Skip to comments.India, Pakistan: The Dynamics of Conflict
Posted on 12/03/2008 4:28:43 PM PST by jhpigott
December 3, 2008 | 1727 GMT
Summary Judging from the manner in which India is building a case for military action against Islamist militant facilities in Pakistan in response to the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai, it is likely that the Indians will exercise their option to use force. If and when that happens, it is likely to begin with artillery fire and airstrikes against militant camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Given that this is a red line for the Pakistanis, Islamabad is likely to respond, and the resulting situation could easily create a bigger security problem for India.
Analysis Although a military confrontation between India and Pakistan in the wake of the Nov. 26 militant attacks in Mumbai is not a foregone conclusion, the domestic situation within India and Islamabads likely inability to placate Indian concerns make such a confrontation a possibility. Furthermore, U.S. strikes against Islamist militant facilities in Pakistans northwestern tribal badlands and the North-West Frontier Province provide a precedent of sorts for India to take similar action across its northwestern border with Pakistan.
So what can be expected in the event of an outbreak of hostilities?
(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...
good read . . .
80% of Indians are LIVID and the current UPA government in Delhi could fall over this. Folks are FED UP with Islamic jehadists on India soil killing here and there indiscriminately and on a huge scale.
Agreed. I think Stratfor has hit the proverbial nail right on the proverbial head with their analysis of the current India/Pakistan situation.
The simple fact is that India is SERIOUSLY PI$$ED OFF right now - much like we were in the wake of 9/11. They demanded that the Paks turn over the prime suspect, and the Paki prez basically became an 11/26 troofer on live TV.
This is going to get hot before Christmas.
Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess. Perhaps we can take advantage of the situation and strike deeper into the tribal areas. And, perhaps, the Paki radicals in the ISI take over components of the nuclear arsenal. I’m sure the US is making preparing operational contingencies at this very second.
Regardless, the blood letting - unfortunately - needs to happen.
I think it’s going to be the Indian public that pushes the UPA into some type of military action against Pakistan. The UPA has been nortoriously soft on terrorism . . . like you said; your average Indian is fed up
UPA either pulls the trigger or the BJP party is going to do very well in the next election
niether the current Indian or Pakistani governments can afford to look weak IMO. They are both very weak in there own ways (Pak govt weakness comes from the instability and fractures in the community bwtn the moderates and militants and the Indian govt being weak in the sense they are perceived as push overs soft on terror)
Indians are demanding govt action and the Pakis are demanding their govt not give in to the Indian demands . . . bad combo
It is a rare time that I want to do exactly what the terrorists want. We should give them what they want.
Then the BJP will pull the trigger.
India is PO’d. The problem is, seems to me, that the Indians will not do anything small scale. I mean they are a pretty laid back people (I know a few and love them all, they are wonderful people).
The problem is that if they hold back until they are seriously tweaked, they might just totally go postal.
And that means no more Pakistan. Literally.