will they create?)
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To: Chet 99
I don’t see how Chambliss can lose.

That depends 100% on turnout. The union goons have their vans to drive voters to the polls, etc.

If Saxby's base sits at home 'cause Saxby's a "sure winner," they may be very disappointed 24 hrs from now.

14 posted on 12/01/2008 4:55:26 PM PST by upchuck (Oppressors can tyrannize only by achieving a standing army, a slaved press, and a disarmed populace.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; Impy; Norman Bates

Good news down in the Peach state. My Xmas present would be for Saxby and Coleman win.


15 posted on 12/01/2008 5:58:55 PM PST by yongin (Converting people to Mormonism makes the world more conservative)
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To: Chet 99

Here’s how Chambliss can lose.
Disgruntled or complacenent Republicans stay home and dont vote.
Independents dont realize that the Democrats own DC lock, stock and barrel if Chambliss loses.

There is a lot of motivation to get Chambliss re-elected with all that.


16 posted on 12/01/2008 7:32:55 PM PST by WOSG (STOP OBAMA'S SOCIALISM)
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To: SmithL

...he won.


17 posted on 12/08/2008 11:06:16 AM PST by dbz77 (uo)
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