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What the Chambliss Win Says About National G.O.P. Prospects: Nothing
The New York Observer ^ | December 3, 2008 | Steve Kornacki

Posted on 12/03/2008 11:57:31 AM PST by redk

The danger of special elections and run-offs is that they invite analysts to impute some sort of national significance or trend to their outcomes. Sometimes, like in the string of Republican victories that preceded their 1994 revolution, this kind of analysis is warranted. But in the case of yesterday's Senate run-off in Georgia, it most certainly is not.

(Excerpt) Read more at observer.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Georgia
KEYWORDS: 111th; chambliss; ga2008; gop; runoff
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Yeah right. If Martin had won we wouldn't stop hearing about how important this election was.
1 posted on 12/03/2008 11:57:32 AM PST by redk
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To: redk

It means this: Georgians backed the GOP, just as they did a month ago....probably at a larger margin since this helped prevent a supermajority of liberals.


2 posted on 12/03/2008 11:59:47 AM PST by ilgipper
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To: redk
If Martin had won we wouldn't stop hearing about how important this election was.

You are correct.

Unfortunately, I think the author of the article is also correct.

It's going to take MUCH more than a Saxby Chambliss victory in Georgia to "right" the GOP ship.

3 posted on 12/03/2008 12:00:12 PM PST by WayneS (Respect the 2nd Amendment; Repeal the 16th)
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To: redk

Wow - Republicans have a filibuster power.

Are they ever going to use it? So far, there are plenty of RINOs and “Mavericks” who are willing to sell us out for 30 seconds of puff on the nightly news.


4 posted on 12/03/2008 12:00:17 PM PST by Tzimisce (http://groups.myspace.com/nailthemessiah)
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To: redk

if the Republican wins the runoff in LA this Saturday, then we might be talking about some kind of pattern.


5 posted on 12/03/2008 12:00:49 PM PST by Chet 99
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To: Tzimisce

Agreed, this sadly isn’t as big as people are making it out to be. Considering in 2010 most of the dem seats are safe, I think 45 is a realistic goal, then a complete blitz in 2012.


6 posted on 12/03/2008 12:02:18 PM PST by couchpotatoxxx12
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To: redk

Sounds to me like a scared liberal media mongrel whistling in the dark to keep his courage up.


7 posted on 12/03/2008 12:03:00 PM PST by Bertram3
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To: Tzimisce

” So far, there are plenty of RINOs and “Mavericks” who are willing to sell us out for 30 seconds of puff on the nightly news.”

X’s eleventy-billion to the 69th power. Hell one of them was running as the GOP nominee for president.


8 posted on 12/03/2008 12:03:20 PM PST by TheOgre
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To: redk

“Mr. Martin meant to do that.”

9 posted on 12/03/2008 12:03:22 PM PST by RichInOC (Obama/Biden '08: "We Are Not Ruled By Murderers, But Only--By Their Friends."--Rudyard Kipling)
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To: redk

Of course it’s important. It showed that Obama was AFRAID of Sarah Palin! He couldn’t go down there and hit it over the fence for Martin, he was too “busy” (or so the excuse goes). So Sarah went down there and hit it over the fence for Saxby.


10 posted on 12/03/2008 12:04:10 PM PST by deannadurbin
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To: redk
It says nothing about Barack Obama, who correctly smelled a loser and stayed far away from Martin's campaign

YouTube says otherwise.

11 posted on 12/03/2008 12:04:53 PM PST by Mojave (http://barackobamajokes.googlepages.com/obama_funny)
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To: redk

Translation:

It means a lot.

Conservatives win and moderates lose. The mainstream media bought and paid for Obama. Obama supporters already know they have been duped and don’t want to turn out for the dems any longer.


12 posted on 12/03/2008 12:08:43 PM PST by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: WayneS

Bingo, Sarah isn’t the silver bullet to fix this party, it needs a MAJOR “root” canal from the grassroots on up to the RINO one issue voters steering it. We need to get back to FISCAL CONSERVATISM, B. Goldwater style!!!


13 posted on 12/03/2008 12:10:24 PM PST by Troll_House_Cookies (Ironically, Chancellor Obama's first re-education camp will be in Alaska.)
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To: redk

Gee, didnt some special elections just before the 2006 midterms start going Dem? Back then, the press consensus was that this was the beginning of a sea change.


14 posted on 12/03/2008 12:11:01 PM PST by Mr Inviso
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To: deannadurbin
The author even went of his way to mention that this would have happened with or without Palin. Whether the article is right or wrong I find the fact that they think they need to smack us down today amusing.
15 posted on 12/03/2008 12:12:03 PM PST by redk
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To: Tzimisce
So far, there are plenty of RINOs and “Mavericks” who are willing to sell us out for 30 seconds of puff on the nightly news.

Are they counting McCain toward the Republican total?

16 posted on 12/03/2008 12:13:10 PM PST by mhx
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To: lonestar67
LOL... You must not actually know “Shameless”’s voting record... He's NO conservative... He's a McLame RINO... Having said that, I still prefer him over Martin...

We'll see how he votes... My guess is he'll do what he's always done... go along to get along...

17 posted on 12/03/2008 12:13:13 PM PST by bfh333 ("Hope"... "Change"... You better HOPE you have some CHANGE after the next 4 years!)
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To: Troll_House_Cookies

Yes.

Gov. Palin can be PART of the solution but there is no way she can shoulder, even with some help of a few “Bobby Jindals”, the majority of the load.

We have GOT to find some REAL conservatives to run in 2010 and beyond.


18 posted on 12/03/2008 12:13:45 PM PST by WayneS (Respect the 2nd Amendment; Repeal the 16th)
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To: redk
YOU'RE WRONG! What it says is that we need to re-capture the GOP agenda and wrest it away from the “moderates” (aka idiots). It says we now need to rehabilitate our party. It might take 8 years, maybe even 12 to get back to a philosophy of limited government, States’ rights, reductions in the Federal budget, tax reductions, limited government interference in private enterprise (i.e. no bailouts), a strong military, promotion of family values (no homosexual marriage, sex education in the schools, valuing home schooling, laws on abortion that reflect the true will of the people), strict interpretation of the Constitution (i.e. no legislating on the part of the judiciary). Have I left anything out? If we run on PRINCIPLES such as these and GOVERN accordingly, we will win elections most of the time. When we cave into “moderates” like McCain, we give the electorate no choice - it becomes a toss-up and, because of the novelty of Obama’s being Black, people say, “Oh what the hell, give the Black guy a chance because we're guilty of oppressing his people.”
19 posted on 12/03/2008 12:13:49 PM PST by veritas2002
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To: veritas2002

AMEN! Give the electorate a TRUE, distinctive choice and it falls on the side of the Conservatives... The GOP needs to STOP acting like DemonRATS...


20 posted on 12/03/2008 12:16:46 PM PST by bfh333 ("Hope"... "Change"... You better HOPE you have some CHANGE after the next 4 years!)
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To: bfh333

I defer to your judgement on the question because I really don’t know his record.

I do think the Georgia election became a subsidiary national referendum on the national election.

Therefore, I think the liberal media is playing his win as meaningless in order to defuse the understandable public back pedaling happening after Obama was elected.


21 posted on 12/03/2008 12:24:44 PM PST by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: redk

Whoever wrote this article, desperately wants it to be true. Sure, it may be true — but they REALLY WANT IT TO BE TRUE.

And you can smell it. They fear another 1994.


22 posted on 12/03/2008 12:25:03 PM PST by rom (Voted for Ron Paul in the primary. Voted against Obama in the general and FOR Palin.)
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To: redk

Will there be elections in any of the states whose governors and senators have been appointed to the Obama Administration? For the Senate seats, they have IL/DE/NY and govs in NM/AZ. All are, I’m sure, safely Dem.

The GA election wasn’t so much a reflection of GOP turn out as D’s failure to turn out. Without Obama on the ballot, all the blacks who’d have stood in line all day in November just couldn’t be bothered to come out this time. Still, Chambliss would have won if they had.

The GOP’s fortunes will come back when elected officials decide WHO they are as GOP members, and why they were sent to Congress in the first place. It certainly wasn’t to be a more moderate version of Democrats. When the GOP members start to stand for the party’s philosophy, they will win again.

From my observation, we lost a lot of young voters because the Republicans didn’t show them anything. A couple of my kids and friends’ kids who are philosophically right-leaning decided to vote either Dem or Libertarian or Constitution party. The GOP philosophy didn’t turn them off; how its elected officials behaved when entrusted with the power of their offices did.


23 posted on 12/03/2008 12:25:49 PM PST by EDINVA
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To: WayneS

>>We have GOT to find some REAL conservatives to run in 2010 and beyond.

What do you all think of John Thune? I think he has a 100% Conservative record from the American Conservative Union. He’s physically attractive and healthy looking, much more so than Barack Obama, and has a lovely family.

My only concern is he voted for the bailout. Bleah.


24 posted on 12/03/2008 12:25:50 PM PST by deannadurbin
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To: redk
But in the case of yesterday's Senate run-off in Georgia, it most certainly is not

Mmmm, yeah, it might be just a tad early to be whipping out the 'certainly' there. No, it might not be particularly significant at all, but there are two pretty important things the author leaves out or glosses over:

1. Obama said he would fight for Martin, and even handed over his GA apparatus to his campaign intact, but he didn't even make a cursory appearance in person. I suspect some of the Obamamania is already starting to fade, and either Obama or some of his handlers are trying to limit his appearances to preserve as much as they can for as long as they can.

2. Palin was roundly condemned by the "intelligentsia" of the left and the establishment right as a drain on McCain's campaign and a loser. Yet she manages to go to GA and rouse as much enthusiasm or more as she did at the McCain/Palin rallies. Not exactly what you would expect of a loser.

There is some significance out there, no doubt about it. Does it signal the start of a conservative resurgence? Probably not, but it sure does not indicate any confirmation of conservatism's death.

25 posted on 12/03/2008 12:26:14 PM PST by AzSteven ("War is less costly than servitude, the choice is always between Verdun and Dachau." Jean Dutourd)
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To: rom

What the Obama Win means for Conservative Prospects: Nothing. (unless he gets much of his agenda through.)


26 posted on 12/03/2008 12:26:35 PM PST by Ingtar (For the first time in my adult life, I am NOT proud of America.)
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To: redk

Couldn’t the same thing be said about Obama considering that nobody knows who he is and why he was elected????


27 posted on 12/03/2008 12:27:15 PM PST by bpjam (Any people wonder how so many German stood by while Hitler did what he did?)
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To: Troll_House_Cookies
We need to get back to FISCAL CONSERVATISM, B. Goldwater style!!!

I always enjoy the dichotomy on these threads.

"Conservatism wins everytime it's tried!"

"Yeah! Like Barry Goldwater!"

Er. Uh. Ahem.

28 posted on 12/03/2008 12:32:16 PM PST by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: deannadurbin
My only concern is he voted for the bailout. Bleah.

Politically, doing nothing was probably not an option. The big failure on the GOP side in all this was not coming out with a counter-proposal that was clear and convincing, and yet NOT a giveaway program.

Certainly the second version of the Bailout giveaway was less hideous than the initial version, and much of that was because of the GOP. However, the comparison is sort of like contrasting Lenin with Stalin - comparing between a moderately evil bloodbath and a totally evil bloodbath.

29 posted on 12/03/2008 12:32:26 PM PST by AzSteven ("War is less costly than servitude, the choice is always between Verdun and Dachau." Jean Dutourd)
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To: Chet 99

Is there a runoff in LA?


30 posted on 12/03/2008 12:38:40 PM PST by FlipWilson
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To: deannadurbin

I’m not very familiar with him. I will check him out, though.


31 posted on 12/03/2008 12:41:30 PM PST by WayneS (Respect the 2nd Amendment; Repeal the 16th)
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To: veritas2002

McCain is not a moderate, he is an egomaniac. McCain sides with the democrats because he gets a rush out of seeing favorable stories about himself in the NY Slimes and then being invited to appear on Meet The Depressed. If McCain thought being a conservative was the way to get the MSM to lick his arse, he would be to the right of Ghengis Kahn. . .or Jeeeeengis Kaaahn as John Kerry would say.


32 posted on 12/03/2008 12:43:14 PM PST by FlipWilson
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To: lonestar67

Chambliss is no conservative.

Helped grow the biggest Government ever,Initially supported the first”Comprehensive Immigration Reform” Bill, Couldn’t and can’t pull his snout out of the ‘ole Fed “earmarks” trough, voted for the “bail-out”... even though 60-70% of Georgians were and are against his stands on these and other issues. Conservative? I don’t think so... RHINO at best..

Conservatives had better get over this “nose holding while voting” thing or we’re doomed.


33 posted on 12/03/2008 12:43:56 PM PST by AvOrdVet ("Put the wagons in a circle for all the good it'll do")
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To: lonestar67
Chambliss voted FOR the bailout, CIR (Amnesty) and hung around with McCain... I don't need to say more...

The Dems had a DOG candidate that would have lost in the General Election if it had not been for the 3rd party...

The 0bama voters weren't going to vote for Martin... The only reason they did in the first place was because they were already at the polls voting for the 0ne. They were already back listing to Hip-hop and playing video games...

Don't read to much into the election...

34 posted on 12/03/2008 12:48:25 PM PST by bfh333 ("Hope"... "Change"... You better HOPE you have some CHANGE after the next 4 years!)
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To: AvOrdVet

And hopefully, ole Johnny was a watchin...

His turn comes in 2010 and we’re looking for someone to knock his a$$ off in the primary...


35 posted on 12/03/2008 12:50:32 PM PST by bfh333 ("Hope"... "Change"... You better HOPE you have some CHANGE after the next 4 years!)
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To: bfh333

I already told Isakson’s office as much... hope he has been paying attention...


36 posted on 12/03/2008 12:57:57 PM PST by AvOrdVet ("Put the wagons in a circle for all the good it'll do")
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To: sam_paine

Barry G. would never get elected today either, the single issue abortion voters would eat him up, they’d never vote for him. And that, is the root of this party’s problem.

My point was that we may want to embrace his message of small government and fiscal conservatism.


37 posted on 12/03/2008 1:06:03 PM PST by Troll_House_Cookies (Ironically, Chancellor Obama's first re-education camp will be in Alaska.)
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To: bfh333

this is not very courteous on my part but I think it should be said.

When we have two people who just joined FR telling us all what a true conservative is, I have to wonder if we are not being orchestrated out of ever voting Republican.

I have started talking more and more about the Unicorn Conservative Republican. He/she is out there somewhere if we will just stop voting Republican in this present election then the unicorn will emerge from the political forest and there will be much rejoicing.

I am skeptical and whether these posters are the particular ones doing it or not, I do think Obamabots did infiltrate internet boards and use the unicorn theory to stifle Republican voting.

I support a rhetorical rule that unicorn appeals can only be made during the primary process. If you make a “true conservative” argument on the eve of an election, then you are arguably working for the other side— whether you admit it or not.

I think we all do need to wise up.

The fact that we would seriously entertain allowing the senate to go 60 dem to hold out for the Unicorn is pretty compelling exigence for believing that your claims are either absurd or a concerted effort to help the other side.


38 posted on 12/03/2008 1:06:13 PM PST by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: redk
It would have been important. Georgia is a VERY red state. If we booted Chambliss, it would have likely been the end of the Republicans as viable party for a long time to come.
And, seriously, he deserves a good boot up his... for the bail out, for his immigration shenanigans, etc. But we were not stupid enough to replace a mediocre ‘Pubbie with a liberal Democrat.
39 posted on 12/03/2008 1:06:18 PM PST by Little Ray (Do we have a Plan B?)
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To: redk; All

Palin saved Saxby’s butt.

Bottom Line.

Saxby was unpopular on a few key issues like immigration, the bailout and agri-business.

Palin is the reason he won. She showed that she can get people to the polls for a fairly unpopular candidate and win big while doing so.

We got a fire-cracker on our hands in Palin and the politically ignorant are finally figuring that out.

tahDeetz


40 posted on 12/03/2008 1:10:50 PM PST by ebiskit (South Park Republican ( I see Red People ))
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To: lonestar67
The fact that I am a “newbie” bears no relevance... I have been coming to this board and been a lurker for years... I've always held jobs where I was only able to watch and read during the day without much interaction...

I understand what a REAGAN conservative is... I also understand that if you don't get up off your a$$ and try to change your party, then you deserve the candidate you get. The GA GOP ran Saxby against Cleland... Hell, not much of a choice there... Cleland spent 6 years voting lock-step with Clinton & Kennedy... good riddance...

I VOTED REPUBLICAN... And I went to the polls yesterday and voted for Chambliss... The GOP didn't give us the best choice, but I'd rather agree with the guy 60%-75% of the time and be satisfied that we can debate on the remainder... And I'm going to work my a$$ off over the next 2 years to make sure there's a candidate that runs against Isakson...

And thank you for listening... You don't have to be courteous... I suppose I haven't earned that... But none the less, I agree with your conclusion that we have to do what needs to be done to improve our party...

41 posted on 12/03/2008 1:17:46 PM PST by bfh333 ("Hope"... "Change"... You better HOPE you have some CHANGE after the next 4 years!)
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To: Troll_House_Cookies
Barry G. would never get elected today either.

Barry was a typical Libertarian, they look conservative on some issues, but fail miserably everywhere else. Look at his positions later in life, after he teamed up with his teeny bopper trophy wife.

42 posted on 12/03/2008 1:18:58 PM PST by itsahoot (We will have world government. Whether by conquest or consent. Looks like that question is answered)
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To: lonestar67

Hmm, must have struck a nerve somewhere... “the truth... you can’t handle the truth” saw that in a movie once (or twice), but it seems appropriate at the moment.


43 posted on 12/03/2008 1:20:02 PM PST by AvOrdVet ("Put the wagons in a circle for all the good it'll do")
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To: bfh333

Fair enough.

I appreciate and largely agree with your explanation of things.

I was using you and one other poster to make a point about how we might best go about changing things for the better.

I do want more conservative candidates in our high offices. I spent a lot of time suffering under RINO senators in Ohio.

I speak with some personal ignorance myself but we need to better understand how the Republicans pick candidates initially. We don’t seem to be getting good options up front.

I don’t want our good intentions to be used against us.


44 posted on 12/03/2008 1:26:49 PM PST by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: AvOrdVet

I’m not sure you are on to the truth and think I might be getting closer.

The perfect Conservative argument can be used to bring democrats to power. I think its hard to believe that this has not been an active strategy since at least 2006.

I think these criticisms have to be measured against the democratic alternative.


45 posted on 12/03/2008 1:28:32 PM PST by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: redk

The margin of victory is sign that pendulum is already swinging back in the GOP’s direction. I expected 2010 to be very good year for Republicans.


46 posted on 12/03/2008 1:43:18 PM PST by Ol' Sparky (Liberal Republicans are the greater of two evils)
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To: lonestar67

...I think these criticisms have to be measured against the democratic alternative...

You said it but you haven’t grasped it, your last statement is the reason we (conservatives)are in this position.

You can not win elections through fear (’06 & ‘08). You must stand for something and right now all I see is Dem and Dem Lite... the republicans veered so far towards left that I don’t think the party can recover.

Since my first vote (for Da Man) I busted my a$$ assisting the Repubs in getting total control of the House... the Senate... and wait for it... The White House, and what did they do with it.... Nothing of note besides the WOT.


47 posted on 12/03/2008 1:47:48 PM PST by AvOrdVet ("Put the wagons in a circle for all the good it'll do")
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To: AvOrdVet

I think saying nothing has been done is part of perhaps I hope passive cooperation with the Media that hypes Democratic party leftist politics.

There need to be specific alternatives spelled out in the primary process that bring more conservative candidates to the top ahead of moderate Republicans.

After that, I honestly don’t much care. We should install every Republican possible even if that means chugging toward socialism at 100 mph instead of 200 mph.

We all know how bad leftist, statist, socialist nonsense garbage is. But our principals are being played against us. The democratic congress of 2006 was a gift of angry conservatives upset about immigration. WEll.

Where is the reality check for us conservatives?

Letting democrats win cannot help us nor does it purify us as people keep lying toward that end.

The primaries are the only legitimate purification process.


48 posted on 12/03/2008 1:55:10 PM PST by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: lonestar67

I disagree, the current primary system is what got us McCain via northern Libs & so called Mods and the media, chugging a 100 mph towards socialism is still going towards socialism, and in the end “the lessor of two evils” is still evil.

The only thing that can reverse our current course... The Constitution and Principles.


49 posted on 12/03/2008 2:28:33 PM PST by AvOrdVet ("Put the wagons in a circle for all the good it'll do")
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To: redk

At the moment no one knows didly squat about Republican prospects. We’ll all know quite a bit after about a year of BO.


50 posted on 12/03/2008 3:15:01 PM PST by Malesherbes (Sauve Qui Peut)
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